Preparing for the Crash

Steve182

Stargunner said:

Steve182 said:

Maybe the crash has started today..?
Most of my core holdings hammered today, I'm over £32K down today.
JD.com -7.9%
Scottish Mortgage -5.9%
Ishares Global Clean Energy ETF -6.1%
Tencent Holdings -5.5%
Am I selling?....no..

You could be more than £32k down today with SMT currently over 9% down and INRG down 7.5%

Well another £16K today so that makes £48K in 2 days. Not pleased, obviously, but I accept this will happen from time to time because of the type of investments I chose, and looking on the bright side my portfolio has only gone back a couple of months in time to where it was in December.

Steve182

ChilliBob said:

Wondering if it's worth buying any smt in the coming days if it slips go a discount. Tempting but I think I might be being a bit too reactive as opposed to following a plan. Aka running into tesco and getting stuff with yellow stickers for dinner rather than sticking go my list. (something I do all the time in typical mse fashion lol) 

During the covid crash of Feb/March 20 I believe SMT slipped to 15% discount for a very short time. I'm almost fully invested right now having just bought a VCT so no spare ££, but if that does happen again I could be tempted to sell something that's not dropped much to buy more SMT at a big discount.

Thrugelmir

Steve182 said:

Stargunner said:

Steve182 said:

Maybe the crash has started today..?
Most of my core holdings hammered today, I'm over £32K down today.
JD.com -7.9%
Scottish Mortgage -5.9%
Ishares Global Clean Energy ETF -6.1%
Tencent Holdings -5.5%
Am I selling?....no..

You could be more than £32k down today with SMT currently over 9% down and INRG down 7.5%

Well another £16K today so that makes £48K in 2 days. Not pleased, obviously, but I accept this will happen from time to time because of the type of investments I chose, and looking on the bright side my portfolio has only gone back a couple of months in time to where it was in December.

That was the time to cash in. $ has been slipping backwards since. 

[Deleted User]

Thrugelmir said:

Steve182 said:

Stargunner said:

Steve182 said:

Maybe the crash has started today..?
Most of my core holdings hammered today, I'm over £32K down today.
JD.com -7.9%
Scottish Mortgage -5.9%
Ishares Global Clean Energy ETF -6.1%
Tencent Holdings -5.5%
Am I selling?....no..

You could be more than £32k down today with SMT currently over 9% down and INRG down 7.5%

Well another £16K today so that makes £48K in 2 days. Not pleased, obviously, but I accept this will happen from time to time because of the type of investments I chose, and looking on the bright side my portfolio has only gone back a couple of months in time to where it was in December.

That was the time to cash in. $ has been slipping backwards since. 

Like, duh..

Steve182

Thrugelmir said:

Steve182 said:

Stargunner said:

Steve182 said:

Maybe the crash has started today..?
Most of my core holdings hammered today, I'm over £32K down today.
JD.com -7.9%
Scottish Mortgage -5.9%
Ishares Global Clean Energy ETF -6.1%
Tencent Holdings -5.5%
Am I selling?....no..

You could be more than £32k down today with SMT currently over 9% down and INRG down 7.5%

Well another £16K today so that makes £48K in 2 days. Not pleased, obviously, but I accept this will happen from time to time because of the type of investments I chose, and looking on the bright side my portfolio has only gone back a couple of months in time to where it was in December.

That was the time to cash in. $ has been slipping backwards since. 

I've often thought about that, but from December until yesterday many of my international investments were still increasing in £ despite the growing strength of £ VS $.

JD.com is an interesting example. My JD shares are ADR so $. Obviously the company trades in Yuan and it's turnover, earnings, profit etc are also valued in Yuan. Yuan to £ has been flat at £0.11 since September. I suppose that makes the $ irrelevant as ultimately Yuan to £ is more important.

Also my investment philosophy is buy and hold, at least until such time as I accept defeat after making an error and find a better prospect. That includes disregarding relatively modest movements in FX (relatively being maybe +/-10%)   Long term I feel I should be long on $ and short on £. That's based on past 100 years FX history rather than short term fluctuations due to Brexit. 

[Deleted User]

Roger that.

Also, it’s worth stating that those holding good gains are best placed to face a prospective crash. 

Thrugelmir

ZingPowZing said:

Also, it’s worth stating that those holding good gains are best placed to face a prospective crash. 

Prefer cash myself. 

Steve182

Thrugelmir said:

ZingPowZing said:

Also, it’s worth stating that those holding good gains are best placed to face a prospective crash. 

Prefer cash myself. 

Of course we would all prefer to hold cash during a crash, and I'm certainly not going to make patronising comments about any strategy you may have should it involve holding cash or market timing. All I can say is I've stayed near 100% invested in equities throughout the past 3 or 4  years and for me it's worked very well so far....

Thrugelmir

Steve182 said:

Thrugelmir said:

ZingPowZing said:

Also, it’s worth stating that those holding good gains are best placed to face a prospective crash. 

Prefer cash myself. 

Of course we would all prefer to hold cash during a crash, and I'm certainly not going to make patronising comments about any strategy you may have should it involve holding cash or market timing. All I can say is I've stayed near 100% invested in equities throughout the past 3 or 4  years and for me it's worked very well so far....

I do despise the word crash. Gets bandies around emotively. Crashes happen on the back of a completely unexpected event. Corrections are far more predictable though the timing is uncertain. Taking profits isn't market timing either. A strategy that I wish I had opted to chose myself in my early investing years. 

bd10

Whether this is a mere 10-20% correction or an 70-80% correction, only time can tell. What actually triggered Monday's sell off? There were no real data releases aside from the usual suspects in the calendar, no fluke Fed speech, perhaps the Tesla/Bitcoin hangover story? Don't know. I doubt rates really triggered it, the curve steepening and 10's selling off (inflation expectation, Biden stimulus) was way too obvious and it has been going on for weeks and months. If we cannot point to a specific event that caused this, I would venture to speculate that this sell off is more serious than we might think.