Average age of death

sevenhills

Just reading about the £1,000 per week for a care home and a poster thinking about downsizing by the age of 80.

Down-sizing at 80 sounded quite optimistic to me.

"From 2017 to 2019 healthy life expectancy (HLE) at birth in the UK for males was 62.9 years, showing no significant change since 2014 to 2016; however, HLE for females showed a significant decrease from 63.7 years in 2014 to 2016 to 63.3 years in 2017 to 2019

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/bulletins/healthstatelifeexpectanciesuk/2017to2019

That 62.9 figure is quite shocking, since I only have 3 years to go, with UK life expectancy at 81.2 perhaps we should take the figure with a pinch of salt!

It does make you think about what we should plan for?

comeandgo

Your heading states average age of death yet the statistics show average age for healthy life expectancy.  There seems to be many years of life while you are regarded as unhealthy.

theoretica

sevenhills said:

That 62.9 figure is quite shocking, since I only have 3 years to go

But the 62.9 figure will include everyone who fell ill or had a life-changing accident when young - if you reach 60 healthy, than an average which includes people who fall ill at younger ages is not what you personally should be looking at - you want the average only for people who were healthy are 60.

The average life expectancy of 81 - what does that mean for someone who is 90?  That they will probably die in -9 years?  Clearly not...  if you only look at people who are 90 some will live 1 month, others 10 years - that particular group of people will have a life expectancy of over 90!

QrizB

The data table is more useful, IMHO.

Assuming you are now 59 and in good health, and a male living in England, it seems to suggest that you can expect to live for 27.33 years and for 16.69 of those years to be healthy.

(I might be reading that wrong, of course.)

HeyYeah

There is a difference between HLE at birth, and HLE at 80. Your life expectancy increases as you age, since you have survived all sorts of things. An 80 year old man lives to 89 on average, while a 60 year old man lives to 85 on average.Try this calculator https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07
It doesn't take into account the 'healthy' aspect though!

ukdw

A bit like average life expectancy getting later the older you get (as averages are dragged down by people who die young)
 I suspect that healthy life expectancy works in the same way.
If average healthy life expectancy at birth is about 63, but at 65 it is about 75, then I presume if you reach 59 healthily then your average healthy life expectancy is probably closer to 70 than 63.

sevenhills

ukdw said:

A bit like average life expectancy getting later the older you get (as averages are dragged down by people who die young)
 I suspect that healthy life expectancy works in the same way.
If average healthy life expectancy at birth is about 63, but at 65 it is about 75, then I presume if you reach 59 healthily then your average healthy life expectancy is probably closer to 70 than 63.

Yes that explains it better. I always difficult to gauge my own health, having had a biopsy for prostate cancer, but nothing was found.

So I am a healthy 59-year-old, but ill health can affect us all rather quickly.

hugheskevi

ukdw said:

A bit like average life expectancy getting later the older you get (as averages are dragged down by people who die young)
 I suspect that healthy life expectancy works in the same way.

And it is important to remember that around 70% of those aged about 60 are overweight, whilst about 15% smoke. Only about 60% of those aged about 60 are active, Only about 30% are eating 5+ portions of fruit and vegetables per day. So a lot of the pool of people for whom the averages are calculated are not in good health and not looking after themselves.

So if you are alive and well at 60, are active with a healthy weight and diet, although there are never any guarantees, you have much better chances of many years of healthy life expectancy than the very large numbers who are not looking after themselves. The average number of years of healthy life expectancy at that point would be about 13 for a man.

A guy in his 60s in a 5 mile trail race I ran on Wednesday night finished in 37 minutes - running faster than 7 and a half minute miles over trails and hills at that age is impressive, and I would say he looked like he was in his 40s from his appearance.

Notepad_Phil

The ONS have a life expectancy calculator at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07

That calculator currently says that an average male of 59 has a life expectancy of 84, but also has a 1 in 4 chance of living to at least 92. For a female of 59 those figures are 87 years and 94 years.

sevenhills

hugheskevi said:

A guy in his 60s in a 5 mile trail race I ran on Wednesday night finished in 37 minutes - running faster than 7 and a half minute miles over trails and hills at that age is impressive, and I would say he looked like he was in his 40s from his appearance.

Some older cyclists just keep going and going, I was in the top 20% in some races in my 40s, now I struggle to do a park run due to arthritis, but not given up hope of running some more.

Linton

Average life expectancies are not a good basis on which to plan retirement.  You have a 50% chance of living longer which I would have thought is a level of risk beyond what most poeople would be happy to accept.  A 10% risk level would take you to well into your 90s.  10% is a higher level of risk than people appear to use for SWRs.