Ray Dalio's all weather portfolio

Prism

sixpence. said:

Aminatidi said:

I wouldn't take the Ray Dalio portfolio necessarily literally but it seems a good advert for diversification and that over the long term you can make reasonable returns and limit downside by doing so.

I have about 85% of my invested wealth split between Personal Assets Trust and Capital Gearing Trust both of which I think are about as close to an "all weather" type allocation as you can easily get.

I sleep at night.

Link us to these trusts please so we can contextualise them in terms of Dalio's idea?
Honestly, I'm reading about commodities right now and while gold makes sense, I am not really commodities other than gold. Oil seems stupid if the USA has sorted out fracking on home ground. I can't work out why you wouldn't just invest in gold. Also, oil hasn't negatively correlated with equities since 2008; some say this is because the way we get it has changed, some say this is because it hasn't reverted back to the normal negative correlation yet. 

https://patplc.co.uk/portfolio
Personal Assets Trusts is quite easy to understand as it is relatively high conviction.
http://www.capitalgearingtrust.com/investors/reports/2020
Capital Gearing Trust has more smaller holdings - you are probably best using a recent factsheet.

TBC15

Aminatidi said:

I wouldn't take the Ray Dalio portfolio necessarily literally but it seems a good advert for diversification and that over the long term you can make reasonable returns and limit downside by doing so.

I have about 85% of my invested wealth split between Personal Assets Trust and Capital Gearing Trust both of which I think are about as close to an "all weather" type allocation as you can easily get.

I sleep at night.

10% return over 3 years. 

I’d be having nightmares even when I was awake.

Aminatidi

TBC15 said:

Aminatidi said:

I wouldn't take the Ray Dalio portfolio necessarily literally but it seems a good advert for diversification and that over the long term you can make reasonable returns and limit downside by doing so.

I have about 85% of my invested wealth split between Personal Assets Trust and Capital Gearing Trust both of which I think are about as close to an "all weather" type allocation as you can easily get.

I sleep at night.

10% return over 3 years. 

I’d be having nightmares even when I was awake.

On a 50/50 mix of the two it's 15.6% over three years so not sure where 10% is coming from.

For comparison to a common 60/40 something like LifeStrategy 60 is 16.9% over three years.

I'm not sure 3 years is a fair measure of much which is why you have to look at the long term record of those sorts of funds.

The next 10 years probably aren't going to be the same as the past 10 where you couldn't really not make money if you were investing.

Aminatidi

Prism said:

sixpence. said:

Aminatidi said:

I wouldn't take the Ray Dalio portfolio necessarily literally but it seems a good advert for diversification and that over the long term you can make reasonable returns and limit downside by doing so.

I have about 85% of my invested wealth split between Personal Assets Trust and Capital Gearing Trust both of which I think are about as close to an "all weather" type allocation as you can easily get.

I sleep at night.

Link us to these trusts please so we can contextualise them in terms of Dalio's idea?
Honestly, I'm reading about commodities right now and while gold makes sense, I am not really commodities other than gold. Oil seems stupid if the USA has sorted out fracking on home ground. I can't work out why you wouldn't just invest in gold. Also, oil hasn't negatively correlated with equities since 2008; some say this is because the way we get it has changed, some say this is because it hasn't reverted back to the normal negative correlation yet. 

https://patplc.co.uk/portfolio
Personal Assets Trusts is quite easy to understand as it is relatively high conviction.
http://www.capitalgearingtrust.com/investors/reports/2020
Capital Gearing Trust has more smaller holdings - you are probably best using a recent factsheet.

Yes those two.

I tend to see Capital Gearing a something where CG Asset Management are looking for undervalued opportunities and I see Personal Assets Trust as almost a "Fundsmith" holding type steady eddie equities.

No idea which will pay off in the future hence 50/50 in each.

Interesting when you read the quarterlies on their websites as to how they both see the future.

Of course no guarantees of anything but they've both been doing this for a long time.

Thrugelmir

sixpence. said:

Aminatidi said:

I wouldn't take the Ray Dalio portfolio necessarily literally but it seems a good advert for diversification and that over the long term you can make reasonable returns and limit downside by doing so.

I have about 85% of my invested wealth split between Personal Assets Trust and Capital Gearing Trust both of which I think are about as close to an "all weather" type allocation as you can easily get.

I sleep at night.

Honestly, I'm reading about commodities right now and while gold makes sense, I am not really commodities other than gold. Oil seems stupid if the USA has sorted out fracking on home ground. I can't work out why you wouldn't just invest in gold. Also, oil hasn't negatively correlated with equities since 2008; some say this is because the way we get it has changed, some say this is because it hasn't reverted back to the normal negative correlation yet. 

There's four broad categories of commodity. Metal. energy, livestock and meat, and agricultural. Within these sit around 90 different traded commodities. Majority of which are traded and priced in U$. Hence why portfolios are diversified with their inclusion. 

sixpence.

Thrugelmir said:

sixpence. said:

Aminatidi said:

I wouldn't take the Ray Dalio portfolio necessarily literally but it seems a good advert for diversification and that over the long term you can make reasonable returns and limit downside by doing so.

I have about 85% of my invested wealth split between Personal Assets Trust and Capital Gearing Trust both of which I think are about as close to an "all weather" type allocation as you can easily get.

I sleep at night.

Honestly, I'm reading about commodities right now and while gold makes sense, I am not really commodities other than gold. Oil seems stupid if the USA has sorted out fracking on home ground. I can't work out why you wouldn't just invest in gold. Also, oil hasn't negatively correlated with equities since 2008; some say this is because the way we get it has changed, some say this is because it hasn't reverted back to the normal negative correlation yet. 

There's four broad categories of commodity. Metal. energy, livestock and meat, and agricultural. Within these sit around 90 different traded commodities. Majority of which are traded and priced in U$. Hence why portfolios are diversified with their inclusion. 

Gold hedges against the dollar... but if you earn (buy) in GBP then how does that work? If you're in a VLS 80 + gold (just two funds) then I don't understand how fluctuations of the dollar would work in this sense. Does it just make the balancing effect of gold even more impactful? 

TBC15

Aminatidi said:

TBC15 said:

Aminatidi said:

I wouldn't take the Ray Dalio portfolio necessarily literally but it seems a good advert for diversification and that over the long term you can make reasonable returns and limit downside by doing so.

I have about 85% of my invested wealth split between Personal Assets Trust and Capital Gearing Trust both of which I think are about as close to an "all weather" type allocation as you can easily get.

I sleep at night.

10% return over 3 years. 

I’d be having nightmares even when I was awake.

On a 50/50 mix of the two it's 15.6% over three years so not sure where 10% is coming from.

For comparison to a common 60/40 something like LifeStrategy 60 is 16.9% over three years.

I'm not sure 3 years is a fair measure of much which is why you have to look at the long term record of those sorts of funds.

The next 10 years probably aren't going to be the same as the past 10 where you couldn't really not make money if you were investing.

Your right you know. I should have gone to specsavers.

noClue

TBC15 said:

Aminatidi said:

TBC15 said:

Aminatidi said:

I wouldn't take the Ray Dalio portfolio necessarily literally but it seems a good advert for diversification and that over the long term you can make reasonable returns and limit downside by doing so.

I have about 85% of my invested wealth split between Personal Assets Trust and Capital Gearing Trust both of which I think are about as close to an "all weather" type allocation as you can easily get.

I sleep at night.

10% return over 3 years. 

I’d be having nightmares even when I was awake.

On a 50/50 mix of the two it's 15.6% over three years so not sure where 10% is coming from.

For comparison to a common 60/40 something like LifeStrategy 60 is 16.9% over three years.

I'm not sure 3 years is a fair measure of much which is why you have to look at the long term record of those sorts of funds.

The next 10 years probably aren't going to be the same as the past 10 where you couldn't really not make money if you were investing.

Your right you know. I should have gone to specsavers.

Barnard Castle*

TBC15

noClue said:

TBC15 said:

Aminatidi said:

TBC15 said:

Aminatidi said:

I wouldn't take the Ray Dalio portfolio necessarily literally but it seems a good advert for diversification and that over the long term you can make reasonable returns and limit downside by doing so.

I have about 85% of my invested wealth split between Personal Assets Trust and Capital Gearing Trust both of which I think are about as close to an "all weather" type allocation as you can easily get.

I sleep at night.

10% return over 3 years. 

I’d be having nightmares even when I was awake.

On a 50/50 mix of the two it's 15.6% over three years so not sure where 10% is coming from.

For comparison to a common 60/40 something like LifeStrategy 60 is 16.9% over three years.

I'm not sure 3 years is a fair measure of much which is why you have to look at the long term record of those sorts of funds.

The next 10 years probably aren't going to be the same as the past 10 where you couldn't really not make money if you were investing.

Your right you know. I should have gone to specsavers.

Barnard Castle*

If it’s recommended by HM government, who am I to argue?

thickasabrick

sixpence. said:

Ray Dalio invented this portfolio called the all weather portfolio. It basically spreads risk via asset allocation by choosing asset classes which negatively correlate with each other. Seen a couple of interviews with him and he seems very gifted and like he genuinely cares about people. What do folk on here think Ray's all weather portfolio? 

"The top 4 portfolios to recession proof your investments" article from Portfolio Charts compares the "All Seasons" portfolio against a couple of others.
"Long story short, the four portfolios most immune to recessions are specifically designed to balance the underlying assets based on internal volatility and/or external economic conditions. Anyone looking to protect their own portfolio should give strong consideration to similar risk management strategies." 
As mentioned earlier in the thread by a couple of posters, it's about risk management and protecting their existing portfolio. So probably not one to choose if you are looking for growth.