Alarm Bells - What would you do?

BananaRepublic

Username999 said:

[Deleted User] said: 

I agree with Jeremy Grantham in this recent article calling the bubble: https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/ - he says:

Someone calls a bubble every 5 minutes, for the last 10 years.
Move on.

They do. I got concerned by the number of crash warnings on YouTube until I discovered that some people post warnings every year or two. These people tend to exaggerate and ignore context. 

It is certainly true that some markets have lower P/E and CAPE ratios, and are worth considering. 

Username999

mrlegend123 said:

 
I know the S and P 500 is high and FTSE 100 is low for example, but would still go down as the dollar is the reserve currency. 

So short the S&P and long the Ftse100.
Simples. 

Username999

mrlegend123 said:

AlanP_2 said:

Do you have some money invested in housing?

No, I don't like the BTL sector.

The Housing sector is NOT BTL.
I left BTL 16 years ago.

BananaRepublic

Username999 said:

mrlegend123 said:

 
I know the S and P 500 is high and FTSE 100 is low for example, but would still go down as the dollar is the reserve currency. 

So short the S&P and long the Ftse100.
Simples. 

Very long the FTSE 100, put as big a distance between you and it as you can muster. 

It is the Norwegian Blue of stock markets. 

mrlegend123

Username999 said:

mrlegend123 said:

Q3 correction? 

No, no, no,...
You six months experience in a 10 year+ bull market is pathetic.
IMHO.
You need to be told straight.

I've spent years in the US markets but dont like what's ahead hence graph. I'm staying out. The game is not to lose money.

emerging markets. 

Username999

mrlegend123 said:

Username999 said:

mrlegend123 said:

Q3 correction? 

No, no, no,...
You six months experience in a 10 year+ bull market is pathetic.
IMHO.
You need to be told straight.

I've spent years in the US markets but dont like what's ahead hence graph. I'm staying out. The game is not to lose money.

emerging markets. 

How many years?
Emergimg markets where investors go to die... IHMO.

Thrugelmir

mrlegend123 said:

The shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has a mean (average) of 16.8 and a median of 15.8. Right now, the Shiller S&P ratio for the S&P 500 is 34.5 -- more than double its historic average.

When it has been over 30, there has been correction or crash. That's why I am feeling like a bear. Also, reports of yields increasing in the news.......

For overseas investors $ weakness may take the shine off 2021. 

TheAble

I personally welcome lower prices, as I like to buy more at a cheaper price. A perpetual upmove in markets I find a little frustrating - all those purchases yet to be made, which will now be more expensive...

I do think you are developing the right mindset as an investor when you prefer a sea of red to a sea of blue. Probably the only people that should prefer a rising market are those that need to sell in the short term.

mrlegend123

themes for 2021 China and UK shares?
Might move my money into those markets for 2021. 

US markets and tech stocks have done well for 2020 but I won't be investing in those markets this year.

Anyone recommend a good China fund? I think China still has a few years of good returns as they overtake the US.