Investment management - Christmas Edition

barnstar2077

Prism said:

barnstar2077 said:

csgohan4 said:

barnstar2077 said:

@RobHT You have mentioned AMD.  If you look at their share price over the last 30 years or so you will see that the price has exploded over the last four years.  What do you think has changed to do that?  Yes, they have certainly been doing better at competing against their rivals in recent years, but how likely are they to sustain that? (historically Intel have always made a come back.)  Do they have new management?  Was it Bitcoin that started their good run?  I do not know.  I would be rubbing my hands together if I had bought some shares a few years ago, but buying some now would make me feel very uncomfortable indeed unless I knew exactly why they were doing so much better now, and more importantly why they were set to continue their meteoric rise.  Why do you think they are a good place for your money?  I am very interested to hear how you have carried out your analysis, as I do plan on dabbling a tiny bit in shares at a later date once I have a solid foundation under me that can take care of my expenses.

I would have rather invested in Nvidia or SSD manufacturers , the former has done very well over the last 12 m

I agree that I would feel better owning Nvidia, their products have been very consistent in my opinion (I have bought many of their cards.)  Still though, when you look at their share price, just like AMD they have had an incredible rise in the last three and a half years.  Which is what made me think of Bitcoin as being a possible reason.  But as with AMD I couldn't tell you why they have done so well, or why the price is set to continue.  So again, I wouldn't be very comfortable buying in today.

Probably a bit off tangent for the thread but one of the reasons that Nvidia and AMD have been doing so well is that their cards have been going into the big Amazon, Microsoft and Google cloud datacenters for server based applications. They are great at high speed video rendering (video streaming), 3D rendering (gaming and simulations) and machine learning (AI applications) - all of which have been very popular over the last few years. You can basically rent these things by the second which makes them very accessible to all.

The reason I bring it up is RobHT thinks that individual company shares is the way to go, and I am interested in how he analysis companies. 

Prism

barnstar2077 said:

Prism said:

barnstar2077 said:

csgohan4 said:

barnstar2077 said:

@RobHT You have mentioned AMD.  If you look at their share price over the last 30 years or so you will see that the price has exploded over the last four years.  What do you think has changed to do that?  Yes, they have certainly been doing better at competing against their rivals in recent years, but how likely are they to sustain that? (historically Intel have always made a come back.)  Do they have new management?  Was it Bitcoin that started their good run?  I do not know.  I would be rubbing my hands together if I had bought some shares a few years ago, but buying some now would make me feel very uncomfortable indeed unless I knew exactly why they were doing so much better now, and more importantly why they were set to continue their meteoric rise.  Why do you think they are a good place for your money?  I am very interested to hear how you have carried out your analysis, as I do plan on dabbling a tiny bit in shares at a later date once I have a solid foundation under me that can take care of my expenses.

I would have rather invested in Nvidia or SSD manufacturers , the former has done very well over the last 12 m

I agree that I would feel better owning Nvidia, their products have been very consistent in my opinion (I have bought many of their cards.)  Still though, when you look at their share price, just like AMD they have had an incredible rise in the last three and a half years.  Which is what made me think of Bitcoin as being a possible reason.  But as with AMD I couldn't tell you why they have done so well, or why the price is set to continue.  So again, I wouldn't be very comfortable buying in today.

Probably a bit off tangent for the thread but one of the reasons that Nvidia and AMD have been doing so well is that their cards have been going into the big Amazon, Microsoft and Google cloud datacenters for server based applications. They are great at high speed video rendering (video streaming), 3D rendering (gaming and simulations) and machine learning (AI applications) - all of which have been very popular over the last few years. You can basically rent these things by the second which makes them very accessible to all.

The reason I bring it up is RobHT thinks that individual company shares is the way to go, and I am interested in how he analysis companies. 

Agreed. Its hard enough to understand what a company does and analysis its current financials never mind trying to predict how it will adapt and grow over the next 10 years or so, what competition it will need to fight off along the way and what those future financials might look like. Unless someone is able to put together those kind of scenarios I am not sure how they would go about putting a value on the shares of that company. 

itwasntme001

Prism said:

barnstar2077 said:

csgohan4 said:

barnstar2077 said:

@RobHT You have mentioned AMD.  If you look at their share price over the last 30 years or so you will see that the price has exploded over the last four years.  What do you think has changed to do that?  Yes, they have certainly been doing better at competing against their rivals in recent years, but how likely are they to sustain that? (historically Intel have always made a come back.)  Do they have new management?  Was it Bitcoin that started their good run?  I do not know.  I would be rubbing my hands together if I had bought some shares a few years ago, but buying some now would make me feel very uncomfortable indeed unless I knew exactly why they were doing so much better now, and more importantly why they were set to continue their meteoric rise.  Why do you think they are a good place for your money?  I am very interested to hear how you have carried out your analysis, as I do plan on dabbling a tiny bit in shares at a later date once I have a solid foundation under me that can take care of my expenses.

I would have rather invested in Nvidia or SSD manufacturers , the former has done very well over the last 12 m

I agree that I would feel better owning Nvidia, their products have been very consistent in my opinion (I have bought many of their cards.)  Still though, when you look at their share price, just like AMD they have had an incredible rise in the last three and a half years.  Which is what made me think of Bitcoin as being a possible reason.  But as with AMD I couldn't tell you why they have done so well, or why the price is set to continue.  So again, I wouldn't be very comfortable buying in today.

Probably a bit off tangent for the thread but one of the reasons that Nvidia and AMD have been doing so well is that their cards have been going into the big Amazon, Microsoft and Google cloud datacenters for server based applications. They are great at high speed video rendering (video streaming), 3D rendering (gaming and simulations) and machine learning (AI applications) - all of which have been very popular over the last few years. You can basically rent these things by the second which makes them very accessible to all.

I own all of the stocks except for AMD - hoping cloud data centers continue its growth for a whilst yet.

Thrugelmir

barnstar2077 said:

Prism said:

barnstar2077 said:

csgohan4 said:

barnstar2077 said:

@RobHT You have mentioned AMD.  If you look at their share price over the last 30 years or so you will see that the price has exploded over the last four years.  What do you think has changed to do that?  Yes, they have certainly been doing better at competing against their rivals in recent years, but how likely are they to sustain that? (historically Intel have always made a come back.)  Do they have new management?  Was it Bitcoin that started their good run?  I do not know.  I would be rubbing my hands together if I had bought some shares a few years ago, but buying some now would make me feel very uncomfortable indeed unless I knew exactly why they were doing so much better now, and more importantly why they were set to continue their meteoric rise.  Why do you think they are a good place for your money?  I am very interested to hear how you have carried out your analysis, as I do plan on dabbling a tiny bit in shares at a later date once I have a solid foundation under me that can take care of my expenses.

I would have rather invested in Nvidia or SSD manufacturers , the former has done very well over the last 12 m

I agree that I would feel better owning Nvidia, their products have been very consistent in my opinion (I have bought many of their cards.)  Still though, when you look at their share price, just like AMD they have had an incredible rise in the last three and a half years.  Which is what made me think of Bitcoin as being a possible reason.  But as with AMD I couldn't tell you why they have done so well, or why the price is set to continue.  So again, I wouldn't be very comfortable buying in today.

Probably a bit off tangent for the thread but one of the reasons that Nvidia and AMD have been doing so well is that their cards have been going into the big Amazon, Microsoft and Google cloud datacenters for server based applications. They are great at high speed video rendering (video streaming), 3D rendering (gaming and simulations) and machine learning (AI applications) - all of which have been very popular over the last few years. You can basically rent these things by the second which makes them very accessible to all.

The reason I bring it up is RobHT thinks that individual company shares is the way to go, and I am interested in how he analysis companies. 

How often did you read a company's annnual accounts? 

barnstar2077

Thrugelmir said:

barnstar2077 said:

Prism said:

barnstar2077 said:

csgohan4 said:

barnstar2077 said:

@RobHT You have mentioned AMD.  If you look at their share price over the last 30 years or so you will see that the price has exploded over the last four years.  What do you think has changed to do that?  Yes, they have certainly been doing better at competing against their rivals in recent years, but how likely are they to sustain that? (historically Intel have always made a come back.)  Do they have new management?  Was it Bitcoin that started their good run?  I do not know.  I would be rubbing my hands together if I had bought some shares a few years ago, but buying some now would make me feel very uncomfortable indeed unless I knew exactly why they were doing so much better now, and more importantly why they were set to continue their meteoric rise.  Why do you think they are a good place for your money?  I am very interested to hear how you have carried out your analysis, as I do plan on dabbling a tiny bit in shares at a later date once I have a solid foundation under me that can take care of my expenses.

I would have rather invested in Nvidia or SSD manufacturers , the former has done very well over the last 12 m

I agree that I would feel better owning Nvidia, their products have been very consistent in my opinion (I have bought many of their cards.)  Still though, when you look at their share price, just like AMD they have had an incredible rise in the last three and a half years.  Which is what made me think of Bitcoin as being a possible reason.  But as with AMD I couldn't tell you why they have done so well, or why the price is set to continue.  So again, I wouldn't be very comfortable buying in today.

Probably a bit off tangent for the thread but one of the reasons that Nvidia and AMD have been doing so well is that their cards have been going into the big Amazon, Microsoft and Google cloud datacenters for server based applications. They are great at high speed video rendering (video streaming), 3D rendering (gaming and simulations) and machine learning (AI applications) - all of which have been very popular over the last few years. You can basically rent these things by the second which makes them very accessible to all.

The reason I bring it up is RobHT thinks that individual company shares is the way to go, and I am interested in how he analysis companies. 

How often did you read a company's annnual accounts? 

I am not sure if you are asking me or RobHT.  I haven't as I am not looking to invest in individual shares at the moment.

Thrugelmir

barnstar2077 said:

Thrugelmir said:

barnstar2077 said:

Prism said:

barnstar2077 said:

csgohan4 said:

barnstar2077 said:

@RobHT You have mentioned AMD.  If you look at their share price over the last 30 years or so you will see that the price has exploded over the last four years.  What do you think has changed to do that?  Yes, they have certainly been doing better at competing against their rivals in recent years, but how likely are they to sustain that? (historically Intel have always made a come back.)  Do they have new management?  Was it Bitcoin that started their good run?  I do not know.  I would be rubbing my hands together if I had bought some shares a few years ago, but buying some now would make me feel very uncomfortable indeed unless I knew exactly why they were doing so much better now, and more importantly why they were set to continue their meteoric rise.  Why do you think they are a good place for your money?  I am very interested to hear how you have carried out your analysis, as I do plan on dabbling a tiny bit in shares at a later date once I have a solid foundation under me that can take care of my expenses.

I would have rather invested in Nvidia or SSD manufacturers , the former has done very well over the last 12 m

I agree that I would feel better owning Nvidia, their products have been very consistent in my opinion (I have bought many of their cards.)  Still though, when you look at their share price, just like AMD they have had an incredible rise in the last three and a half years.  Which is what made me think of Bitcoin as being a possible reason.  But as with AMD I couldn't tell you why they have done so well, or why the price is set to continue.  So again, I wouldn't be very comfortable buying in today.

Probably a bit off tangent for the thread but one of the reasons that Nvidia and AMD have been doing so well is that their cards have been going into the big Amazon, Microsoft and Google cloud datacenters for server based applications. They are great at high speed video rendering (video streaming), 3D rendering (gaming and simulations) and machine learning (AI applications) - all of which have been very popular over the last few years. You can basically rent these things by the second which makes them very accessible to all.

The reason I bring it up is RobHT thinks that individual company shares is the way to go, and I am interested in how he analysis companies. 

How often did you read a company's annnual accounts? 

I am not sure if you are asking me or RobHT.  I haven't as I am not looking to invest in individual shares at the moment.

How do you pick your collective investment funds?  

barnstar2077

Thrugelmir said:

barnstar2077 said:

Thrugelmir said:

barnstar2077 said:

Prism said:

barnstar2077 said:

csgohan4 said:

barnstar2077 said:

@RobHT You have mentioned AMD.  If you look at their share price over the last 30 years or so you will see that the price has exploded over the last four years.  What do you think has changed to do that?  Yes, they have certainly been doing better at competing against their rivals in recent years, but how likely are they to sustain that? (historically Intel have always made a come back.)  Do they have new management?  Was it Bitcoin that started their good run?  I do not know.  I would be rubbing my hands together if I had bought some shares a few years ago, but buying some now would make me feel very uncomfortable indeed unless I knew exactly why they were doing so much better now, and more importantly why they were set to continue their meteoric rise.  Why do you think they are a good place for your money?  I am very interested to hear how you have carried out your analysis, as I do plan on dabbling a tiny bit in shares at a later date once I have a solid foundation under me that can take care of my expenses.

I would have rather invested in Nvidia or SSD manufacturers , the former has done very well over the last 12 m

I agree that I would feel better owning Nvidia, their products have been very consistent in my opinion (I have bought many of their cards.)  Still though, when you look at their share price, just like AMD they have had an incredible rise in the last three and a half years.  Which is what made me think of Bitcoin as being a possible reason.  But as with AMD I couldn't tell you why they have done so well, or why the price is set to continue.  So again, I wouldn't be very comfortable buying in today.

Probably a bit off tangent for the thread but one of the reasons that Nvidia and AMD have been doing so well is that their cards have been going into the big Amazon, Microsoft and Google cloud datacenters for server based applications. They are great at high speed video rendering (video streaming), 3D rendering (gaming and simulations) and machine learning (AI applications) - all of which have been very popular over the last few years. You can basically rent these things by the second which makes them very accessible to all.

The reason I bring it up is RobHT thinks that individual company shares is the way to go, and I am interested in how he analysis companies. 

How often did you read a company's annnual accounts? 

I am not sure if you are asking me or RobHT.  I haven't as I am not looking to invest in individual shares at the moment.

How do you pick your collective investment funds?  

I looked at what had the best likely hood of achieving my objective for a reasonable cost and for a small amount of effort.  I eventually settled on VLS100 because it ticked those boxes, and because I thought that the uncertainty of brexit was keeping UK shares low and that I would potentially gain a bit of bonus growth from it's heavier weighting to the UK.  I figure that as long as either the UK or the US do okay over the next ten to fifteen years then it would be unlikely to let me down.  Regardless of whether some individual heavy hitters go bust or not.  For the most part, I just thought it was good enough, and though it may not give me incredible results, it should at least not implode.

Do not mistake my questioning of Robs strategy as an attack on anyone who buys individual shares.  As I said before, I fully intend to do so at some point in the distant future myself.  I am interested in what variables to look at when buying shares in a company, like debt levels etc(and also where I might find out that information.)  Or whether it is better simply to select companies that have strong brands with long track records of growth and no obvious upcoming bumps in the road.  I think it is an interesting topic.

RobHT

csgohan4 said:

Old_Lifer said:

You seem to be assuming that all or most  small companies will grow into big companies but this is rarely the case.

If you are  proposing to invest in a range of small companies without really knowing much about any of them your risk of loss will be increased  and with lots of small trades,   the costs will eat into any profit you make.   Of course you may not make a profit at all. The price of the shares may fall, or they may trade within a narrow range for months or even years before any significant  upward movement happens,   if it happens at all.

Do what Old lifer and others do, that is good research and targeted approach, rather than shot gun approach. 
Also not sure about PLTR, very risky imo. 

instead of 40 stocks, and put that money into  a few quality ones instead, say SBE or EQT as an example before their sky rocket surge, you would be far better in profit margins than hit and hope approach, especially SPACS which are high risk and pump and dump is rampant

I don't invest casually, I choose carefully these companies, like PLTR (I bought it at the day 1, average 9.5), ALPP (Alpine, average 0.33), KCAC etc...
I'll check these 2 proposed by you, thanks.

RobHT

Thrugelmir said:

RobHT said:

Voyager2002 said:

Some points that strike me:

Firstly, what makes you believe that BABA will just jump back? If you mean the Chinese firm Ali Baba, the fall reflects tough regulatory action (probably prompted by political factors) that will seriously reduce its profitability. While it is possible that the political conflict might be settled smoothly and the action withdrawn, no one in the western world could possibly have any information suggesting that this is likely to happen. It is more reasonable to believe that the current market price of BABA reflects its value.

Secondly, if you are going to achieve reasonable diversification with penny stocks then you will face some pretty hefty dealing costs. Unless you are able to go into this with some serious money (six figures, preferably seven figures) those dealing costs will represent an unacceptable proportion of your budget and will eat up any possible profits. This is a game that is best left to those with serious budgets.

Thirdly, while dividend stocks are great for people who need an income, growth stocks are more likely to provide growth and hence total return. Do you have any good reasons for believing that dividend stocks are safer than others?

Divident stocks don't grow much, the fluctation is very little compared to growth stocks, if you consider funds/ETFs is even more visible.

Dividends get reinvested that's where real growth in the portfolio value is generated from.

Growth is finite. Markets are only of a certain size. Likewise competition for consumers and end users is a good thing from a political perspective. 

I know that, and I also see that taxes will eat up my gains if they are from dividents...
At that point, we may even come back to the initial reasoning of few months back where the simple VLS80 would have made the easy and safe job, in the end I don't even need an income right now, even if that is the last goal, but also at that point it will be very hard to pay 45.5% almost of taxes...

RobHT

barnstar2077 said:

@RobHT You have mentioned AMD.  If you look at their share price over the last 30 years or so you will see that the price has exploded over the last four years.  What do you think has changed to do that?  Yes, they have certainly been doing better at competing against their rivals in recent years, but how likely are they to sustain that? (historically Intel have always made a come back.)  Do they have new management?  Was it Bitcoin that started their good run?  I do not know.  I would be rubbing my hands together if I had bought some shares a few years ago, but buying some now would make me feel very uncomfortable indeed unless I knew exactly why they were doing so much better now, and more importantly why they were set to continue their meteoric rise.  Why do you think they are a good place for your money?  I am very interested to hear how you have carried out your analysis, as I do plan on dabbling a tiny bit in shares at a later date once I have a solid foundation under me that can take care of my expenses.

I work in IT, so that makes me a bit confident by default.
AMD is outperforming Intel since 3 years, in consumer, business and Enterprise (here recently we've seen a clear jump off the game from Intel).
Recently I saw with my own eyes what is happening in Enterprise, from HW and cloud point of view, AMD is dominating every HW refreshment, Intel is not anymore a choice, AWS is using all AMD, Azure too, Google possibly (I didn't experience that in person but I quite believe they will follow the same), Apple has his own CPU/GPU now and Microsoft is planning the same, but rumors talk about a partnership with AMD/Xilinx, that anyway by default is the clear intenction for AMD to dominate in the semiconductor field, certainly would have been better to see M1 chip from AMD .

Yes, the stock is pumped and that makes you feel uncomfortable, but what about Tesla, Amazon, Apple, Netflix?  I'm quite sure that even if you invest in whatever fund, these companies are the major players there.

AMD in the past has been under too many changes, it couldn't take the fly due to all the internal beefs and chair changes, otherwise also in 2010 it was offering a good product in consumer and enterprise, but it was though to smash the habit of people and enterprises to only have Intel and it was a bit less price/performance gain.
Nowadays Intel counts less than zero, AMD has already take over, it's just a matter of time to see it on a graph summary.
Plus Intel has had too many problems in security, but also in performance and thermal requirements from Apple, if they couldn't make Apple happy, all this story is very bad.

AMD has also Radeon (ATI) as of today, not sure if you understand what that means.

Certainly NVIDIA/ARM is a great move on, also NVIDIA is a good company where to invest and I do, the bad game could be played by them if Microsoft decides to partnership with NVIDIA/ARM rather than AMD/ATI, that scares me mostly.

For the moment AMD is in uptrend, and I'll ride till they don't !!!!!! up or NVIDIA/ARM changes the game.