Why are stocks going up?

bhjm

masonic said:

bhjm said:

Thrugelmir said:

bhjm said:

the stock market represents the future, not the present. 

Attempts to predict.  The future as always is uncertain. 

let be more precise and rephrase.
on the stock exchange you can see the future. Not what happening right now, thats why it is often felt counter cyclical to our everyday life.

Clearly you cannot see the future. Otherwise companies would not go bust with a non-zero share price. Looking beyond individual companies and moving to stock exchanges as a whole, around 20th February 2020 markets were moving along as if 2020 was going to be much the same as 2019. The future wasn't seen on that occasion. Then markets overreacted to events, so the future on 25th March was about 15% better than the future on 23rd March, yet nothing happened between 23rd March and 25th March to justify the more negative vision of the future on the earlier date. Perhaps it is as Thrug suggests after all "Attempts to predict. The future as always is uncertain."

i simply accept, that we both have a different view on things.

Thrugelmir

bhjm said:

Thrugelmir said:

bhjm said:

the stock market represents the future, not the present. 

Attempts to predict.  The future as always is uncertain. 

let be more precise and rephrase.
on the stock exchange you can see the future. Not what happening right now, thats why it is often felt counter cyclical to our everyday life.

In December 2020 an investor paid £2.2 million Guineas at the Tattersalls auction for a yearling, Beach Frolic. Is this the next Tesla in racing horse terms. It's a gamble. It might pay off it might not. Many companies appear to be being valued on the same basis at the moment. So many things have to go right. 

masonic

bhjm said:

masonic said:

bhjm said:

Thrugelmir said:

bhjm said:

the stock market represents the future, not the present. 

Attempts to predict.  The future as always is uncertain. 

let be more precise and rephrase.
on the stock exchange you can see the future. Not what happening right now, thats why it is often felt counter cyclical to our everyday life.

Clearly you cannot see the future. Otherwise companies would not go bust with a non-zero share price. Looking beyond individual companies and moving to stock exchanges as a whole, around 20th February 2020 markets were moving along as if 2020 was going to be much the same as 2019. The future wasn't seen on that occasion. Then markets overreacted to events, so the future on 25th March was about 15% better than the future on 23rd March, yet nothing happened between 23rd March and 25th March to justify the more negative vision of the future on the earlier date. Perhaps it is as Thrug suggests after all "Attempts to predict. The future as always is uncertain."

i simply accept, that we both have a different view on things.

The difference is my view is consistent with the facts.

JohnWinder

bartelbe said:

I don't regularly look at my investments, ....everything is up. Except ...

i found this a little bit surprising, ... I would have expected the markets ... or is there no rational explanation for it?

Each day countless thousands of individual decisions are made to trade billions in stocks. Journalists engage in the seemingly pointless exercise of trying to condense all those decisions into one or two simple explanations: 'profit taking'; 'concern about the economy' etc. Either to attract readers for advertisers, or whatever other reasons.

And you're asking us to explain movements you observed from what sounds like infrequent looks at your investments?  It's not going to be easy.

csgohan4

Could be sentiment and the hope that the vaccine will break everyone out of lockdown potentially. The stocks are  valued with this into account and adjusting potentially. You can see that with the airline stocks recently. However admittedly TUI and others are not doing so well

Username999

csgohan4 said:

 However admittedly TUI and others are not doing so well

TUI is raising half a billion via a Rights Issue, hence the drop in it's share price.

AnotherJoe

Not spreadsheets but look at firecalc and cfiresim which have the ability to back test your assumptions on growth and withdrawals against previous years stock markets.

bhjm

masonic said:

bhjm said:

masonic said:

bhjm said:

Thrugelmir said:

bhjm said:

the stock market represents the future, not the present. 

Attempts to predict.  The future as always is uncertain. 

let be more precise and rephrase.
on the stock exchange you can see the future. Not what happening right now, thats why it is often felt counter cyclical to our everyday life.

Clearly you cannot see the future. Otherwise companies would not go bust with a non-zero share price. Looking beyond individual companies and moving to stock exchanges as a whole, around 20th February 2020 markets were moving along as if 2020 was going to be much the same as 2019. The future wasn't seen on that occasion. Then markets overreacted to events, so the future on 25th March was about 15% better than the future on 23rd March, yet nothing happened between 23rd March and 25th March to justify the more negative vision of the future on the earlier date. Perhaps it is as Thrug suggests after all "Attempts to predict. The future as always is uncertain."

i simply accept, that we both have a different view on things.

The difference is my view is consistent with the facts.

and again, I let you believe in your view and I believe in my view. 

Type_45

Gary1984 said:

Governments and central banks have been pumping Trillions into economies all over the world to keep things afloat. So there's a lot of money sloshing around and a lot of it finds itself being funnelled into the stockmarket. 

Exactly. QE goes straight (via banks) into the stock market. 

masonic

Type_45 said:

Gary1984 said:

Governments and central banks have been pumping Trillions into economies all over the world to keep things afloat. So there's a lot of money sloshing around and a lot of it finds itself being funnelled into the stockmarket. 

Exactly. QE goes straight (via banks) into the stock market.

Wouldn't that be straight into bond markets, and indirectly into stock markets as a result of the impact on bond prices?