Is This a Good Time to Fix Domestic Fuel Prices?

MK65

As per the subject, is this a good time to sign up for a fixed price dual fuel energy tariff?

My existing 2 year fixed rate tariff expires at the end of August. I am in MSE's Cheap Energy Club - I got my current deal through that at a cheaper price than EDF could offer me directly, (how does that work?!).

I have always liked the idea of fixing the tariff price, (obviously usage affects the final cost), for budgeting, and I think that I saved quite a bit over the current contract by fixing, but the difference between the Fixed Rates and Standard Variable tariffs is wider than I have seen before, (SV being significantly cheaper).

ISTR reading that world fuel, (oil?), prices are at a high point at the moment after the initial Covid related lows? One suggestion put to me was to initially move to Standard Variable, and then change to whatever Fixed Price tariffs were on offer at the time if the SV price goes up - but I would have thought that in that scenario the cost of fixing would also rise as well? Are domestic energy prices expected to increase significantly in the next 2 to 3 years?

Regarding usage: many people who worked from home during the past year's lockdowns etc and have since returned to the "office" would have a distorted year of potentially higher than usual domestic consumption, I spent a long time working from home since the first lockdown and then retired - so my past year's consumption record should be a fairly accurate prediction of consumption going forward.

So, is it a good idea to sign up for a multi year Fixed Rate dual energy tariff at the moment?

Advice and opinions please?

Tallerdave

A lot of contributors on here find that separate suppliers gives a lower total cost. Some of the best value suppliers only do one of the fuels (eg: my suppliers Zog & Symbio).

So whilst fixing might be ok, I'd say no to dual fuel.

[Deleted User]

If predicting future energy prices was that easy, then suppliers would not go out of business. In the short term, it has been forecast that the Ofgem price cap will increase by at least £100 in October. Fixed prices will undoubtedly follow.

MK65

Thanks for the comments so far.

Because of some bad experiences with smaller suppliers in the past, (I can remember back to the home energy deregulation in the late 1980s or early 90s), I prefer to stay with the big names - even if it means paying a little bit more, (not always more though!). I also prefer to have a single supplier for both - again, just my preference.

@Dolor

I agree that being able to accurately predict future energy price trends would be great! What I was looking for was any advice on trends and predicted/known events etc. Your advice about the forecast Ofgem increase in October is exactly the sort of info that I'm looking for - thanks 

[Deleted User]

This link shows the change in gas wholesale prices. This is some evidence that gas prices are levelling off which will also impact on electricity prices.

https://energy.guylipman.com/sm/gastracker

MK65

@DolorThanks for the link. Do you know if there is an easy way to tell which region, (A to P), you live in?

bristolleedsfan

MK65 said:

@DolorThanks for the link. Do you know if there is an easy way to tell which region, (A to P), you live in?

https://www.guylipman.com/octopus/formulas.html

niktheguru

MK65 said:

Thanks for the comments so far.

Because of some bad experiences with smaller suppliers in the past, (I can remember back to the home energy deregulation in the late 1980s or early 90s), I prefer to stay with the big names - even if it means paying a little bit more, (not always more though!). I also prefer to have a single supplier for both - again, just my preference.

@Dolor

I agree that being able to accurately predict future energy price trends would be great! What I was looking for was any advice on trends and predicted/known events etc. Your advice about the forecast Ofgem increase in October is exactly the sort of info that I'm looking for - thanks 

It is definitely in most peoples best interests to fix currently. Prices have gone up massively in the last 12 months, and will go up further by october. Whether they go down after that is anyones guess.
I would suggest fixing with suppliers who have low exit fees. That way you are protected, and if the prices plummet, you can pay the small exit fee and take up their offer. Given you want to restrict yourself to big suppliers and only duel fuel, you'll be paying a premium anyway, so it shouldn't make a huge difference.

bristolleedsfan

niktheguru said:

MK65 said:

Thanks for the comments so far.

Because of some bad experiences with smaller suppliers in the past, (I can remember back to the home energy deregulation in the late 1980s or early 90s), I prefer to stay with the big names - even if it means paying a little bit more, (not always more though!). I also prefer to have a single supplier for both - again, just my preference.

@Dolor

I agree that being able to accurately predict future energy price trends would be great! What I was looking for was any advice on trends and predicted/known events etc. Your advice about the forecast Ofgem increase in October is exactly the sort of info that I'm looking for - thanks 

I would suggest fixing with suppliers who have low exit fees.

I would suggest fixing with suppliers who have currently kept  1 and 2 year fixed rates at /slightly below current energy cap levels e.g EON Next direct via its website who also have no exit fees or cheaper depending on customer service reputation requirements

Inigo_Montoya

prices have already gone up a lot over the past few months so personally I'd be fairly wary of fixing right now

Ive been doing cheap energy club checks quite regularly over the past few months for 3 different properties so Ive seen how prices have been climbing recently at quite an alarming rate TBH

I guess they could go up even more ?

personally I dont think I'd fix right now - I probably would have even  just a few weeks ago

Given the huge price rises I expect a lot more people are going to really struggle to pay their bills next winter

MK65

Thanks to all for your replies and advice/opinions. The majority, both here and on another forum where I asked the same question lean towards fixing now before another expected increase in October - though @Inigo_Montoya 's "dissenting" reply is exactly why I asked the question in the first place, so thanks for that!

FWIW, I have gone for a fixed until March 2024 deal with British Gas via MSE's Cheap Energy Club - they quoted, (and I checked their figures on my current consumption), only about £5 more per month to fix when compared against my existing supplier's Standard Variable offer. The existing supplier was quoting £18 per month more than their Standard Variable to fix until August 2024.