SIPP Flexi access drawdown based on Vanguard Lifestrategy x% equities

BritishInvestor

BritishInvestor said:

Prism said:

BritishInvestor said:

Do you have a link to that? I know the Russell 2000 had an issue with that but hadn't read of many other cases.
 I struggle to see how an active fund manager has been able to have an edge (maybe in illiquid small-cap areas?) since the mid-90s when the quants and their computers really started to take over.

A pure guess but I would imagine its because the growth based fund managers that have done well over recent years have been playing a different game than the quants who they are certainly not going to compete with. 

Ask a quant how they value Amazon and it will be based on stats, current price and likely shorter term price movements.
Ask Terry Smith how he values Amazon and he will tell you its in the wrong sector (retail) and doesn't yet return much on capital expended.
Ask James Anderson how he values Amazon and he will paint a mental picture of how Amazon will look within the world in 20 years or so.

The ones that have done well recently seem to be the ones that don't worry too much about current price.

"A pure guess but I would imagine its because the growth based fund managers that have done well over recent years have been playing a different game than the quants who they are certainly not going to compete with. "
Some quants do try and play the long game but, much like fund managers, once luck is removed aren't that successful. 

"Ask a quant how they value Amazon and it will be based on stats, current price and likely shorter term price movements."
Realistically they probably don't even care what it does or what it is called, more looking at the potential price movement (relative to other shares) over periods up to a few days. Even then the edges are tiny, the computing power required enormous and the brains required colossal. Why are they making it hard for themselves?


If any of the growth fund managers were able to predict that this factor was going to do well ten years ago they would've started a hedge fund, gone long growth and shorted value. It would've been an astonishing trade. I'm not aware of any that did. Why are they sharing their "profits" with punters? Most odd.

https://www.ft.com/content/fc7ce313-92f8-4f51-902b-f883afc1e035

"Ask James Anderson how he values Amazon"
I've no idea why you think his guess is any more valid than all the other market participants, each with access to the same information.

"The ones that have done well recently seem to be the ones that don't worry too much about current price."
That surely implies some sort of bubble/greater fool theory?

"Ask James Anderson how he values Amazon"
If these guys are selling are we at peak tech bubble?
https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/scottish-mortgage-sells-amazon-shares-questions-future-returns-of-1-7tn-giant/a1422336?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble
"Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%, only to fall 78% from its peak by October 2002, giving up all its gains during the bubble."
With companies like this and Netflix on multiples of 80-100 let's hope it's different this time.