House prices will plummet 10 percent

IveSeenTheLight

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

that's not actually right. Even slightly.

For example (as it's the most extreme one I can think of) land values fell in the early 1350s, and took over a hundred years to recover.

You do have a facination with the Bubonic plague don't you.
Do you envisage another manifestation of the plague to affect UK house prices again?

I'm interested to see if you can back this up with facts or not.

The reason is that while demand may have suffered greatly, I'm interested to know the levels of owner occupancy in the 14th century, how many transactions took place, how much property dropped as a percentage, may as well include the inflation rate so we can discuss the real house price affect and indeed how many potential owners were wiped out (I'm sure the deceased owners would have passed on their property through inheritance).

Looking forward to seeing your facts

neverdespairgirl

I don't, no.

I just don't like sweeping generalisations which are wrong.

Running_Horse

ringo_24601 wrote: »

I can afford my mortgage. I have a roof over my house and a job

Until those circumstances change, i will still not be bovvered so what's the hooha about the prices?

In the three years since quoting this last, the only things to have changed are interest rates falling, and three more years being paid off my mortgage. No idea what has happened to the value of my house, and don't care because I have no intention of selling it any time soon.

mynameisdave

Its amazing how mnay people are able to read articles about House Prices going down but seem incapable of reading the index on an internet forum.

Edit: Holy Thread revival batman.

IveSeenTheLight

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I don't, no.

I just don't like sweeping generalisations which are wrong.

So you don't like sweeping generalisations which are wrong yet you make statements of fact that cannot be proven and you admit you don't know the details.

SG27

House prices falling are good for first time buyers and make it cheaper to upsize. So they are not a bad thing. Unless you've bought for only speculative investment reasons.

Hemichromis

scope wrote: »

I was gonna say, 10% is nothing in todays market, hardly a crash. My old house went up 15-20% every year for the 6 years I kept it.

But then again, nobody knows what the future will bring.

Very true, even these experts have conflicting opinions.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

IveSeenTheLight, I'm more than happy to stick my neck out and say that yes, I believe prices at the address quoted in Aberdeen will fall to at or below their 2005/6 prices. Aberdeen was one of the last places to have felt the full impact of rising prices that hit the rest of the UK much earlier, and as such, will be one of the first to fall.

But that's not what you want to hear, is it?

I was reminded of this thread today and found it interesting that the property used in this test resold last year and had not dropped in price.

http://www.yourhomeprice.co.uk/freesearch/searchpmfreetestlocnw.php?s=20&q=AB10&q1=6SQ

No 22 resold in 2011 for £140k, a long cry from the 40% drop predicted (2005 / 2006 prices)

IveSeenTheLight

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I don't believe it that they will be 40% cheaper in real terms in 5 years time and definately not in the longer term.

Lets test that though.
As an example
Property 22 Albyn Grove, Aberdeen, AB10 6SQ has the following sales (data taken from nethouseprices): -
£61,000 03/12/02
£63,511 05/08/03
£63,511 28/07/04
£131,313 07/02/07
£135,000 15/05/07
£140,000 23/08/07

UK inflation is 1.9%, compounded this £140,000 property should be £150,947 in 5 years time.
So in 5 years time, you expect this property to be in real terms 40% cheaper or £90,568 (£150,947 * 0.6)

Lets see

Ok, the 5 year test is up and another sample is run.
Since 5 years ago, the test property has sold twice, in 2011 and in 2012.
We can see that as per the average market price for the area, the prices have nominally stagnated, thus not kept up with real term inflation, but not fallen or crashed.

Some predicted they would be circa £90,568, however the last two sales were £140k in Oct 2011 and £141,863 in June 2012.

A far cry from the 40% Real Term correction cited.