Strong pound effecting my foreign currency savings

VXman

Not sure it this is the correct forum but can't see a better place for this.
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/markets/pound-sterling-brexit-euro-b472348.html
Damn UK brexit success!

I have what would normally be around £30K plus in a bank account in Hong Kong waiting for a decent exchange rate to move it to UK. (Hong Kong Dollar is pegged to the USD)
The last decent level was back in September ( the money wasn't available at that time)
Current value £27.5K !!!
Don't know whether to cut my losses or hang on. Any chance of the pound dropping in the next 6 months or so?  Could the pound get even stronger?
It's not gaining any interest over there as it's sitting in a current account. No savings accounts to speak of in HK and investing from here is a no go. 
The issue is that a small change in exchange rate can add or lose a significant amount - probably equal to a year or more in a savings or safe investment over here. I don't really need the money at the moment so it could stay there for a few years I guess but I just don't like the idea of it sitting over there.

Thoughts on what should I do?

(and isn't it typical - just when we can't travel to take advantage!)

AlanP_2

Any chance of the pound dropping in the next 6 months or so?  Could the pound get even stronger?

Yes.

Nobody is going to predict exchange rates for you, and if they do it will be total guess.

dunstonh

The pound is not strong.   It is at the lower end of its modern range.  It's just going through a historic cycle that has seen it both higher and lower.     The increase in sterling was entirely predictable.  However, where it goes next is very much unknown.     You can make guesses but could be completely wrong.  I don't expect it to fall and would not be surprised to see it head towards 1.60   That is my guess.    Not a prediction.

pbartlett

Also you should be asking the same question about the HKD (pegged to USD) - my guess is the USD will climb once they get a grip on COVID - certainly relative the the GBP

eskbanker

VXman said:

Not sure it this is the correct forum but can't see a better place for this.
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/markets/pound-sterling-brexit-euro-b472348.html
Damn UK brexit success!

The fact that the recent performance of the dollar is similar against most other major currencies suggests that it would be more accurate to portray a weak dollar rather than a strong pound, and therefore nothing to do with Brexit....

sevenhills

I would be more concerned about the politics in Hong Kong/China.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-24/china-s-growing-power-is-scaring-ordinary-savers-out-of-hong-kong

Grenage

I thought the falling dollar was due to throwing trillions into their economy during the covid crisis?

MaxiRobriguez

I don't understand why you didn't move the money 18 months ago when GBP was in the doldrums due to no-deal Brexit concerns, or a year ago when pandemic caused flight to USD?

By not acting you've essentially speculated on further GBP weakening - a bet which you lost - and if trying to second guess whether to keep your position or move it to GBP based on what will happen to FX rates is more speculation.

My guess is the GBP continues to improve against a basket of currencies as Brexit goes further in the rear view mirror and foreign investors are tempted back into cheap UK market, but against USD may be different as USD has been weak over the past few months and that could reverse, especially if inflation kicks in and a mini gold rush happens.

Why don't you just put the money where you need it, rather than second guess FXs. If you want to try and make money, there are better ways of doing so.

Linton

Your experience shows the futility of trying to gamble with foreign exchange.    So what should you do? Perhaps accept that you have received a valuable but expensive lesson, transfer to £s now and dont get into the situation in the future of holding substantial amounts in foreign currencies unless you need it for expenditure.

[Deleted User]

Looking at the bigger picture, VXman  is better off in the world with £ rising. Unless his savings and investments in other currencies outweigh the value of his £ assets, his house, pension and salary. So, do not worry, the outlook for him is copacetic   

VXman

MaxiRobriguez said:

I don't understand why you didn't move the money 18 months ago when GBP was in the doldrums due to no-deal Brexit concerns, or a year ago when pandemic caused flight to USD?

By not acting you've essentially speculated on further GBP weakening - a bet which you lost - and if trying to second guess whether to keep your position or move it to GBP based on what will happen to FX rates is more speculation.

My guess is the GBP continues to improve against a basket of currencies as Brexit goes further in the rear view mirror and foreign investors are tempted back into cheap UK market, but against USD may be different as USD has been weak over the past few months and that could reverse, especially if inflation kicks in and a mini gold rush happens.

Why don't you just put the money where you need it, rather than second guess FXs. If you want to try and make money, there are better ways of doing so.

I didn't have it 18 months ago. The back story is we were living in HK. Moved back to UK in August. Some money (pension/salary payments) were not released until late September. Rates had begun to fall then. I hung on hoping they would reverse. Unfortunately they didn't. I'm not trying to make make money, just trying to choose the best time to move it out. I don't need the money now so it's just a decision that needs to be made of when is a good time to move it.

In hindsight I should have moved it immediately when I got it but even then it was a low rate in comparison to just a month or so earlier so was hoping for a bounce back.