Moving out due to covid. Storage facilities for belongings

GDB2222

unforeseen said:

The current advice is for CEVs to go back to work for the majority of the country. Lots probably have because there is no longer any meaningful support for them.

The overall population statistics tell us very little about the risk for people in the CEV group.

Because nobody is breaking the statistics down in a fashion to extract that information. The also don't say anything about the vulnerable group either. 

The level of risk in the CEV group will be variable depending on which main condition the person has and what co-morbidities are also present. 

I agree with all that. 

It seems to me that your remarks about 'get a grip' were uncalled for, though. It’s up to the op what precautions he takes, and he did not ask for advice. Besides that, he is back at work, but doing so from home. So, there’s no reason for him to expose himself to flat mates who don’t care. 

I have a strong connection to North Norfolk, which is an out of the way area that hasn’t really been challenged by COVID. Well, not yet. The people there are puzzled why Londoners take Covid so seriously.

lopsyfa

Jeremy535897 said:

tacpot12 said:

unforeseen said:

Get a grip! There is no reason (unless you are in Tier 3 and been contacted about that) that you need to go to such extreme lengths. 
I lot of CEV, me included, are back at work as normal and just using sensible precautions. My wife carried on working all the way through and she works in a care home where risks were higher.

You do realise that your family are not going to lock themselves away to pander to your misplaced anxiety? 

I think it is Unforeseen who needs to get a grip here. The country is in the grip of a life-threatening virus that is easily transmitted by social contact. If you are vulnerable, and don't want to die a horrible death, you should take the precautions you propose to protect yourself and others. Covd-19 is not a seasonal flu; the mortality rate in the UK is 3.7%! This means that unless people take precautions, and until the vaccines are fully rolled out, upto 2.4 million people could die in the UK.

It only takes the breakdown of someone's normal precautions to expose you, and as people begin to let their guard down, it is increasingly likely that people will let their guard down. If you don't trust your flatmates to take all possible precautions to protect your health, then moving out is a sensible and proportionate response. 

Your 3.7% I assume comes from deaths (60,617) as a percentage of cases (1.69 million). The problems with using this simple measure include:

• it doesn't account for people who are asymptomatic, or who have mild symptoms and just self isolate without a test. These people raise the total of cases but not deaths
• it assumes that positive tests are 100% accurate. They may actually exaggerate the number of real cases because of false positives
• it assumes that every death where a positive coronavirus test happened within the previous 28 days is solely attributable to coronavirus. About 95% of deaths involve people with other pre-existing health problems

And the total number of cases doesn't include the number of people that didn't get a test when the government policy was to only test those in hospital and those that couldn't really book a test. This has been  a subject of several scientific papers (e.g. Gaye, B., Fanidi, A. and Jouven, X., 2020. Denominator matters in estimating COVID-19 mortality rates. European Heart Journal.). The COVID-19 is much more deadly than the influenza virus and the mortality rate is likely between 0.5-1.0%.

To the topic of this post, I don't think moving out and moving in with family is an over-reaction. Your family may be more willing to take extra precautions if they know you are clinically extremely vulnerable compared to flat-mates.

Dr_Crypto

Jeez the guy asks for information about storage companies and gets lectures on COVID! 

Yahoo_Mail

Dr_Crypto said:

Jeez the guy asks for information about storage companies and gets lectures on COVID! 

Maybe they shouldn't have asked in the Coronavirus support forum then?

TheShape

Yahoo_Mail said:

Dr_Crypto said:

Jeez the guy asks for information about storage companies and gets lectures on COVID! 

Maybe they shouldn't have asked in the Coronavirus support forum then?

Perhaps they expected some support?!

jimi_man

lopsyfa said:

Jeremy535897 said:

tacpot12 said:

unforeseen said:

Get a grip! There is no reason (unless you are in Tier 3 and been contacted about that) that you need to go to such extreme lengths. 
I lot of CEV, me included, are back at work as normal and just using sensible precautions. My wife carried on working all the way through and she works in a care home where risks were higher.

You do realise that your family are not going to lock themselves away to pander to your misplaced anxiety? 

I think it is Unforeseen who needs to get a grip here. The country is in the grip of a life-threatening virus that is easily transmitted by social contact. If you are vulnerable, and don't want to die a horrible death, you should take the precautions you propose to protect yourself and others. Covd-19 is not a seasonal flu; the mortality rate in the UK is 3.7%! This means that unless people take precautions, and until the vaccines are fully rolled out, upto 2.4 million people could die in the UK.

It only takes the breakdown of someone's normal precautions to expose you, and as people begin to let their guard down, it is increasingly likely that people will let their guard down. If you don't trust your flatmates to take all possible precautions to protect your health, then moving out is a sensible and proportionate response. 

Your 3.7% I assume comes from deaths (60,617) as a percentage of cases (1.69 million). The problems with using this simple measure include:

• it doesn't account for people who are asymptomatic, or who have mild symptoms and just self isolate without a test. These people raise the total of cases but not deaths
• it assumes that positive tests are 100% accurate. They may actually exaggerate the number of real cases because of false positives
• it assumes that every death where a positive coronavirus test happened within the previous 28 days is solely attributable to coronavirus. About 95% of deaths involve people with other pre-existing health problems

And the total number of cases doesn't include the number of people that didn't get a test when the government policy was to only test those in hospital and those that couldn't really book a test. This has been  a subject of several scientific papers (e.g. Gaye, B., Fanidi, A. and Jouven, X., 2020. Denominator matters in estimating COVID-19 mortality rates. European Heart Journal.). The COVID-19 is much more deadly than the influenza virus and the mortality rate is likely between 0.5-1.0%.

The problem with these types of statistics is that there is no 'one size fits all' approach to the IFR. As with most statistics, averages consist of a body of data ranging between two extremes. In this case the range of data varies massively according to age group. So (These figures were taken from the University of Cambridge) whilst the 25-45's have an IFR of 0.031%, in the 45-64 group this goes up to 0.29% and above 65 it goes up drastically with the over 75's around 12%. Under 25's it's so low as to be not worth worrying about. Any pre-existing conditions will skew these figures as well. 

Consequently, attempts to say that mortality the rate is 3.7% (I think that one has been debunked!) or 0.5% or 1% or whatever, are just meaningless without context.