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Gold

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  • jamesd said:
    If you want protection from domestic inflation ensure that lots of your invested money is invested outside the UK so its value will go up if the value of the Pound goes down. On the opposite end of things, I used a currency hedged global tracker after brexit so that I'd be protected from the anticipated by me rise in the value of the Pound and that worked out nicely, increasing my global tracker net gain.
    Isn't that a sort of triple threat speculation on domestic inflation, that global inflation will be lower, and that this rule (habit or occasional apparent tendency may be more suitable) will hold true through any such period?
    UK equities are the asset class most related to UK inflation after NS&I linked certs (unavailable) and linkers (negative real yield and long duration risk). The FTSE 100 and All Share (capital only) have grown at rates close to nominal GDP since inception. At the large cap end there are a fair few cyclicals, which sometimes do well through inflationary periods, plus a lot of consumer goods and services businesses which arguably have strong pricing power and inelastic demand.
    Props for winning at timing though.
  • Very cliche, but 'it depends' :-)
    ETFs expose you to gold, but almost all ETFs will not let you get the actual gold if you want to retract it. 
    The actual physical metal is the safest way of owning, but it comes with premiums and possible storage issues, you can get into stablecoins to bypass that and still get the physical metal if you want, or sell quickly.
    Miner stocks are interesting for the longer run and they usually show an uplift when gold price rises.

    It is good to understand that the fiat price (euro/dollar) comparison with gold/precious metals in general are a bit tricky. In the 30s last century Germany, one oz of gold was billions of German Marks, but so was a bread. So fiat in that sense doesn't say a thing. you have the physical metal, when it is worth 1 euro or 100000000000000 euro, that is all relative to the state of the fiat financial system, not so much with gold itself.
  • neet
    neet Posts: 22 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10 Posts Combo Breaker
    Some thoughts from a quiet afternoon (mainly expanding on tebbins). Gold is a respectable asset class (a thing professional investors buy for 0-10% of a portfolio); but marmite. It is primarily seen as a (global, but in practice $) inflation hedge overlaid by geopolitics (scared people buy gold) and for Brits, £/$ exchange. How to buy is well covered above but note gold miners are a leveraged play - i.e. their share price will move up and DOWN by more than the gold price movement.
    Detractors fret over its low intrinsic value - its price a function of demand fed by irrational beliefs of a crowd and pays no yield. Supporters see a proven store of wealth, least printable (save perhaps crypto) & longer endured than any government "fiat" currency. In 1970 (inflation adjusted) it was 250$/toz; by 1980 - with a 1970 bond portfolio obliterated by inflation - it was $2000. But caution - by the time Volker had slain inflation it was $1000. It is priced on fallible inflation expectations and decimated by high real interest rates (interest rate minus inflation) & its future price is not just about how things WILL BE, BUT how they will be relative to expectations of the crowd. From here assumptions must proliferate in both columns.
    Since 2000 it has risen 4fold despite low inflation -driven by globalisation/chinese exporting deflation and weak domestic demand - persisting (against expectation, until now?) (one assumes) driven by falling real interest rates and then suppressed real rates under QE (Quantitative Easing i.e. central banks printing money to buy bonds, forcing up their price and driving down their yield). Barring recession rates will rise but inflation in the short term will rise faster;  central bank mandates demand it is curbed. (And inflation bears might not have noticed but QE gives central banks a new weapon against inflation - selling their bonds and destroying industrial quantities of money.)  Falling real interest rates may have one last hurrah but they should rise. The world bank estimate they have done so 7 times since 1353 - on average bouncing 3% (to+1.5%). This is bad for gold potentially taking it to 500-1000$ range. 
    I could say more about all those assumptions but to summarise here is a rationale for owning gold - "i dont know so i diversify". The benefit v high quality, lowly geared equities with pricing power (think tesco's spat over marmite) is however I suspect more tactical than rigorous.



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