CPI

Bramble96

Just read MSE's latest weekly email - energy bills up, council tax up, coupled with increases in food and fuel prices - and yet the Govt's referred CPI index says annual inflation remains less than 1%. Something doesn't seem right !

eskbanker

The CPI methodology is published at https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/methodologies/consumerpricesindicestechnicalmanual2019 but it's a free country if you prefer to believe anecdotal tales in sensationalist journalism, and ultimately the only measure that matters is your own personal inflation figure, based on what you actually spend....

Eco_Miser

Bramble96 said:

Just read MSE's latest weekly email - energy bills up, council tax up, coupled with increases in food and fuel prices - and yet the Govt's referred CPI index says annual inflation remains less than 1%. Something doesn't seem right !

CPI's a lagging indicator, whereas all those rises in the newsletter are yet to happen.

Apart from that, <1% inflation still means that things are going up, though perhaps by less than expected.

Zanderman

Bramble96 said:

Just read MSE's latest weekly email - energy bills up, council tax up, coupled with increases in food and fuel prices - and yet the Govt's referred CPI index says annual inflation remains less than 1%. Something doesn't seem right !

Councils are running out of money - due to austerity, covid etc etc.
Brexit is inevitably increasing some prices.
It's not all about CPI.
If only life was that simple.

cricidmuslibale

I think a significant percentage of those who voted for Brexit almost 5 years ago would not have done so if they had known that the prices of many food items, goods etc. were going to increase significantly once Brexit had taken place. I further think that percentage would have been enough to tip the balance in favour of Remain; after all Leave only won by 51.9% to 48.1%. Clearly the fact that we are still very much struggling to contain COVID only makes things worse still!

The_Green_Hornet

cricidmuslibale said:

I think a significant percentage of those who voted for Brexit almost 5 years ago would not have done so if they had known that the prices of many food items, goods etc. were going to increase significantly once Brexit had taken place. I further think that percentage would have been enough to tip the balance in favour of Remain; after all Leave only won by 51.9% to 48.1%. Clearly the fact that we are still very much struggling to contain COVID only makes things worse still!

Out of interest, which food items have increased significantly since the UK left the EU?

cricidmuslibale

The price increases all kick in from 31 March onwards according to a report on the BBC only yesterday! Meanwhile food retailers on the continent who sell goods imported directly from the UK currently have empty shelves where some of the most popular food items should be plentiful and indeed were plentiful prior to the completion of Brexit at the start of this year! It makes no sense whatsoever to make trade in food, goods or anything else more difficult and more expensive between neighbouring countries or indeed between countries in the same continent but that is exactly what Brexit is currently doing!

The_Green_Hornet

cricidmuslibale said:

The price increases all kick in from 31 March onwards according to a report on the BBC only yesterday! Meanwhile food retailers on the continent who sell goods imported directly from the UK currently have empty shelves where some of the most popular food items should be plentiful and indeed were plentiful prior to the completion of Brexit at the start of this year! It makes no sense whatsoever to make trade in food, goods or anything else more difficult and more expensive between neighbouring countries or indeed between countries in the same continent but that is exactly what Brexit is currently doing!

Out of interest, do you have a link to that report regarding future food price increases from 31 March onwards?

eskbanker

The_Green_Hornet said:

cricidmuslibale said:

The price increases all kick in from 31 March onwards according to a report on the BBC only yesterday! Meanwhile food retailers on the continent who sell goods imported directly from the UK currently have empty shelves where some of the most popular food items should be plentiful and indeed were plentiful prior to the completion of Brexit at the start of this year! It makes no sense whatsoever to make trade in food, goods or anything else more difficult and more expensive between neighbouring countries or indeed between countries in the same continent but that is exactly what Brexit is currently doing!

Out of interest, do you have a link to that report regarding future food price increases from 31 March onwards?

I could be wrong but suspect that the report referred to is https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56010036, which, rather than stating confirmed facts about nationwide price rises scheduled for a specific date, actually just relays fears and concerns expressed by some specialist Scottish food traders, some of which relate to damage to the industry from Covid rather than Brexit as such, although it does seem reasonably likely that the end of the grace period on import controls at the end of March is an obvious point at which to expect an impact:

Food traders say Brexit impact 'could get worse'

Scotland's food and drink industry is warning of price rises and potential shortages when new Brexit rules on imports come into force in April.

The_Green_Hornet

@eskbanker Thanks for the link. As with most reports from trade bodies we will just have to wait and see if these warnings actually become reality. In the meantime, according to the last monthly inflation statistics from the ONS, the UK is experiencing food deflation.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/food-inflation

cricidmuslibale

eskbanker said:

The_Green_Hornet said:

cricidmuslibale said:

The price increases all kick in from 31 March onwards according to a report on the BBC only yesterday! Meanwhile food retailers on the continent who sell goods imported directly from the UK currently have empty shelves where some of the most popular food items should be plentiful and indeed were plentiful prior to the completion of Brexit at the start of this year! It makes no sense whatsoever to make trade in food, goods or anything else more difficult and more expensive between neighbouring countries or indeed between countries in the same continent but that is exactly what Brexit is currently doing!

Out of interest, do you have a link to that report regarding future food price increases from 31 March onwards?

I could be wrong but suspect that the report referred to is https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56010036, which, rather than stating confirmed facts about nationwide price rises scheduled for a specific date, actually just relays fears and concerns expressed by some specialist Scottish food traders, some of which relate to damage to the industry from Covid rather than Brexit as such, although it does seem reasonably likely that the end of the grace period on import controls at the end of March is an obvious point at which to expect an impact:

Food traders say Brexit impact 'could get worse'

Scotland's food and drink industry is warning of price rises and potential shortages when new Brexit rules on imports come into force in April.

Thank you eskbanker! Yes that is the very report I was referring to which also got at least one airing on the UK-wide BBC news because I saw it during the afternoon on the BBC news channel and I don't live in Scotland! I distinctly remember a BBC correspondent immediately after the report finished mentioning 31 March as the key date after which food price rises and probable shortages of at least some popular food items are likely to occur!