USS - General discussion

gwt1965

Might it have something to do with moving into the new DB benefit accrual year (which runs 1 April to 31 March) and revaluation of benefits for inflation? Increase this year is only 1.7% I think. The modeller may have been factoring in higher (2.5%) increases. Just a thought. I’m sure something similar has happened in previous years. 

Barralad77

gwt1965 said:

Might it have something to do with moving into the new DB benefit accrual year (which runs 1 April to 31 March) and revaluation of benefits for inflation? Increase this year is only 1.7% I think. The modeller may have been factoring in higher (2.5%) increases. Just a thought. I’m sure something similar has happened in previous years. 

Presumably it is due to the arrival of the new tax year, but I still can’t make the numbers make sense. I have a detailed breakdown of the various ‘parts’ of my pension from last year [the ‘parts’ are the contributions made (1) 2003-2011, (2) 2011-2016, and (3) 2916-date]. The breakdown included specific values and associated factors (i.e., each part had an unreduced value and also an ERF, which allows you to calculate the reduced value at whatever age). Up until yesterday the figures in the benefit illustrator matched my calculations using the information in the breakdown, and there was no annual increase factored into my calculations. But today, the figure given in the benefit modeller is around £800 per year lower (for any given retirement age) than yesterday. If anything, I was expecting to have the values (whether from my own calcs or the modeller - it didn’t matter, as they were essentially the same) increase this month (whether that’s by 1.7% or 2.5%). The last thing I was expecting was to see the benefits go down. This does question the validity of the benefit modeller, doesn’t it? What’s the point of telling people to use the modeller - and see a value of X - only to then tell them it’s considerably less than X a day later (or possibly not tell them, as is the case; if someone checked the value on 31/03 and saw it was X they might not check it again for a while, and in the interm start making plans etc.). If the figures given in the modeller can be so far out then it really isn’t especially useful in my opinion.

gwt1965

If there were no annual increases factored into your calculations then you weren’t comparing like with like because the modeller would be factoring in annual increases. 

The modeller is an approximation. I wouldn’t set too much store by it. The only really accurate figure you’ll get is what’s on your retirement quotation when you request it. Mine was 4.5% higher than what the modeller was showing.

Twigwidge

I had a retirement quote through a few weeks back which was significantly lower than what the modeller was showing, interestingly now the figures on the modeller pretty much match my retirerment quote, give or take a few pounds, so it looks as if they have tweaked the model in some way...obviously not in our favour  

Barralad77

Twigwidge said:

I had a retirement quote through a few weeks back which was significantly lower than what the modeller was showing, interestingly now the figures on the modeller pretty much match my retirerment quote, give or take a few pounds, so it looks as if they have tweaked the model in some way...obviously not in our favour  

Likewise, a few weeks ago I got a quote for the end of March (this year). That quote was a few £hundred less than what the modeller was showing at the time. Today, the modeller is showing a figure that’s a few £hundred less than the quote! The modeller is, I appreciate, only an approximation of the final figure but it seems rather useless in terms of planning for the future (unless a £grand - or more - a year less is neither here nor there for you). 

Barralad77

Last one from me today (promise). I’ve just checked the modeller again and the numbers have changed since 08.30 this morning. They’ve all gone up by a couple of £hundred sometime in the last 3 hours. Not to where they were yesterday, but better than they were at breakfast.

Twigwidge

Barralad77 said:

Last one from me today (promise). I’ve just checked the modeller again and the numbers have changed since 08.30 this morning. They’ve all gone up by a couple of £hundred sometime in the last 3 hours. Not to where they were yesterday, but better than they were at breakfast.

Same with me just checked now, I really don't know what to believe but I guess I will work with the quote I received as this is supposed to be the more accurate, they are clearly messing with the modeler this morning, hopefully it will get some consistancy over the next few days 

Asimovs_nightfall

Late to the revised figures party, but perhaps it was an April Fool trick?  You know, it is April and the USS has been taking us for fools for the last few years. Ah well. 

Twigwidge

They must be playing with the model because my forcast has dropped even further this morning my pension has dropped by £75 per month and my lump sum by a further £6,000 from yesterday, I did ring through to USS and their opinion is that it is probably due to a combination of underperformance in the investments market and the fact that the model is centred around an uplift of 2.5% per year and this year it was only 1.7%. Whatever the reason it makes planning for retirement more difficult if the model is changing so much, I have just requested a final pension quote which should be far more accurate

Barralad77

Same here. Disappointing to hear they think it’s ‘probably’ due to something. Why the uncertainty? Anyway, I’m none the wiser. I used the modeller on Monday to see what pension I’d receive if taking it in December. Today, that figure is 5.5% lower than it was on Monday. A difference (between the expected uplift and actual uplift) of only 0.8% doesn’t seem to account for anywhere close to the level of difference between Monday and today, but doubtless I’m missing something.