Effects of inflation

mrlegend123

Deleted_User said:

Thrugelmir said:

Indexes are screened and weighted.  US is nearer in 20% in terms of capitalisation of listed companies globally.  China if treated as an equal would be in a similar ball park to the USA . 

AIUI, large shareholdings (held by anybody) are excluded from the "free floating" market capitalization. The Chinese market happens to include a large value of excluded shares (mostly held by the State). Those excluded shares are not "on the market" in any meaningful sense, so I stand by my statement that the USA has the biggest stock market in the world.

In 10 years time China will have a big market and US hopefully destroyed. 

Prism

mrlegend123 said:

Deleted_User said:

mrlegend123 said:

Wrong when you use CAPE, the markets work in cycles. No-one invests at the top with high CAPE - mad. 

Sorry, that is simply wrong. Somebody who has a large lump sum to invest should crack on an invest right away. Perhaps with an asset allocation which has been tweaked a bit because of the high CAPE. But just staying in 100% cash in the hope of a better buying opportunity which may never come makes no sense.

I didn't say I was in 100% cash....... don't invest in a high CAPE Market.

So you have sold out of all of your US investments? Where did you shift them?

csgohan4

my China and Pacifics funds are doing better than the American one sat present
Note that most global trackers have more than 40-50%+ in the US equities so investing in US will be inevitable.  It is neither a bad or good thing depending on your point of view.

Got money, invest in an index tracker and leave it there for 10+ years

Thrugelmir

csgohan4 said:

my China and Pacifics funds are doing better than the American one sat present

FTSE All Share has outperformed global indices since the turn of the year. 

mrlegend123

Prism said:

mrlegend123 said:

Deleted_User said:

mrlegend123 said:

Wrong when you use CAPE, the markets work in cycles. No-one invests at the top with high CAPE - mad. 

Sorry, that is simply wrong. Somebody who has a large lump sum to invest should crack on an invest right away. Perhaps with an asset allocation which has been tweaked a bit because of the high CAPE. But just staying in 100% cash in the hope of a better buying opportunity which may never come makes no sense.

I didn't say I was in 100% cash....... don't invest in a high CAPE Market.

So you have sold out of all of your US investments? Where did you shift them?

no just stopped investing in the US markets for now. 

Alice_Holt

mrlegend123 said:

Prism said:

mrlegend123 said:

Deleted_User said:

mrlegend123 said:

Wrong when you use CAPE, the markets work in cycles. No-one invests at the top with high CAPE - mad. 

Sorry, that is simply wrong. Somebody who has a large lump sum to invest should crack on an invest right away. Perhaps with an asset allocation which has been tweaked a bit because of the high CAPE. But just staying in 100% cash in the hope of a better buying opportunity which may never come makes no sense.

I didn't say I was in 100% cash....... don't invest in a high CAPE Market.

So you have sold out of all of your US investments? Where did you shift them?

no just stopped investing in the US markets for now. 

    Why are you not following the logic of your posts and are still holding US stocks with such a "high CAPE - mad." 

    Sell them, have the courage of your convictions man (and follow the advice you have freely given to others). 

  

Prism

mrlegend123 said:

Prism said:

mrlegend123 said:

Deleted_User said:

mrlegend123 said:

Wrong when you use CAPE, the markets work in cycles. No-one invests at the top with high CAPE - mad. 

Sorry, that is simply wrong. Somebody who has a large lump sum to invest should crack on an invest right away. Perhaps with an asset allocation which has been tweaked a bit because of the high CAPE. But just staying in 100% cash in the hope of a better buying opportunity which may never come makes no sense.

I didn't say I was in 100% cash....... don't invest in a high CAPE Market.

So you have sold out of all of your US investments? Where did you shift them?

no just stopped investing in the US markets for now. 

Ok that means you are invested in US markets and yet you are telling people they are mad to invest in US markets. Hmm

tichtich

Deleted_User said:

tichtich said:

I wouldn't be trying to time the market if I'd already been invested for years,  like many of those here, and had benefited from past price increases.  But investing a lump sum at today's very high prices (perhaps as much as double historic p/e ratios) means resigning myself to very low returns on that lump sum.

Of course staying out of the market is a risk too. Prices might stay high for a lot longer. But I think that's the lesser risk when prices are already this high.

This is a difficult time for new investors, especially those starting with a lump sum.

It's very plausible that expected returns, starting at current prices, are lower than historic returns have been. But that applies to both shares and bonds, and perhaps also to cash. And shares do still appear to be the likely source of (relatively) higher returns. So it doesn't really change the old idea that what you need is a mixture, in suitable proportions (for you), of shares, bonds and cash.

So I'm not convinced that this is an especially difficult time for new investors. Or to put it another way: it's always a difficult time for new investors.

And especially for new investors with a significant lump sum. The logical thing may be to go immediately to a suitable asset allocation. But I accept that it may be easier psychologically to move there more gradually, over perhaps 12 months. Adopting an approach you will be able to stick with is important; an approach that might work for somebody else, but you might not be able to stick with (whatever the markets do) isn't suitable for you.

Well, you haven't said anything about current share price levels. But those must be relevant.  You surely wouldn't give the same reply if p/e ratios were 10 times current levels.

Of course you may make a different judgement from me about the relative risks of investing now or waiting at current price levels. But you need to make that judgement, based on current price levels, or your response doesn't address my post. 

mrlegend123

Prism said:

mrlegend123 said:

Prism said:

mrlegend123 said:

no Deleted_User said:

mrlegend123 said:

Wrong when you use CAPE, the markets work in cycles. No-one invests at the top with high CAPE - mad. 

Sorry, that is simply wrong. Somebody who has a large lump sum to invest should crack on an invest right away. Perhaps with an asset allocation which has been tweaked a bit because of the high CAPE. But just staying in 100% cash in the hope of a better buying opportunity which may never come makes no sense.

I didn't say I was in 100% cash....... don't invest in a high CAPE Market.

So you have sold out of all of your US investments? Where did you shift them?

no just stopped investing in the US markets for now. 

Ok that means you are invested in US markets and yet you are telling people they are mad to invest in US markets. Hmm

like I said many times....i have stopped investing in the US markets due to CAPE. want me to repeat the above for you hmm

mrlegend123

Alice_Holt said:

mrlegend123 said:

Prism said:

mrlegend123 said:

Deleted_User said:

mrlegend123 said:

Wrong when you use CAPE, the markets work in cycles. No-one invests at the top with high CAPE - mad. 

Sorry, that is simply wrong. Somebody who has a large lump sum to invest should crack on an invest right away. Perhaps with an asset allocation which has been tweaked a bit because of the high CAPE. But just staying in 100% cash in the hope of a better buying opportunity which may never come makes no sense.

I didn't say I was in 100% cash....... don't invest in a high CAPE Market.

So you have sold out of all of your US investments? Where did you shift them?

no just stopped investing in the US markets for now. 

    Why are you not following the logic of your posts and are still holding US stocks with such a "high CAPE - mad." 

    Sell them, have the courage of your convictions man (and follow the advice you have freely given to others). 

  

are you guys amateurs on this thread? do you know how to invest? You don't invest when the CAPE is the highest it ever been...... you get burnt.
I am not selling, just going into cash like I always do.....my conviction