Agile octopus - prices creeping up!

chamelion

There used to be a huge discussion thread on agile octopus here but it appears to have been removed? 

Anyone else on agile who has been experiencing the significant price increases over the past month? Higher rates through the day. I thought the stretch of sunny days and / or huge wind storms over past few weeks would see some big drops but its only getting pricier! 

It's tied to wholesale but any ideas why prices have gone up so much? 

ASavvyBuyer

chamelion said:

There used to be a huge discussion thread on agile octopus here but it appears to have been removed? 

Anyone else on agile who has been experiencing the significant price increases over the past month? Higher rates through the day. I thought the stretch of sunny days and / or huge wind storms over past few weeks would see some big drops but its only getting pricier! 

It's tied to wholesale but any ideas why prices have gone up so much? 

I think it is mainly because the National Grid are paying the nuclear power stations to run at reduced power because of the COVID lockdown. They seem a bit slow to realise that things are coming out of lockdown and therefore more power is needed.

Therefore the wholesale price for electricity is going up. Auction price for tomorrow is the highest I have seen for a long time.

[Deleted User]

Widely discussed on other forums. NG paid the nuclear generators to scale down output for CV19. It is unlikely that they factored in the recent heat and thunderstorms. Turning up the nuclear output has to be managed by ensuring that there is always sufficient redundant capacity to step in if nuclear ramp up stalls or has to be reduced to prevent grid outages. European import prices are apparently high because of lower solar output and high grid losses (high temps), and increased domestic cooling demand. Wholesale gas prices have also increased and are forecast to keep on rising.

Quote: The latest day ahead wholesale price was 21.2p/therm (0.72p/kwh). This is indeed higher than it has been since March, though 25% less than it was most of last Winter or even last summer.

Q4 2020 is currently trading at 33p/therm, Q1 2021 at 39p/therm, Q2 2021 at 31p/therm, Q3 2021 at 30p/therm (https://www.powernext.com/futures-market-data 2 - look at All Contracts, NBP). As a result, we can still expect a fair increase in the gas price from now until winter, and next year to be higher than it is right now.

Note that a doubling in the wholesale price is only about a 50% increase in the retail price, given the significant fixed adder. Unquote

Credit: glipman

Gerry1

chamelion said:

Gerry1 said:

Well, Octopus have to claw back that £100,000 that's gone to their fund for defunding the police and closing down the prisons !

Not sure what interest you have spreading controversial messaging for something not at all controversial? 

The links are purely factual.  You're entitled to think that defunding the police and closing down the prisons isn't controversial, but don't expect everyone to agree with you.

chamelion

Gerry1 said:

chamelion said:

Gerry1 said:

Well, Octopus have to claw back that £100,000 that's gone to their fund for defunding the police and closing down the prisons !

Not sure what interest you have spreading controversial messaging for something not at all controversial? 

The links are purely factual.  You're entitled to think that defunding the police and closing down the prisons isn't controversial, but don't expect everyone to agree with you.

You got me wrong. The £100k announcement is for a completely non controversial investment octopus are making in their internal BAME awareness and recruitment. If they're hiking prices for that, I have no qualms paying more. 

You've somehow linked this internal £100k investment with a controversial topic, of which I don't see any proof. i.e. i don't see Octopus shouting to defund the police or shut down prisons. 

Gerry1

chamelion said:

Gerry1 said:

chamelion said:

Gerry1 said:

Well, Octopus have to claw back that £100,000 that's gone to their fund for defunding the police and closing down the prisons !

Not sure what interest you have spreading controversial messaging for something not at all controversial? 

The links are purely factual.  You're entitled to think that defunding the police and closing down the prisons isn't controversial, but don't expect everyone to agree with you.

You got me wrong. The £100k announcement is for a completely non controversial investment octopus are making in their internal BAME awareness and recruitment. If they're hiking prices for that, I have no qualms paying more. 

You've somehow linked this internal £100k investment with a controversial topic, of which I don't see any proof. i.e. i don't see Octopus shouting to defund the police or shut down prisons. 

If you had studied both pages to which I linked, you would have been aware that:-

• Octopus's website states that "We stand in solidarity with the Black Lives Matter movement"; and

• The Black Lives Matter website states "We call for a national defunding of police" and "It’s time for our cities and states to #DefundThePolice".

None so blind as those that will not see...

chamelion

Gerry1 said:

chamelion said:

Gerry1 said:

chamelion said:

Gerry1 said:

Well, Octopus have to claw back that £100,000 that's gone to their fund for defunding the police and closing down the prisons !

Not sure what interest you have spreading controversial messaging for something not at all controversial? 

The links are purely factual.  You're entitled to think that defunding the police and closing down the prisons isn't controversial, but don't expect everyone to agree with you.

You got me wrong. The £100k announcement is for a completely non controversial investment octopus are making in their internal BAME awareness and recruitment. If they're hiking prices for that, I have no qualms paying more. 

You've somehow linked this internal £100k investment with a controversial topic, of which I don't see any proof. i.e. i don't see Octopus shouting to defund the police or shut down prisons. 

If you had studied both pages to which I linked, you would have been aware that:-

• Octopus's website states that "We stand in solidarity with the Black Lives Matter movement"; and

• The Black Lives Matter website states "We call for a national defunding of police" and "It’s time for our cities and states to #DefundThePolice".

None so blind as those that will not see...

Ah right. OK you're drawing tenuous links like that. Not sure I can argue with your perspective there. Anyway. Back to topic. 

[Deleted User]

Gerry1 said:

Well, Octopus have to claw back that £100,000 that's gone to their fund for defunding the police and closing down the prisons !

Let us put this one to bed. The 30 minute pricing used for the Octopus Agile tariff is based on an algorithm which hasn't changed in the 12 months that I have had SMETS2 meters.

The algorithm used for pricing is as follows:

min(2.20x W+P, 33.33)

Where:

2.20 is a coefficient that includes distribution costs which VARIES depending on the electrical supply region (similar to standing charges)

W is the wholesale cost of electricity for that period in pence per kWh. W is determined by a daily electricity market auction which takes place at c.4pm each day.

P is peak time premium which has a value of 12.0p between 4pm and 7pm

33.33 exists to limit the maximum premium price of 35p/kWh (inc VAT)

In sum, the only variable that Octopus does not control is 'W'. The other variables are in Octopus' control but, as far as I know, have not changed since the Agile tariff hit the market in 2018.

Wholesale prices can be found here:  https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/Market-data1/#/n2ex/table

MWT

[Deleted User] said:

P is peak time premium which has a value of 12.0p between 4pm and 7pm

Small correction, P varies between regions, Eastern for example is 13.0p

[Deleted User]

MWT said:

Dolor said:

P is peak time premium which has a value of 12.0p between 4pm and 7pm

Small correction, P varies between regions, Eastern for example is 13.0p

I am only repeating, I think, what is stated in an Octopus Blog:

https://octopus.energy/blog/agile-pricing-explained/

MWT

[Deleted User] said:

I am only repeating, I think, what is stated in an Octopus Blog:
https://octopus.energy/blog/agile-pricing-explained/

Understood, but it still needs correcting as the value of P is not in fact constant across all regions.