Average age of death

sevenhills

Brenster said:

Well this is a cheery thread !!!

People need information to judge how much money they will need later in life. If many are in poor health in later life, it's unlikely that they will spend as much and they should be thinking about spending more money earlier.

hugheskevi

Linton said:

If you are interested in life expectancies I suggest you spend time looking at the data in https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies

In particular the "ex" values give you life expectancy at each age and the "lx" values are the number of people alive at that age starting from 100000 at age 0. 

You will see reference to period and cohort life expectancies - period being based on current death data and cohort based on expectations of future population health and medical advances.  Cohort is arguably more relevent since people dying now are far more likely to have smoked or worked in life shortening jobs for a significant amount of time than those dying in say 30 years time.  Sadly cohort data is only available for people born after 1980 however it is probably good enough for retirement planning purposes.

Another good source for Life Expectancy is the Pension Regulator Scheme Funding analysis data.

Members with Defined Benefit pensions tend to be better off than average, and wealth is a significant explanatory variable in life expectancy. There are differences between schemes of course - schemes with large number of manual roles in the past (engineering, mining) are likely to have lower assumptions than white-collar schemes (insurance, banking, etc). But overall I think the assumptions being made by professional actuaries about the life expectancy of their members are well worth taking into account alongside the general population analysis of the ONS. The latest publication says:

At the median, the assumed life expectancy of a future male pensioner currently aged 45 for Tranches 10 and 13 is 89.8 and 89 years, respectively.

Similarly, the median life expectancy of a future female pensioner currently aged 45 for Tranches 10 and 13 is 92 and 91 years, respectively. 

MaxiRobriguez

The difficulty with playing averages with retirement planning is the impact of getting it wrong is massive. It's not a sliding scale, you either run out of money or you don't.

Average age should only play a part in investment strategies by adding +20 years to it, just in case. My portfolio should see me through to 100 in a worst case scenario, but I don't actually expect to live that long, it's just the risk of ending up with £0 in early 90's and still being alive is a grim reality to process.

sevenhills

MaxiRobriguez said:

My portfolio should see me through to 100 in a worst case scenario, but I don't actually expect to live that long, it's just the risk of ending up with £0 in early 90's and still being alive is a grim reality to process.

But its never zero, you would have the state pension and also a PIP payment, which is a sizable sum, so long as you are not in a care home.

pip895

sevenhills said:

MaxiRobriguez said:

My portfolio should see me through to 100 in a worst case scenario, but I don't actually expect to live that long, it's just the risk of ending up with £0 in early 90's and still being alive is a grim reality to process.

But its never zero, you would have the state pension and also a PIP payment, which is a sizable sum, so long as you are not in a care home.

Still pretty grim and something most would be more than willing to forgo expensive holidays and new cars to avoid.  Of course if you have an expensive home then equity release/downsizing are always a possibility so reduce the spectre of that further.

ex-pat_scot

pip895 said:

sevenhills said:

MaxiRobriguez said:

My portfolio should see me through to 100 in a worst case scenario, but I don't actually expect to live that long, it's just the risk of ending up with £0 in early 90's and still being alive is a grim reality to process.

But its never zero, you would have the state pension and also a PIP payment, which is a sizable sum, so long as you are not in a care home.

Still pretty grim and something most would be more than willing to forgo expensive holidays and new cars to avoid.  Of course if you have an expensive home then equity release/downsizing are always a possibility so reduce the spectre of that further.

The thing is that you would not deliberately run down your DC funds and savings to zero and keep spending at the same rate, even in the teeth of your dwindling pot. 
The reality is that you would probably adjust your spending / lifestyle to suit your available funds and your prospects. 
Of course there is a world of difference between having a £1m pot that is broadly sustaining £40,000 pa withdrawal (on top of your SP), vs a £50,000 pot that is sustaining £2,000 pa on top of SP. The latter will hardly have much fat to trim if market conditions worsen, whereas the former can accommodate a fair bit of discretionary spend reduction.

Thrugelmir

hugheskevi said:

ukdw said:

A bit like average life expectancy getting later the older you get (as averages are dragged down by people who die young)
 I suspect that healthy life expectancy works in the same way.

A guy in his 60s in a 5 mile trail race I ran on Wednesday night finished in 37 minutes - running faster than 7 and a half minute miles over trails and hills at that age is impressive, and I would say he looked like he was in his 40s from his appearance.

A guy I worked with some years ago was fit as a fiddle. Teetotaller, never ever smoked, no excess bodyweight. At 39 developed an incurable brain tumor. Spent the last 3 months of his life in a hospice. We all live our daily lives hanging by a thread. Make the most of every day. As it maybe our last. 

Malthusian

MaxiRobriguez said:

The difficulty with playing averages with retirement planning is the impact of getting it wrong is massive. It's not a sliding scale, you either run out of money or you don't.

It kind of is a sliding scale because most people would slash their expenditure to stop their drawdown fund bleeding to death.

Or annuitise or use equity release. Or all of the above.

Linton

Thrugelmir said:

hugheskevi said:

ukdw said:

A bit like average life expectancy getting later the older you get (as averages are dragged down by people who die young)
 I suspect that healthy life expectancy works in the same way.

A guy in his 60s in a 5 mile trail race I ran on Wednesday night finished in 37 minutes - running faster than 7 and a half minute miles over trails and hills at that age is impressive, and I would say he looked like he was in his 40s from his appearance.

A guy I worked with some years ago was fit as a fiddle. Teetotaller, never ever smoked, no excess bodyweight. At 39 developed an incurable brain tumor. Spent the last 3 months of his life in a hospice. We all live our daily lives hanging by a thread. Make the most of every day. As it maybe our last. 

The mothers of two people I know reached their 100th birthday this year.  Dont spend today what you may need tomorrow.

SouthCoastBoy

Linton said:

Thrugelmir said:

hugheskevi said:

ukdw said:

A bit like average life expectancy getting later the older you get (as averages are dragged down by people who die young)
 I suspect that healthy life expectancy works in the same way.

A guy in his 60s in a 5 mile trail race I ran on Wednesday night finished in 37 minutes - running faster than 7 and a half minute miles over trails and hills at that age is impressive, and I would say he looked like he was in his 40s from his appearance.

A guy I worked with some years ago was fit as a fiddle. Teetotaller, never ever smoked, no excess bodyweight. At 39 developed an incurable brain tumor. Spent the last 3 months of his life in a hospice. We all live our daily lives hanging by a thread. Make the most of every day. As it maybe our last. 

The mothers of two people I know reached their 100th birthday this year.  Dont spend today what you may need tomorrow.

The dichotomy of life. I think the morale of the story is live for today with an eye on the future, but don't wish your life away and say, "when I retire...", just do it now. I know I am definitely guilty of putting too much emphasis on the future. I need to change my thinking, covid has helped me realise how fragile everything is.