Dow Jones and ftse 100.

gunboat4

I have some what missed the boat. Money I have in the Dow Jones has lost a lot but I want to put it on hold Monday morning and then reinvest when it drops to the lows it did a few months ago ( around 18,000). The ftse is low but wondering if that too should be frozen for a while. Surely the markets will go low or even lower than last time round? Thanks.

Wotulookinat

I heard it said that there are two types of investor - those who don't know how to time the markets..... and those who don't know they don't know how to time the markets !
In all sincerity, I think if you are moving your money in and out of investments in the hope of judging the ups and downs of market movements then you are in for a bumpy ride.

Alexland

You were going to reinvest at under 20,000 in your previous post now at 18,000 why not wait until 16,000 to get it even cheaper? Who knows if it will go under 20,000 anytime soon or ever again? You might end up buying back in for more than you sold at. I stick by my previous reply not to try and take action in advance of things which may or may not happen. A bit of volatility around the US election isn't an indicator that the market is about to crash. Nobody knows so don't let greed and fear drive you into extreme positions. Be aware of the risks and invest in ways suitable for your circumstances.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/77738302#Comment_77738302

Albermarle

 Surely the markets will go low or even lower than last time round? 

Maybe they will and maybe they will not . If I was to take a stab at it , I would say they will dip tomorrow but after that who knows?

ProDave

My view is this is the start of the "proper crash"

I was surprised last time, just how short the market dip was and how soon it started back up, even while we were still in the middle of lockdown.  The depth and duration of the "crash" did not match the fall in GDP which was massive and bigger than anything seen post war.

Perhaps the market under did it the first time? everyone was thinking we would have a lockdown then it would all get back to normal.  Sorry it won't.  If there is no vaccine or other end, we will continue having wave after wave and lockdown after lockdown.

Remember we never fully came out of the first lockdown, many restrictions still remained that never got ended.

Nobody has even dared to talk about how the massive government debts will ever get paid off.

And we will complete Brexit, with or without a deal, right when the current forecasts predict the peak of Covid wave 2 deaths.

Now someone convince my why the markets are about to rise in the next 3 months?

Another_Saver

ProDave said:

My view is this is the start of the "proper crash"

I was surprised last time, just how short the market dip was and how soon it started back up, even while we were still in the middle of lockdown.  The depth and duration of the "crash" did not match the fall in GDP which was massive and bigger than anything seen post war.

Perhaps the market under did it the first time? everyone was thinking we would have a lockdown then it would all get back to normal.  Sorry it won't.  If there is no vaccine or other end, we will continue having wave after wave and lockdown after lockdown.

Remember we never fully came out of the first lockdown, many restrictions still remained that never got ended.

Nobody has even dared to talk about how the massive government debts will ever get paid off.

And we will complete Brexit, with or without a deal, right when the current forecasts predict the peak of Covid wave 2 deaths.

Now someone convince my why the markets are about to rise in the next 3 months?

You should go on newsnight or start one of those really loud and dramatic YouTube channels.
In the short run, even over a decade, the market has sweet fa to do with GDP. Returns are more correlated with the previous year's rainfall.
Debts will be dealt with the same way the Napoleonic and World Wars debts were dealt with (but we don't have any colonies to tax anymore and a lot of government spending, like the state pension is linked to inflation).
If you're that scared then how about long term gilts?

DireEmblem

If we think of the national debt a bit like a mortgage, then in order to have enough funds to pay it off in 30 years, I think I worked out that the Government needs to either raise our taxes by 2.5% and invest for the next 30 years, without impacting any other services they currently provide.

Thats not an exact figure. as say someone on a 40k salary, that's an extra £1000 they no longer have to spend potentially, of which 20% would have been taxed anyway.

Back on topic, myself I intend to see how things go on Monday, and invest anything I can afford to save into a cheap global equity tracker fund or the FTSE 100, as I think a lot of the companies current write downs are overstated.

bowlhead99

ProDave said:

Now someone convince my why the markets are about to rise in the next 3 months?

They may rise (as we have seen them higher than they are today, even when the world markets have had knowledge that there will be a Brexit and a potential change of US govt and no known timescale for a reliable covid vaccine to be sufficiently distributed to make that particular problem go away).

They may fall, because things might turn out worse than the markets currently expect. They may be 'about the same'.

As Keynes said, perhaps paraphrased, "I have reluctantly reached the conclusion that nothing is more suicidal than a rational investment policy in an irrational world”. Another old adage that may or may not be his, but circulating in investment circles for at least the last three decades: "The markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you or I can remain solvent".

ProDave

We each have our own investment strategy.

I would rather miss a rise because I was over cautious, than suffer a fall because I was too brave.

bowlhead99

ProDave said:

We each have our own investment strategy.

I would rather miss a rise because I was over cautious, than suffer a fall because I was too brave.

You have that in common with a lot of people. Caution (without over-caution) is a perfectly suitable position for anyone to take as we all have our own personal risk tolerance or risk capacity.

If you're in the situation where (per your other thread) a short to medium term loss would be more painful to your objective more than some missed growth, nobody would expect you to be holding mostly equities.

Prism

ProDave said:

We each have our own investment strategy.

I would rather miss a rise because I was over cautious, than suffer a fall because I was too brave.

I agree based on your other thread. I would also suggest next time have a proper think about your cautious allocation. For a sum of money that is designed to last around 10 years or so I would have very little in equities.