Nikola / XL Fleet

Shocking_Blue

Dear all,
Apologies for clustering these two together, but they're sort of related:
XL Fleet. This seems like an obvious area for investment. Had considered how existing vehicles would be used whilst awaiting the switchover to EVs. A co that carries out conversions/outfitting seems to have obvious potential.
Nikola: Have seen the sudden share price rise (and fall today) following positive comments from J P Morgan analysts. Just wondered if members thought this to be classic pumping/dumping, or could there be something in Nikola (seen other comments about not touching it/writing it off etc). I know all about what has gone on with the co this year, but is it to be considered a 100% write-off? If not, surely it's worth a small punt. Not sure of the credibility of recent positive comments, though.
Thanks. 

HansOndabush

Nikola by all accounts is a spoof of Tesla. They don't really have anything except plans and ideas. If you want to gamble on that then fine but really you have no idea what is going on with this company; only a few people really know and it wont be anyone on this board that is for sure.

Username999

Bet the farm on Nikola it's going to the moon... can't lose.
A sure fire Tesla beater.

Shocking_Blue

HansOndabush said:

Nikola by all accounts is a spoof of Tesla. They don't really have anything except plans and ideas. If you want to gamble on that then fine but really you have no idea what is going on with this company; only a few people really know and it wont be anyone on this board that is for sure.

Thanks. Yep, know the saga of what has been going on over this year etc. I guess I was asking if Nikola was a complete write-off. If not, then it would surely be a small punt to consider. Just quoting below from the article  https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/23/why-nikola-stock-is-higher-today/ and looking at the more recent https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/28/why-shares-of-nikola-are-up-today/

"So what

Loop Capital analyst Jeffrey Kauffman initiated coverage of Nikola last week, rating the stock a buy and setting a $35 price target for its shares. 

Kauffman wrote that the heavy-truck industry's transition from diesel to electric power over the next decade is not a question of if, but when. He said that while Nikola's founder may have "over-hyped" the company's technology leading into and after its public-market debut, the company genuinely does have intellectual property that will be attractive to partners.

DESPITE THE WELL-PUBLICIZED SCANDALS SURROUNDING NIKOLA, ITS TRE ELECTRIC SEMI WILL BEGIN SHIPPING NEXT YEAR. IMAGE SOURCE: NIKOLA.

Kauffman feels that with its partners' help, Nikola's heavy trucks will begin to hit the road over the next two years, notwithstanding the allegations of exaggerated technology and the departure of founder Trevor Milton in September. 

Now what

While Nikola's partnership with General Motors (NYSE:GM) is still in negotiation, the company has already signed deals with industry heavyweights, including truck-maker CNH Industrial (NYSE:CNHI) and supplier Robert Bosch. Given that and the stock's recent retreat following the events that led to Milton's departure, Kauffman feels that the risk-to-reward ratio is "better balanced" for auto investors buying now." 

masonic

Shocking_Blue said:

Just quoting below from the article  https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/23/why-nikola-stock-is-higher-today/ and looking at the more recent https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/28/why-shares-of-nikola-are-up-today/

A mention in the motley fool is a clear indication that a share has either risen or fallen. But if you really want to get ahead, you should check out the five quality companies in their special investing report...

HansOndabush

My guess is that there'll be a load more capital raises on hype and 'jam tomorrow' promises. I think you'll be able to get in at a better and lower price in the future but its your money and only you can decide.

Shocking_Blue

HansOndabush said:

My guess is that there'll be a load more capital raises on hype and 'jam tomorrow' promises. I think you'll be able to get in at a better and lower price in the future but its your money and only you can decide.

Thanks.
I also think so. Will wait for it to fall a bit. Still see this as flying up sometime - possibly on your jam promises more than anything else. Small punt, out if falls 20%.
Thanks

AnotherJoe

Shocking_Blue said:

Dear all,
Apologies for clustering these two together, but they're sort of related:
XL Fleet. This seems like an obvious area for investment. Had considered how existing vehicles would be used whilst awaiting the switchover to EVs. A co that carries out conversions/outfitting seems to have obvious potential.
Nikola: Have seen the sudden share price rise (and fall today) following positive comments from J P Morgan analysts. Just wondered if members thought this to be classic pumping/dumping, or could there be something in Nikola (seen other comments about not touching it/writing it off etc). I know all about what has gone on with the co this year, but is it to be considered a 100% write-off? If not, surely it's worth a small punt. Not sure of the credibility of recent positive comments, though.
Thanks. 

It is not worth even a microscopic  punt unless you are daytrading when of course anything is possible/

Please do not put any money into Nikola. You'll lose it all. Its essentially a scam. Think Theranos. Its economically unfeasible even on their own figures*, and note that their supposed hydrogen Semi, built on others technology (even though they boasted just a few months ago how it was all theirs) , wont be available until 2023 earliest, they have no concrete plans to roll out hydrogen refuelling stations and more critically no money to do it. They have publicly said theres another capital raise coming (eg share dilution) and there is, IIRC 160million odd  shares coming out of lock up in April which will hold back any increase in price were there any reason for there to be one which there isnt except for lying / incompetent broker upgrades. 

Every other lie that Trevor Milton came up with has proved to be false (their own fuel cells, inverters, a revolutionary battery technology they own) , building refuelling stations in 2019, his own design (bought from someone else) and so on.

By their own figures their "new" H2 semi weighs more than diesel or EV (which Nikola said was a key feature, lightweight) , half the range originally proposed (critical for trucks) , and their EV electric truck which may be available in 2022 is just an Iveco with some motors and batteries shoehorned in it,  costs far more than a diesel to buy,  has no electric charging infrastructure to support it and an inadequate range, incidentally half that of the Tesla semi which will likely emerge into real use very late next year.

Wait for the next major event, Anheiser Busch to pull out. That ought to drop the share price at least another 30%

Never heard of XL Fleet know nothing of it. But id put money in that over Nikola.

* they require a supply of electricity at price below wholesale and even if that was available it would  need to be states wide and even then, an electric truck could run for 1/3rd the price of a FC so none of it makes any sense at all.

Shocking_Blue

AnotherJoe said:

Shocking_Blue said:

Dear all,
Apologies for clustering these two together, but they're sort of related:
XL Fleet. This seems like an obvious area for investment. Had considered how existing vehicles would be used whilst awaiting the switchover to EVs. A co that carries out conversions/outfitting seems to have obvious potential.
Nikola: Have seen the sudden share price rise (and fall today) following positive comments from J P Morgan analysts. Just wondered if members thought this to be classic pumping/dumping, or could there be something in Nikola (seen other comments about not touching it/writing it off etc). I know all about what has gone on with the co this year, but is it to be considered a 100% write-off? If not, surely it's worth a small punt. Not sure of the credibility of recent positive comments, though.
Thanks. 

It is not worth even a microscopic  punt unless you are daytrading when of course anything is possible/

Please do not put any money into Nikola. You'll lose it all. Its essentially a scam. Think Theranos. Its economically unfeasible even on their own figures*, and note that their supposed hydrogen Semi, built on others technology (even though they boasted just a few months ago how it was all theirs) , wont be available until 2023 earliest, they have no concrete plans to roll out hydrogen refuelling stations and more critically no money to do it. They have publicly said theres another capital raise coming (eg share dilution) and there is, IIRC 160million odd  shares coming out of lock up in April which will hold back any increase in price were there any reason for there to be one which there isnt except for lying / incompetent broker upgrades. 

Every other lie that Trevor Milton came up with has proved to be false (their own fuel cells, inverters, a revolutionary battery technology they own) , building refuelling stations in 2019, his own design (bought from someone else) and so on.

By their own figures their "new" H2 semi weighs more than diesel or EV (which Nikola said was a key feature, lightweight) , half the range originally proposed (critical for trucks) , and their EV electric truck which may be available in 2022 is just an Iveco with some motors and batteries shoehorned in it,  costs far more than a diesel to buy,  has no electric charging infrastructure to support it and an inadequate range, incidentally half that of the Tesla semi which will likely emerge into real use very late next year.

Wait for the next major event, Anheiser Busch to pull out. That ought to drop the share price at least another 30%

Never heard of XL Fleet know nothing of it. But id put money in that over Nikola.

* they require a supply of electricity at price below wholesale and even if that was available it would  need to be states wide and even then, an electric truck could run for 1/3rd the price of a FC so none of it makes any sense at all.

Many thanks, Another Joe. Appreciate the feedback and concern. Think I'll scrub this off as a potential punt.
XL FLEET tap into the transition of vehicles to 100% green by fleet electrification. Just seems interesting as surely there'd be a transition market between ICE and EV.
Thanks.