How do you manage your stock alerts?

Huggy_Beard

JohnWinder said:

Huggy_Beard said:

That helps me with this specific example. I'd however like to understand what should guide me in setting up the parameters, and go beyond just single specific examples.

I think the answer would be the same, whatever figures you gave. Having chosen your investments because you understand their characteristics and have a sense of their long term history and gyrations (or not), what price movements could come as a surprise that would make you change course with your strategy?

I guess I'd have to look at what percentage drops it has had in the past, establish which ones were most significant, and over how many days did the largest drops occur. 

Of course, it's hard on a downward slope to know when it will end, and you don't want to sell and then find out you were at the bottom, and things are going to rally as fast as they fell, and I guess that's the problem. But I just want to be aware of what is happening. If I see things levelling out and looking as positive as i think they'll get, for example, I might decide (based on life circumstances) that I don't want to worry about my portfolio performance for the next 12 months, so I'll cut and run for that period, and watch the market to consider a point at which I may begin to reinvest.

Prism

Huggy_Beard said:

PS I'm not in the accumulation phase. I'm in the "I have made what feels like a lot from interest in the last year, and don't want to watch it all disappear" phase.

What you have made in the last year may seem like a lot but if you want to make returns of 1000%+ over the long term you need to stay invested really rather than selling out whenever you feel there may be a crash.

bostonerimus

Huggy_Beard said:

I'm interested to know what apps you might use to monitor stock performance, and what are the most meaningful triggers you have for notifications.

I have savings in a few different S&S ISA funds, and recently decided to follow the individual stocks that constituted the largest parts of those funds.
The app I use is called MarketCue but I know there are others that might be more useful. Marketcue lets me bundle stocks to follow, but it doesn't give an aggregate report on the bundle - still the only way to review the fund's performance is manually logging into their customer portal and understanding the data. Currently, I get an overview and have set each stock to a 10% daily drop as the trigger alert. Maybe that's too high? How would I know? 

I know that with my current setup, I can't suddenly sell/buy on a whim, but I want to get alerted if the whole fund finds itself on a downward trajectory, so that if it feels like the whole market is on a downward trajectory, I can move all/some of my savings into cash until I feel more comfortable having the savings invested in this way.

I'd also like to know how to evaluate acceptable performance parameters. For example, is a three-day consistent daily drop of 2% for the fund as a whole a sign that should worry me? 

So I'm keen to know how others do it, and how do you calibrate it so that you understand the information, and you're not being warned too late or too early?

When I was in the accumulation phase I simply set a rebalancing threshold of +/-5% deviation from my 60/40 portfolio. Now that I'm retired I'm implementing a "rising glide path" for my stock allocation by doing nothing. If you are monitoring stocks inside funds you own I think you run the risk of "not seeing the wood for the trees". You can come up with a multitude of metrics and portfolio management strategies, but IMO they are mostly psychological crutches to give you the illusion that you have more control than you actually do. 

AlanP_2

You probably also want to sell before the rest of the world does and markets fall.

Some people thought Covid would be big and so sold to cash in early 2020 then bought back in once markets had fallen, others sold and mistimed or didn't buy back in at all.

Market Timing at the end of the day. Some will get it right some of the time, others won't.

Personally I invest at my chosen risk / volatility level and take what I am given, making decisions based on my needs not the current market situation.

TweetnDave

The problem with market timing is you have to be right twice... when you sell and when you buy back in everytime you do it. The gains you might make are going to be small in terms of percentage. Try this - google: "market timing game"   there are several sites that run simulations over a random 10 year period of the S&P500 market, you click to sell out and buy back in.

 Play a few runs of it, where you are in profit at the end - see by how much, it usually won't be by much and the risks you have taken are hefty.   (I do not have enough posts to link directly)

eastmidsaver

HL have a watchlist bit on their app which i used to use. was pretty straightforward.

Thrugelmir

Huggy_Beard said:

PS I'm not in the accumulation phase. I'm in the "I have made what feels like a lot from interest in the last year, and don't want to watch it all disappear" phase.

Derisk the portfolio a little. Assets have varying degrees of volatility. 

JohnWinder

Huggy_Beard said:

  But the fact remains that you can stop yourself losing a lot of money if you decide to bank it. I'm far more concerned about losing what I've gained than about losing an opportunity to gain more.

.. I'd like to be sufficiently conscious to identify a significant drop in my investment value as soon as it happens, ....

... If it has been dropping consistently, I don't want some random news item being the thing that prompts me to check.

OK, that's a bit different from the original post where you wanted to move to cash until you felt more comfortable.

What you're now hinting at is an approach Zwecher's book Retirement Portfolios: Theory, Construction and Management suggests, which might give it some legitimacy in some people's eyes. Namely, one's assets are a bit short of one's needs so you put some of them at more than a comfortable risk (you were at this point with your high equity % that has returned handsomely over recent months) hoping they will boost your portfolio value to where it needs to be. When that is achieved, you de-risk as you're proposing to do to a comfortable level; or if the market goes the wrong way before you achieve what you need, then you have a 'loss floor' which you sell out at.

Either way, I can't help you with any app. Sorry.

Huggy_Beard

Folks, I appreciate the comments on this, it's helpful as I think about these things (even though we're discussing the question-behind-the-question a bit, that's OK!).

Can anyone tell me - I've never reallocated the funds within my ISA products before, and there is a CASH option in there. I'm kind of assuming that I can reallocate the funds to CASH if I just want to stop having my money invested in the other funds - is that right?

 If I move things to cash, will I be penalized for this - either taxed on it, or have it count against my ISA allowance for the year if I move it back, or have the company I'm investing with charge me for moving the money?

Notepad_Phil

Huggy_Beard said:

Can anyone tell me - I've never reallocated the funds within my ISA products before, and there is a CASH option in there. I'm kind of assuming that I can reallocate the funds to CASH if I just want to stop having my money invested in the other funds - is that right?

 If I move things to cash, will I be penalized for this - either taxed on it, or have it count against my ISA allowance for the year if I move it back, or have the company I'm investing with charge me for moving the money?

You've not mentioned which platform you are with, but with the platforms I know then you would just sell the funds and they will go to cash. You then keep them in cash until you want to buy some new funds, and as long as you keep the cash in the ISA then it's fine and it won't count against your ISA allowance even if you wait till the next tax year before buying anything new.

It's unlikely that there would be any penalties for holding cash (though the platform is very unlikely to give you any interest and they may actually still charge you the platform fee on the cash position).