Becoming more bearish

BananaRepublic

itwasntme001 said:

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

It is what happens when you have 0% interest rates, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in many major economies and human nature driven by greed.

The interesting question is why did we not do all this in previous recessions like 2008 or early 90s?  I think the answer is inflation and the political will to unleash it.  Now it seems inflation is not a concern so they have more room for stimulus.  So every trade is essentially a view on inflation and no one can forecast inflation well at all.

The covid recession is fundamentally differerent from the GFC. Back then credit dried up, people couldn’t borrow, it hit the economy quite widely. This recession is hitting some parts of the economy badly, others not at all. Cafes and restaurant jobs will bounce back quickly, even though some businesses will go under staff will be rehired by new owners. There are many people working from home or on furlough, spending less than usual. Trades have been busier than usual, DIY is booming, people are having house extensions, loft conversions etc. 

We have as a nation run up huge debt, and somehow we will have to pay for that. Some say a wealth tax is coming. Whatever happens, spending on public services may be squeezed. 

That is because 2008 was a financial crisis and everything was done to recapitalise banks (and QE was seen as a way to kick start the economy).  But my point was that why wasn't any fiscal stimulus done back then to encourage growth - it seems it was only monetary (QE) and even that was not nearly as forthcoming as we saw last March?  Now you have huge fiscal stimulus after 10 years of austerity in the UK and 5-6 years in the US (until Trump cut corporate taxes).

To me it seems like policy makers are becoming less and less concerned about inflation because they saw QE did not generate any, so why not push ahead with fiscal.

The GFC could have seen banks going bust and a repeat of the Great Depression. 

Without fiscal stimulus this crash would have seen scores of businesses going under, unemployment would have rocketed, overall the cost to the government could have been higher. I don’t see how furloughing and interest free loans could generate inflation. 

For me the question is why testing and track and trace were so royally messed up. 

Alexland

BananaRepublic said:

We have as a nation run up huge debt, and somehow we will have to pay for that. Some say a wealth tax is coming. Whatever happens, spending on public services may be squeezed. 

But then with lower interest rates the greater amount of debt remains affordable so why do anything about it which might upset anyone or damage economic activity? Just leave it for inflation to sort out over the long term.

Thrugelmir

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

It is what happens when you have 0% interest rates, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in many major economies and human nature driven by greed.

The interesting question is why did we not do all this in previous recessions like 2008 or early 90s?  I think the answer is inflation and the political will to unleash it.  Now it seems inflation is not a concern so they have more room for stimulus.  So every trade is essentially a view on inflation and no one can forecast inflation well at all.

The covid recession is fundamentally differerent from the GFC. Back then credit dried up, people couldn’t borrow, it hit the economy quite widely. This recession is hitting some parts of the economy badly, others not at all. Cafes and restaurant jobs will bounce back quickly, even though some businesses will go under staff will be rehired by new owners. There are many people working from home or on furlough, spending less than usual. Trades have been busier than usual, DIY is booming, people are having house extensions, loft conversions etc. 

We have as a nation run up huge debt, and somehow we will have to pay for that. Some say a wealth tax is coming. Whatever happens, spending on public services may be squeezed. 

That is because 2008 was a financial crisis and everything was done to recapitalise banks (and QE was seen as a way to kick start the economy).  But my point was that why wasn't any fiscal stimulus done back then to encourage growth - it seems it was only monetary (QE) and even that was not nearly as forthcoming as we saw last March?  Now you have huge fiscal stimulus after 10 years of austerity in the UK and 5-6 years in the US (until Trump cut corporate taxes).

To me it seems like policy makers are becoming less and less concerned about inflation because they saw QE did not generate any, so why not push ahead with fiscal.

For me the question is why testing and track and trace were so royally messed up. 

Ever built something from scratch in a matter of weeks?  Unfortunately Alexa is actually pretty dumb. Other countries systems aren't a roaring success either. 

Alexland

Thrugelmir said:

Unfortunately Alexa is actually pretty dumb.

Sadly they couldn't find anyone smarter to use my computer.

Thrugelmir

m_c_s said:

Worth noting that the next 4 yrs may see the largest ever US internal investment programme (infrastructure, clean energy etc). Biden now has control of both houses so his initial promise of up to $4 Trillion will probably double. Add to this additional COVID support likely to be another $2 Trillion. The impacts may not be seen immediately but markets are forward looking.  

My knowledge is sparse with regards to the US. Though I have gleaned that to enact some legislation the vote requires a 60 majority in the Senate. 

masonic

BananaRepublic said:

For me the question is why testing and track and trace were so royally messed up. 

Could be something to do with who was put in charge of it, TalkTalk data breach queen Dido the dud Harding. Could be something to do to it being outsourced to the Minister for Health's former employer. Serco, without a tender process. Serco was under investigation by the Serious Fraud Office over another contract it was awarded relating to prisons when the same minister was in the MoJ. If you think that sounds sleazy, then fortunately the Government has appointed an Anti-Corruption Champion, none other than Dido Harding's husband.

BananaRepublic

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

It is what happens when you have 0% interest rates, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in many major economies and human nature driven by greed.

The interesting question is why did we not do all this in previous recessions like 2008 or early 90s?  I think the answer is inflation and the political will to unleash it.  Now it seems inflation is not a concern so they have more room for stimulus.  So every trade is essentially a view on inflation and no one can forecast inflation well at all.

The covid recession is fundamentally differerent from the GFC. Back then credit dried up, people couldn’t borrow, it hit the economy quite widely. This recession is hitting some parts of the economy badly, others not at all. Cafes and restaurant jobs will bounce back quickly, even though some businesses will go under staff will be rehired by new owners. There are many people working from home or on furlough, spending less than usual. Trades have been busier than usual, DIY is booming, people are having house extensions, loft conversions etc. 

We have as a nation run up huge debt, and somehow we will have to pay for that. Some say a wealth tax is coming. Whatever happens, spending on public services may be squeezed. 

That is because 2008 was a financial crisis and everything was done to recapitalise banks (and QE was seen as a way to kick start the economy).  But my point was that why wasn't any fiscal stimulus done back then to encourage growth - it seems it was only monetary (QE) and even that was not nearly as forthcoming as we saw last March?  Now you have huge fiscal stimulus after 10 years of austerity in the UK and 5-6 years in the US (until Trump cut corporate taxes).

To me it seems like policy makers are becoming less and less concerned about inflation because they saw QE did not generate any, so why not push ahead with fiscal.

For me the question is why testing and track and trace were so royally messed up. 

Ever built something from scratch in a matter of weeks?  Unfortunately Alexa is actually pretty dumb. Other countries systems aren't a roaring success either. 

They had months, not weeks. Some countries such as South Korea managed it. China has the virus under control. It might be our inability to obey lockdown, or government projects.

I once worked at HP Enterprises, and saw some government projects. General incompetence in the form of bureaucratic non technical civil servants dealing with shiny suited sales weasels, and engineers left out of the loop. Government contracts tend to be like that, in defence anyway. 

Thrugelmir

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

It is what happens when you have 0% interest rates, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in many major economies and human nature driven by greed.

The interesting question is why did we not do all this in previous recessions like 2008 or early 90s?  I think the answer is inflation and the political will to unleash it.  Now it seems inflation is not a concern so they have more room for stimulus.  So every trade is essentially a view on inflation and no one can forecast inflation well at all.

The covid recession is fundamentally differerent from the GFC. Back then credit dried up, people couldn’t borrow, it hit the economy quite widely. This recession is hitting some parts of the economy badly, others not at all. Cafes and restaurant jobs will bounce back quickly, even though some businesses will go under staff will be rehired by new owners. There are many people working from home or on furlough, spending less than usual. Trades have been busier than usual, DIY is booming, people are having house extensions, loft conversions etc. 

We have as a nation run up huge debt, and somehow we will have to pay for that. Some say a wealth tax is coming. Whatever happens, spending on public services may be squeezed. 

That is because 2008 was a financial crisis and everything was done to recapitalise banks (and QE was seen as a way to kick start the economy).  But my point was that why wasn't any fiscal stimulus done back then to encourage growth - it seems it was only monetary (QE) and even that was not nearly as forthcoming as we saw last March?  Now you have huge fiscal stimulus after 10 years of austerity in the UK and 5-6 years in the US (until Trump cut corporate taxes).

To me it seems like policy makers are becoming less and less concerned about inflation because they saw QE did not generate any, so why not push ahead with fiscal.

For me the question is why testing and track and trace were so royally messed up. 

Ever built something from scratch in a matter of weeks?  Unfortunately Alexa is actually pretty dumb. Other countries systems aren't a roaring success either. 

They had months, not weeks. Some countries such as South Korea managed it. China has the virus under control. It might be our inability to obey lockdown, or government projects.

South Korea has had viruses previously.  Chinese state control is something that many would object to. Not just the Covidiots either. There's objections in Singapore now as appears that the data is going to be used for other purposes. The grass is far from being greener taken as a whole. 

masonic

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

It is what happens when you have 0% interest rates, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in many major economies and human nature driven by greed.

The interesting question is why did we not do all this in previous recessions like 2008 or early 90s?  I think the answer is inflation and the political will to unleash it.  Now it seems inflation is not a concern so they have more room for stimulus.  So every trade is essentially a view on inflation and no one can forecast inflation well at all.

The covid recession is fundamentally differerent from the GFC. Back then credit dried up, people couldn’t borrow, it hit the economy quite widely. This recession is hitting some parts of the economy badly, others not at all. Cafes and restaurant jobs will bounce back quickly, even though some businesses will go under staff will be rehired by new owners. There are many people working from home or on furlough, spending less than usual. Trades have been busier than usual, DIY is booming, people are having house extensions, loft conversions etc. 

We have as a nation run up huge debt, and somehow we will have to pay for that. Some say a wealth tax is coming. Whatever happens, spending on public services may be squeezed. 

That is because 2008 was a financial crisis and everything was done to recapitalise banks (and QE was seen as a way to kick start the economy).  But my point was that why wasn't any fiscal stimulus done back then to encourage growth - it seems it was only monetary (QE) and even that was not nearly as forthcoming as we saw last March?  Now you have huge fiscal stimulus after 10 years of austerity in the UK and 5-6 years in the US (until Trump cut corporate taxes).

To me it seems like policy makers are becoming less and less concerned about inflation because they saw QE did not generate any, so why not push ahead with fiscal.

For me the question is why testing and track and trace were so royally messed up. 

Ever built something from scratch in a matter of weeks?  Unfortunately Alexa is actually pretty dumb. Other countries systems aren't a roaring success either. 

They had months, not weeks. Some countries such as South Korea managed it. China has the virus under control. It might be our inability to obey lockdown, or government projects.

South Korea has had viruses previously.  Chinese state control is something that many would object to. Not just the Covidiots either. There's objections in Singapore now as appears that the data is going to be used for other purposes. The grass is far from being greener taken as a whole.

Germany did quite a good job though. Not an example of a country with previous experience.

[Deleted User]

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

BananaRepublic said:

itwasntme001 said:

It is what happens when you have 0% interest rates, massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in many major economies and human nature driven by greed.

The interesting question is why did we not do all this in previous recessions like 2008 or early 90s?  I think the answer is inflation and the political will to unleash it.  Now it seems inflation is not a concern so they have more room for stimulus.  So every trade is essentially a view on inflation and no one can forecast inflation well at all.

The covid recession is fundamentally differerent from the GFC. Back then credit dried up, people couldn’t borrow, it hit the economy quite widely. This recession is hitting some parts of the economy badly, others not at all. Cafes and restaurant jobs will bounce back quickly, even though some businesses will go under staff will be rehired by new owners. There are many people working from home or on furlough, spending less than usual. Trades have been busier than usual, DIY is booming, people are having house extensions, loft conversions etc. 

We have as a nation run up huge debt, and somehow we will have to pay for that. Some say a wealth tax is coming. Whatever happens, spending on public services may be squeezed. 

That is because 2008 was a financial crisis and everything was done to recapitalise banks (and QE was seen as a way to kick start the economy).  But my point was that why wasn't any fiscal stimulus done back then to encourage growth - it seems it was only monetary (QE) and even that was not nearly as forthcoming as we saw last March?  Now you have huge fiscal stimulus after 10 years of austerity in the UK and 5-6 years in the US (until Trump cut corporate taxes).

To me it seems like policy makers are becoming less and less concerned about inflation because they saw QE did not generate any, so why not push ahead with fiscal.

For me the question is why testing and track and trace were so royally messed up. 

Ever built something from scratch in a matter of weeks?  Unfortunately Alexa is actually pretty dumb. Other countries systems aren't a roaring success either. 

They had months, not weeks. Some countries such as South Korea managed it. China has the virus under control. It might be our inability to obey lockdown, or government projects.

South Korea has had viruses previously.  Chinese state control is something that many would object to. Not just the Covidiots either. There's objections in Singapore now as appears that the data is going to be used for other purposes. The grass is far from being greener taken as a whole. 

That was why U.K. messed up.  Govt rejected the oven ready AAPL/Googl tracking system to develop its own, cynically called the NHS App, so that Cummings’ gang could control and monetise track and trace. 
Fortunately for us all, version 1 never got further than the Isle Of Wight.