Keep losing out - current market experiences (Scotland)

caprikid1

To be honest I would hate to sound like Crashy but I would just wait a year, there is a lot of pent up demand chasing too few properties, once furlough and bounce back cash washes out the system there is a world of pain surely coming that cannot continue to support the market in this way. Lots of people wanting to move, more space out of London etc but this really is short term demand.

comeandgo

orangecrush said:

I last bought in Scotland in 2004, so a long time ago, and I'm not sure how the HR valuation stacks up compared to mortgage valuation, but we're pretty much putting our faith in the mortgage valuer to knock down any super inflated values.  That may be unwise, but we do need to move so kind of have to go with it!

In terms of how the recession may impact, and when, it very much depends where you are.  Edinburgh for example wasn't massively hit by the 2008 crash, there was a brief dip in prices but it recovered fairly quickly.  So if you're buying there, I wouldn't put your hopes on a recession correcting the hype.  If you're in a less desirable area, then once the longer term economic effects of covid are apparent then yes there may be impacts, but I'd be surprised if there was widespread tank-age of property prices. 

Do not rely on the mortgage values bringing the price down.  The buyer then has to find the difference or pull out if they don't have the money.  

JenST84

orangecrush said:

I last bought in Scotland in 2004, so a long time ago, and I'm not sure how the HR valuation stacks up compared to mortgage valuation, but we're pretty much putting our faith in the mortgage valuer to knock down any super inflated values.  That may be unwise, but we do need to move so kind of have to go with it!

In terms of how the recession may impact, and when, it very much depends where you are.  Edinburgh for example wasn't massively hit by the 2008 crash, there was a brief dip in prices but it recovered fairly quickly.  So if you're buying there, I wouldn't put your hopes on a recession correcting the hype.  If you're in a less desirable area, then once the longer term economic effects of covid are apparent then yes there may be impacts, but I'd be surprised if there was widespread tank-age of property prices. 

Fortunately we're not trying to buy in Edinburgh, we're west of Glasgow.  All the advice we've had is that HR value IS the property value when it comes to a mortgage, so no wiggle room there.  We're not looking or waiting for the prices to drop, just for the sheer panic buying right now to slow down.  When I speak with friends/family, etc. who bought prior to the lockdown it seemed so different (obviously).  Homes being sold under HR value at times, but certainly not £10-£30k over, unless in a really desirable and popular area.  The estate agents we've spoken with are even saying the number of closing dates is unprecedented.  Right now it's supply and demand.

We've worked out what we can comfortably afford and have the deposit to match - we just don't have and aren't prepared to spend masses over a valuation.  Give us a few more weeks/months of what we've been up against and that may have changed!

orangecrush

comeandgo said:

orangecrush said:

I last bought in Scotland in 2004, so a long time ago, and I'm not sure how the HR valuation stacks up compared to mortgage valuation, but we're pretty much putting our faith in the mortgage valuer to knock down any super inflated values.  That may be unwise, but we do need to move so kind of have to go with it!

In terms of how the recession may impact, and when, it very much depends where you are.  Edinburgh for example wasn't massively hit by the 2008 crash, there was a brief dip in prices but it recovered fairly quickly.  So if you're buying there, I wouldn't put your hopes on a recession correcting the hype.  If you're in a less desirable area, then once the longer term economic effects of covid are apparent then yes there may be impacts, but I'd be surprised if there was widespread tank-age of property prices. 

Do not rely on the mortgage values bringing the price down.  The buyer then has to find the difference or pull out if they don't have the money.  

Or the vendor accepts the difference, or the vendor and buyer split the difference... Lots of options, including walking away, but the vendor would have to take the chance that another valuer would not do the same... So, it's a bet we're willing to make, others may not I guess!. 

JenST84 said:

orangecrush said:

I last bought in Scotland in 2004, so a long time ago, and I'm not sure how the HR valuation stacks up compared to mortgage valuation, but we're pretty much putting our faith in the mortgage valuer to knock down any super inflated values.  That may be unwise, but we do need to move so kind of have to go with it!

In terms of how the recession may impact, and when, it very much depends where you are.  Edinburgh for example wasn't massively hit by the 2008 crash, there was a brief dip in prices but it recovered fairly quickly.  So if you're buying there, I wouldn't put your hopes on a recession correcting the hype.  If you're in a less desirable area, then once the longer term economic effects of covid are apparent then yes there may be impacts, but I'd be surprised if there was widespread tank-age of property prices. 

Fortunately we're not trying to buy in Edinburgh, we're west of Glasgow.  All the advice we've had is that HR value IS the property value when it comes to a mortgage, so no wiggle room there.  We're not looking or waiting for the prices to drop, just for the sheer panic buying right now to slow down.  When I speak with friends/family, etc. who bought prior to the lockdown it seemed so different (obviously).  Homes being sold under HR value at times, but certainly not £10-£30k over, unless in a really desirable and popular area.  The estate agents we've spoken with are even saying the number of closing dates is unprecedented.  Right now it's supply and demand.

We've worked out what we can comfortably afford and have the deposit to match - we just don't have and aren't prepared to spend masses over a valuation.  Give us a few more weeks/months of what we've been up against and that may have changed!

Ah I love the west of Scotland!  I wish my work could be there!  I worked in Glasgow for a while and loved it and I always thought it would be lovely to move to the coast and work compressed hours in Glasgow.  But then we got relocated  

 

Anyhoo!  It sounds like you can afford to take your time, so definitely do what you're comfortable with.  We almost quit for the same reasons you did - ridiculous amounts of hype and useless estate agents - but then this house came along and so far it has worked out.  Totally feel your pain though - it is infuriating isn't it!

getmore4less

JenST84 said:

Fortunately we're not trying to buy in Edinburgh, we're west of Glasgow.  

From my brief look for that other post it's not looking good on the numbers depending on how tight you geographical is you could be looking at low numbers.

What's you budget and target property type.

JenST84

getmore4less said:

JenST84 said:

Fortunately we're not trying to buy in Edinburgh, we're west of Glasgow.  

From my brief look for that other post it's not looking good on the numbers depending on how tight you geographical is you could be looking at low numbers.

What's you budget and target property type.

Looking for a 3 bed house.  Highest we want to go to is £240k to avoid having a huge mortgage when we're not the youngest first time buyers.  We've even looked at 2 bed houses that have scope to extend, but constant closing dates and sellers being swayed by high offers (don't blame them at all) means our ability to move quickly doesn't have the leverage it once did.  We are restricting our areas of search based on where we want to live so we're expecting to wait a while and know the disappointments with higher offers being made will keep coming.  We're just hoping the frenzy calms down.  

RelievedSheff

JenST84 said:

getmore4less said:

JenST84 said:

Fortunately we're not trying to buy in Edinburgh, we're west of Glasgow.  

From my brief look for that other post it's not looking good on the numbers depending on how tight you geographical is you could be looking at low numbers.

What's you budget and target property type.

Looking for a 3 bed house.  Highest we want to go to is £240k to avoid having a huge mortgage when we're not the youngest first time buyers.  We've even looked at 2 bed houses that have scope to extend, but constant closing dates and sellers being swayed by high offers (don't blame them at all) means our ability to move quickly doesn't have the leverage it once did.  We are restricting our areas of search based on where we want to live so we're expecting to wait a while and know the disappointments with higher offers being made will keep coming.  We're just hoping the frenzy calms down.  

The trouble with that is you are restricting yourself to areas where your budget doesn't stretch to what you want. If you broaden your search area just a little it might bring with it some more affordable property.

We love the West Coast of Scotland. We have family who live up there just west of Scotland in a little village called Lugton. It is a beautiful part of the country.

JenST84

RelievedSheff said:

JenST84 said:

getmore4less said:

JenST84 said:

Fortunately we're not trying to buy in Edinburgh, we're west of Glasgow.  

From my brief look for that other post it's not looking good on the numbers depending on how tight you geographical is you could be looking at low numbers.

What's you budget and target property type.

Looking for a 3 bed house.  Highest we want to go to is £240k to avoid having a huge mortgage when we're not the youngest first time buyers.  We've even looked at 2 bed houses that have scope to extend, but constant closing dates and sellers being swayed by high offers (don't blame them at all) means our ability to move quickly doesn't have the leverage it once did.  We are restricting our areas of search based on where we want to live so we're expecting to wait a while and know the disappointments with higher offers being made will keep coming.  We're just hoping the frenzy calms down.  

The trouble with that is you are restricting yourself to areas where your budget doesn't stretch to what you want. If you broaden your search area just a little it might bring with it some more affordable property.

We love the West Coast of Scotland. We have family who live up there just west of Scotland in a little village called Lugton. It is a beautiful part of the country.

Thanks, but I disagree.  Prior to lockdown houses were not being sold in the areas we're interested in £10k+ over value on the home report.  If you go over home report value you have to fund the amount out of your own cash reserves, you cannot borrow this.  The areas we're looking aren't out of our reach as they are valued well within our range, the issue is the pent up demand and buyer's abilities to put down cash of their own.  If you read back, whilst we can stretch a little, we don't want to on a matter of principal.  I was looking for a bit of a steer on how other people are dealing with this and any signs it might be calming down a little.

RelievedSheff

Disagreeing isn't getting you a house though. It doesn't matter what your money might have bought you six months ago. It doesn't buy you that now. So if you want to buy a house now then you have to look realistically at what your budget gets you now.

No one knows how long this "mini boom" is going to last. All the pointers are that the market should slow down but who would have predicted the situation we are currently in when the country went into lock down in March?

orangecrush

JenST84 said:

RelievedSheff said:

JenST84 said:

getmore4less said:

JenST84 said:

Fortunately we're not trying to buy in Edinburgh, we're west of Glasgow.  

From my brief look for that other post it's not looking good on the numbers depending on how tight you geographical is you could be looking at low numbers.

What's you budget and target property type.

Looking for a 3 bed house.  Highest we want to go to is £240k to avoid having a huge mortgage when we're not the youngest first time buyers.  We've even looked at 2 bed houses that have scope to extend, but constant closing dates and sellers being swayed by high offers (don't blame them at all) means our ability to move quickly doesn't have the leverage it once did.  We are restricting our areas of search based on where we want to live so we're expecting to wait a while and know the disappointments with higher offers being made will keep coming.  We're just hoping the frenzy calms down.  

The trouble with that is you are restricting yourself to areas where your budget doesn't stretch to what you want. If you broaden your search area just a little it might bring with it some more affordable property.

We love the West Coast of Scotland. We have family who live up there just west of Scotland in a little village called Lugton. It is a beautiful part of the country.

Thanks, but I disagree.  Prior to lockdown houses were not being sold in the areas we're interested in £10k+ over value on the home report.  If you go over home report value you have to fund the amount out of your own cash reserves, you cannot borrow this.  The areas we're looking aren't out of our reach as they are valued well within our range, the issue is the pent up demand and buyer's abilities to put down cash of their own.  If you read back, whilst we can stretch a little, we don't want to on a matter of principal.  I was looking for a bit of a steer on how other people are dealing with this and any signs it might be calming down a little.

Prior to lockdown there was no pent up demand, there were no stamp duty changes... I guess the way you deal with it is either play the game, or wait patiently.  Or - as suggested - try a different market.  You can't make the market be what you want it to be sadly.

I can't imagine it will calm down in the immediate short term; perhaps next year once stamp duty changes are undone?  If you're genuinely in no rush I would just turn off Rightmove alerts and sit tight until next April.  Things may be clearer then (but note, they may not!)