Is a recession a good time to buy?

Crashy_Time

Anamox said:

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

There is no right or wrong time to buy a property if it is going to be a long term home.

The tail end of the biggest bubble in history and the start of a major recession is the wrong time, whatever kind of home it is going to be.

Extrapolating data from your comment history it looks like you've been predicting this bubble bursting imminently for more than half a decade... considering we're still 4 million houses short and mortgages are now stress tested to the extremes (thus most of us can now afford the houses we buy) it seems unlikely anything will be happening anytime soon. Even when you factor in COVID-19 job losses, they are predominantly in industries in which the workers likely don't own a house and aren't likely to have ever been prospective buyers nor are about to default on a mortgage. The higher level redundancies we're seeing are with people that are most likely qualified enough to move into another role elsewhere.

Why are transactions at half peak level (ignoring the Covid phase of near zero) in that case? Unless the workers you mention already live with parents their landlord will be defaulting, or do you think the millions of homeless will line up to take the flat? And the offices into flats phase is only just beginning...
https://www.scottishhousingnews.com/article/plans-to-convert-aberdeen-office-block-into-modern-living-space
The "housing shortage" is pure mythology I`m afraid.

Parking_Eyerate

I’d really like to buy a detached house with off-street parking, so there is at least some demand for a detached house with off-street parking. I can’t afford to buy one in the area I want to live though, so I haven’t been a party to a transaction. Does that mean that the demand has gone away?

Angela_D_3

The government would rather eat their own children than allow a repeat of the 90's.   There were 20 million less people in the country then, the possibility of housing the homeless families would be beyond comprehension.  They will do anything to prevent it.

Marvel1

Bought before it started late 2007, never recoverd, but I have a roof over my head and mortgage is much cheaper than rent for someone elses mortgage.

Scotbot

Crashy_Time said:

Anamox said:

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

There is no right or wrong time to buy a property if it is going to be a long term home.

The tail end of the biggest bubble in history and the start of a major recession is the wrong time, whatever kind of home it is going to be.

Extrapolating data from your comment history it looks like you've been predicting this bubble bursting imminently for more than half a decade... considering we're still 4 million houses short and mortgages are now stress tested to the extremes (thus most of us can now afford the houses we buy) it seems unlikely anything will be happening anytime soon. Even when you factor in COVID-19 job losses, they are predominantly in industries in which the workers likely don't own a house and aren't likely to have ever been prospective buyers nor are about to default on a mortgage. The higher level redundancies we're seeing are with people that are most likely qualified enough to move into another role elsewhere.

Why are transactions at half peak level (ignoring the Covid phase of near zero) in that case? 

Because of the cost of moving prior to the SDLT holiday. You can build an extension for the same cost in many areas. You can't get a builder round here for love nor money they are booked up 6 months in advance. For the same reason FTBs are no longer buying small flats  then trading up a couple of years later instead  they wait a bit longer then buy the 3 bed house

Thrugelmir

There's an old saying. When somebody else loses their job it's a recession. When you lose your own it's a depression. Decisions all depend on individual personal circumstances. 

Crashy_Time

Scotbot said:

Crashy_Time said:

Anamox said:

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

There is no right or wrong time to buy a property if it is going to be a long term home.

The tail end of the biggest bubble in history and the start of a major recession is the wrong time, whatever kind of home it is going to be.

Extrapolating data from your comment history it looks like you've been predicting this bubble bursting imminently for more than half a decade... considering we're still 4 million houses short and mortgages are now stress tested to the extremes (thus most of us can now afford the houses we buy) it seems unlikely anything will be happening anytime soon. Even when you factor in COVID-19 job losses, they are predominantly in industries in which the workers likely don't own a house and aren't likely to have ever been prospective buyers nor are about to default on a mortgage. The higher level redundancies we're seeing are with people that are most likely qualified enough to move into another role elsewhere.

Why are transactions at half peak level (ignoring the Covid phase of near zero) in that case? 

Because of the cost of moving prior to the SDLT holiday. You can build an extension for the same cost in many areas. You can't get a builder round here for love nor money they are booked up 6 months in advance. For the same reason FTBs are no longer buying small flats  then trading up a couple of years later instead  they wait a bit longer then buy the 3 bed house

So you really seriously believe that falling transactions prior to Covid had nothing to do with the actual price of the house?

Sibbers123

If you’re already on the property ladder, a recession will hit you regardless whether you move or not. I’d probably be cautious if upsizing significantly. For FTBs, the risk is greater as they could lose all their deposit and be mortgage prisoners for years to come.

Prices will fall in the new year, which is rather obvious with all lenders tightening up their lending criteria. They won’t fall drastically as everyone needs a roof over their head and in 3-5 years we will be back were we are now.

If the perfect long term house comes up, go for it. If you are going to be moving again in a few years, I’d probably hang fire.

Everyone should consider their job security and the potential impact of a second wave of Coronavirus in the winter on their income before taking on additional debt in the current climate. 

I’d certainly avoid buying a highly geared BTL at the moment with the unemployment rate increasing with length and costly eviction processes undoubtedly increasing over the next 6 months.

Crashy_Time

Sibbers123 said:

If you’re already on the property ladder, a recession will hit you regardless whether you move or not. I’d probably be cautious if upsizing significantly. For FTBs, the risk is greater as they could lose all their deposit and be mortgage prisoners for years to come.

Prices will fall in the new year, which is rather obvious with all lenders tightening up their lending criteria. They won’t fall drastically as everyone needs a roof over their head and in 3-5 years we will be back were we are now.

If the perfect long term house comes up, go for it. If you are going to be moving again in a few years, I’d probably hang fire.

Everyone should consider their job security and the potential impact of a second wave of Coronavirus in the winter on their income before taking on additional debt in the current climate. 

I’d certainly avoid buying a highly geared BTL at the moment with the unemployment rate increasing with length and costly eviction processes undoubtedly increasing over the next 6 months.

Everyone has always needed a roof over their head, nothing new there,but this is the biggest bubble in history, how do you explain that?

iwb100

Buying anytime is a risk. And the risk relates to personal circumstances. Boom periods are risky if not riskier than recessions to buy in just for a different set of reasons.