Tool for knowing when to buy/sell?

bostonerimus

wmb194 said:

What you're asking about is called technical analysis and it's been around forever. You usually use multiple signals in conjunction with one another and can include RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands, moving averages of various durations, candlestick patterns and all sorts. No doubt you can Google a beginners guide but there's no magic bullet for these things.

Yes, it's mostly numerology.

kinger101

bostonerimus said:

wmb194 said:

What you're asking about is called technical analysis and it's been around forever. You usually use multiple signals in conjunction with one another and can include RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands, moving averages of various durations, candlestick patterns and all sorts. No doubt you can Google a beginners guide but there's no magic bullet for these things.

Yes, it's mostly numerology.

I'm surprised people still use these.  With machine learning, it should be possible to build an even better model for predicting what has already happened 
  

Type_45

If stocks and bonds crash, what's the safest thing to invest in within a UK ISA?

Treasuries, I've read? Any specific suggestions?

EthicsGradient

I find the best thing is the Tool for Anticipating Risks and Decision Information for Shares. There's more inside it than you realise from first glance ... 

coyrls

Type_45 said:

If stocks and bonds crash, what's the safest thing to invest in within a UK ISA?

Treasuries, I've read? Any specific suggestions?

Treasuries = Gilts = Government Bonds.  There is no magic.

kinger101

EthicsGradient said:

I find the best thing is the Tool for Anticipating Risks and Decision Information for Shares. There's more inside it than you realise from first glance ... 

I've been using the Tool for Evaluating Assets, Liabilities and Equities Against Volatility - Eliminating Speculation

Type_45

bostonerimus said:

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Tools can help but if the magic tool was out there everybody would use it. Moving averages are better used for topping up with spare cash not these 50 and 200 day crossover methods. Look at the link the 50 in blue crosses over the 200 in red right at the bottom of the correction in March to give a sell and doesn't give a buy signal until July. Hopeless. !! 
Much better off adding spare cash at the 50 day average or if the index is near the 200 top up there. Nothing perfect about this either. Institutions used to top up at the 200 day years ago.
E1O3takUcAI655l (700×312) (twimg.com)
EzarU-9VgAM4T6w (881×609) (twimg.com)
What can be used as an alert is the distance between the 200 day average and the index itself. Today this is the situation and it's more than likely to correct but who knows when. ? It's been over extended for weeks now.
EzargtuVEAYAhMs (892×612) (twimg.com)
There's dozens of indicators on charting packages out there for free and even on your brokers website. Most are used for determining overbought and oversold conditions in short and long term timeframes. Again today looking at this link you can see RSI MACD and Stoc all extended but can stay extended until the index drops. Still there is uses for them just a case of what you want them for. 
$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

The article doesn't mention the 50 day. Only the 200 day.

If you look only at the index and the 200 then it does seem to be quite accurate as a sell signal?

Perhaps less accurate as a buy signal, as by that time a lot of upside has been missed out on.

My buy signal was always when I got my pay check and rebalancing when I diverged from my set asset allocation, but I think the rebalancing wasn't  that useful. You are really only financially independent when you actually stop worrying about money and the sooner you do that the better.

You think what's going on is sustainable?

Zombie companies, printing money which is inflating house prices and stocks, millions of people on furlough...

If you're invested in the stock market, and you aren't worried, then good luck to you.

I have a high tolerance to risk. But I'm seriously considering going into cash (within my ISA) until I figure out what to invest in. (I'm currently in VLS100).

eskbanker

kinger101 said:

EthicsGradient said:

I find the best thing is the Tool for Anticipating Risks and Decision Information for Shares. There's more inside it than you realise from first glance ... 

I've been using the Tool for Evaluating Assets, Liabilities and Equities Against Volatility - Eliminating Speculation

Personally I'm using Modelling Your Shares, Trusts and Investment Companies with Methodically Engineered Graphs, but have been finding it no more reliable than gazing into a crystal ball....

bostonerimus

Type_45 said:

If stocks and bonds crash, what's the safest thing to invest in within a UK ISA?

Treasuries, I've read? Any specific suggestions?

Stocks and bonds will crash and they will recover. Timing those events is risky. I've found that spending less than you earn, keeping 6 month's to a year's spending in cash, regularly investing in a portfolio of stock and bond trackers or diverse multi-asset funds with asset allocations appropriate to your circumstances and rebalancing through the ups and downs has worked well over the past 30 years.

If stocks crash you might think about investing in stocks, but if you rebalance you will do that automatically.

bostonerimus

Type_45 said:

bostonerimus said:

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Tools can help but if the magic tool was out there everybody would use it. Moving averages are better used for topping up with spare cash not these 50 and 200 day crossover methods. Look at the link the 50 in blue crosses over the 200 in red right at the bottom of the correction in March to give a sell and doesn't give a buy signal until July. Hopeless. !! 
Much better off adding spare cash at the 50 day average or if the index is near the 200 top up there. Nothing perfect about this either. Institutions used to top up at the 200 day years ago.
E1O3takUcAI655l (700×312) (twimg.com)
EzarU-9VgAM4T6w (881×609) (twimg.com)
What can be used as an alert is the distance between the 200 day average and the index itself. Today this is the situation and it's more than likely to correct but who knows when. ? It's been over extended for weeks now.
EzargtuVEAYAhMs (892×612) (twimg.com)
There's dozens of indicators on charting packages out there for free and even on your brokers website. Most are used for determining overbought and oversold conditions in short and long term timeframes. Again today looking at this link you can see RSI MACD and Stoc all extended but can stay extended until the index drops. Still there is uses for them just a case of what you want them for. 
$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

The article doesn't mention the 50 day. Only the 200 day.

If you look only at the index and the 200 then it does seem to be quite accurate as a sell signal?

Perhaps less accurate as a buy signal, as by that time a lot of upside has been missed out on.

My buy signal was always when I got my pay check and rebalancing when I diverged from my set asset allocation, but I think the rebalancing wasn't  that useful. You are really only financially independent when you actually stop worrying about money and the sooner you do that the better.

You think what's going on is sustainable?

Zombie companies, printing money which is inflating house prices and stocks, millions of people on furlough...

If you're invested in the stock market, and you aren't worried, then good luck to you.

I have a high tolerance to risk. But I'm seriously considering going into cash (within my ISA) until I figure out what to invest in. (I'm currently in VLS100).

Your trepidation says that you are invested with too much risk. If you can't deal with a 20% to 50% drop in value if you are 100% equities then you need to change your asset allocation. Going 100% cash might be a good move, but it also might cause you to miss out on future gains and you will have to time your re-entry into the market. Drastic swings in your asset allocation are rarely a good thing. Come up with a cash, stock, and bond allocation that you can live with through ups and downs and that historical statistics suggest will get you to where you want to be. All we have is history, speculation and waving a finger in the air don't usually work well.