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Aphria stock anyone?

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Wondering if anyone here holds Canadian cannabis stock Aphria. I bought it a few years ago and have watched in dismay as it plummeted. However, on the back of stronger than expected results, a forthcoming merger with Tilray and the growing likelihood of further legalisation in US that it can capitalise on, the stock has surged in the last two or three months. It's also improved its brand reach through cannabis infused beer too that's a big seller.
At the moment I'm up about 30% on my intial investment (including transaction fees) with the stock sitting over $21CAD which is near an historic high. I guess it'd be useful to know if others hold the stock and what they intend to do or if others are planning to buy in. Im caught between selling and banking a tidy wee margin of return (to reinvest in an undervalued stock) or to hold out in case it climbs further.
Any thoughts? 

Replies

  • benbay001benbay001 Forumite
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    Does it still meet the criteria that caused you to buy it? 
    What made it undervalued in the first place? A 30% return over a few years in one of the highest risk sectors is not great, it could have quite easily gone the other way with just a little bit of negative legislation.
    Im A Budding Neil Woodford.
  • eskbankereskbanker Forumite
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    the stock sitting over $21CAD which is near an historic high
    Good quality gear then? ;)
  • benbay001benbay001 Forumite
    364 posts
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    eskbanker said:
    the stock sitting over $21CAD which is near an historic high
    Good quality gear then? ;)
    The only industry where a significant warehouse fire could cause an all time high :)
    Im A Budding Neil Woodford.
  • ThrugelmirThrugelmir Forumite
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    Do you wish to hold shares in the merged business?  Is the market fully pricing in the merger terms. Or is there likely to be a higher bid on the table. 
    ““Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”

    ― Sir John Templeton
  • maxsteammaxsteam Forumite
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    The merger of two loss making companies is seldom a recipe for success. The leaflet about the merger alarms me. I doubt that they would be allowed to publish such a leaflet if they were listed on one of the London markets. Investors are likely to be disappointed when the predictions don't materialise.
  • Malone2020Malone2020 Forumite
    29 posts
    10 Posts
    Thanks for all the feedback. 

    I guess I'm going to sit on it for a while yet. It's continued rising since I made the initial post. This was always something of a speculative punt for me, and the basis on which I bought in years ago remains the same. There's likely still a bit of momentum left to ride out yet. Without trying to time the market, I'll see how far this goes and if it hits a price I feel is too good to turn down I'll cash out and never look back. At the moment I'm pretty comfortable with taking that risk, though the higher it goes that risk tolerance will change as I seek to turn paper profits into actual profit. 
  • lozzy1965lozzy1965 Forumite
    192 posts
    Ninth Anniversary 100 Posts Photogenic Combo Breaker
    Thanks for all the feedback. 

    I guess I'm going to sit on it for a while yet. It's continued rising since I made the initial post. This was always something of a speculative punt for me, and the basis on which I bought in years ago remains the same. There's likely still a bit of momentum left to ride out yet. Without trying to time the market, I'll see how far this goes and if it hits a price I feel is too good to turn down I'll cash out and never look back. At the moment I'm pretty comfortable with taking that risk, though the higher it goes that risk tolerance will change as I seek to turn paper profits into actual profit. 
    I find the hardest thing to do when dealing in individual shares is selling.  When they are rising, one is always tempted to hold because they might carry on rising.  When they are falling, one is always tempted to hold because they might 'bounce back'.  Set a price, or an annual return/increase, and if it hits that price then sell.  Or set some criteria (eg. income vs value) and when that criteria is no longer met then sell.  The hard part is sticking to what one said one would do when one bought the share. 
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