advice needed,offers rejected, are we expecting too much?

fimonkey

EdInvestor wrote: »

IMHO something similar to 2004-05 will happen this time.That's what the Bank of England wants to achieve at any rate - a pause in the rate of growth.Not a price collapse.

For what it's worth (an unknowledgable potential FTB) I also think that's what's going to happen, I think the BoE can manipulate figures galore now interest rates are no longer tied in with politics, and I just don't see the BoE allowing us to go too far up the proverbial creek! That said, long term I don't know what their plan will be, or how it will pan out. ...

I saw a graph somewhere that showed interest rates before and after the BoE took control, they were much less bumpy afterwards, ... (I don't know exactly if this is due to BoE or other coincidence/forces however). Anyone know which graph I'm talking about?

carolt

EdInvestor - I'm still waiting for an answer to ANY of my points.......

My favourite sites, BTW, are the FT, Times, Guardian, Economist etc financial sections. I find their predictions of future house price meltdowns make soothing bedtime reading...... And this place, of course.....

mr.broderick

EdInvestor wrote: »

...its a 9ish percent drop in a market thats suppose to drop by 10percent anyway...!!/quote]

This is the kind of nonsense that misleads FTBs.Housing markets take YEARS to drop by a double digit amount.Currently the market is rising by around 7%, not dropping.

During the last crash, the total fall from peak to trough was only 17% and that took more than three years.The property market is not like the stockmarket.It moves very slowly indeed - prices have still not gone into negative territory yet in the US for instance.As for people who talk about falls of 30 or 40% , this is complete and utter rubbish.

Ed I've had enough of your tosh.
Takes years to drop by a double digit amount does it?
Our house trebled in a 3 year period, guess what they could crash just the same.
Don't know why you are in denial over this, it appears you are a lone voice?
Care to share the reason for this ed?

merlinthehappypig

EdInvestor wrote: »

Currently the market is rising by around 7%, not dropping.

During the last crash, the total fall from peak to trough was only 17% and that took more than three years.As for people who talk about falls of 30 or 40% , this is complete and utter rubbish.

I'm not sure why we are bothering to try and correct this nonsense, but here goes nothing.

Your first point is correct provided you substitute the words have risen for rising. If you still maintain otherwise you simply don't have a clue what you are saying, or do have a clue and simply want to wind people up and mislead those who come on the boards for impartial advice. I'm not a doom-monger about house prices. I have no idea what they will do, no more than anyone else, but I'm not stupid enough to think that they are still rising either.

You have been asked, overwhelmingly, to substantiate what you are saying, but simply keep spouting the same rubbish. If you honestly think that prices are rising by 7% still, then you have no more grasp of economics than most 10 year olds.

By your logic, if I weighed 100kg in October 2006 and 109Kg in October 2007, but weighed 107kg in November 2007 I would still be putting on weight........

As I have previously posted I have evidence that the house I sold in 1990 for £55000 was originally on at £85000, and that the house I bought for £70000 had been on at £125000 originally. This was in Worcester and Norfolk and equate to drops of just under 36% and 44%. Both houses went on sale in 1989. Unlike you, I wouldn't neccessarily argue that this was the case across the whole country, but at least I am basing my arguments on facts.

EdInvestor

One fact is fairly obvious and can easily be seen by looking at the figures for 2004-05: price falls from month to month do not necessarily mean there will be a price crash overall.

My advice to FTBs is simple: do not be led astray by other people's wishful thinking about imminent house price crashes.If worried, just wait and see.But don't be surprised if you get no joy from putting in derisory low offers. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, and you may scoop up a bargain but in most cases you'll just get a flea in your ear.

You would be better employed getting to know the property in your area and what is realistic pricing, so you can spot a real bargain when it comes your way.This could be any time, you don't need a price crash to get a bargain, you just need to be a bit smarter about property. pricing anomalies occur all the time.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were some quite good bargains to be found in due course among all those provincial city centre apartment blocks, for instance.That's where you are likely to see big falls in prices in the coming year or so, not in your local suburb..

nelly_2

cats! wrote: »

Hi atrebor.

Whilst in an ideal world EA's could be trusted to pass on offers I think, as a buyer, you need to contact the vendor directly in order to receive confirmation this has happened.

Quite frankly if anyone becomes abusive or harrassment occurs simply don't take the call!

Even on planet crack in the outer reaches of the meth anphetamine system does no one belive a word an estate agent says.

EA's are the only people who rank lower in popularity than builders solicitors politicians and fred west

carolt

Still waiting, EdInvestor.....

At least your last post made some sense. But an admission that you invented the data on the US would be nice......

EdInvestor

OK here's the picture in the US:

http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx

The whole country is up 1.8% year on year.A few states are now in negative territory: Michigan appears to be the worst at -3.7% , California is similar.

If you bear in mind that the quite steep-looking fall on the graph started 2 years ago, it will give you some idea of how long a house price crash actually takes to feed through the system. It's all very sloooow.

Plenty of states are quite healthy and may remain so..

As I've said before, property is a local market.It's unwise to pay too much attention to national figures as they may bear no relation at all to what's going on in your own area.

.

carolt

Thanks for at last providing a source. How does that square with the link I posted earlier, however:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6f0168b8-8...0779fd2ac.html (not the most recent figures - presumably it's worse since)

"The median value of an existing house fell 4.2 per cent to $211,700 in September compared with a year ago."

and this link:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/nov/29/useconomy.houseprices

"The Commerce Department said the median sales price for a new home fell 8.6% to $217,800, from $238,400 in September. This was the fastest month-on-month decline since September 1981. The price was down 13% from the same time a year earlier - the largest annual fall since September 1970."


Put simply, can you really be arguing that all the panic in the credit markets is taking place against a background of (albeit modestly) rising prices across the US????

mr.broderick

nelly wrote: »

Even on planet crack in the outer reaches of the meth anphetamine system does no one belive a word an estate agent says.

EA's are the only people who rank lower in popularity than builders solicitors politicians and fred west

Making a post is easy making 15000 hilarious ones isnt :rotfl:

Good to see carsalesmen excluded from your popularity list nelly