Ripple Energy wind farm?

Verdigris

barker77 said:

Sorry still not sure I understand. Is the return on investment listed on the ripple site somewhere ?! 

I wouldn't have reserved a share if the figures hadn't been on their website.

There are various presentations on Youtube, too.

barker77

Hmm thats making me really nervous - was hoping there might be something a bit more concrete than that on the website! 

Coastalwatch said:

barker77 said:

Can I ask where the figure of 4p kWh came from? I guess with electric potentially about to become 35p plus then I’m interested if that figure is more like 8p for example? 

From my understanding its the average annual cost per kWh of energy that the figure is based upon. So while figures this winter are very high it is likely these will be tempered by lower costs from other seasons. Of course the wholesale cost of energy is not the only factor taken into account with price charged for each kWh. I believe maintenance and transmission costs make up approx 60% of it. What we save with Ripple is the difference between average wholesale cost and that from the wind farm. While it was originally envisaged to be 4p/kWh it is now likely to be considerably more, but precisely how much will only become known once generation commences and the fresh wholesale cost of energy is announced. Afraid I can be no more precise than that presently.

QrizB

Coastalwatch said:

When costs were originally calculated, against low evergy prices, savings per kWh were approx 4p and the ROI projected to be 14years. The life of the turbine is 20-25 years. It is difficult to predict energy prices over that period of time. I believe with the current increase in energy prices the ROI is predicted to have reduced now to 12 years.

Looking at https://rippleenergy.com/reservation-fee/offer this morning and clicking on "costs and savings"
 I get a pop-up with this example:

• Buy 900 watts of Ripple for £1555
• Generate 2882kWh/yr
• Save £110/yr, a total of £2743 over the life of the project

Acknowledging these are only illustrative values, that suggests a break-even period of 14 years and a 25-year return of ~5% pa. (Investing £1555 at 5% and withdrawing £9.17 monthly would leave you with nothing after 25 years).

Verdigris

As far as I can see, the only way you would lose on this scheme is if a novel form of generation became abundantly available at a lower cost than onshore wind. But quite frankly, if that happened, we'd all be quids-in with low energy bills, anyway.

My aim is to be able to run my house and car on entirely green electricity, from solar PV and this investment, and to become a net exporter. If the returns from Ripple covered my costs, in the form of standing charge for using the grid to make this possible, I shall be very happy.

barker77

I guess the other concern is that octopus and coop are the only ones available currently. Hmm tempting to chuck in a £25 minimum and see what this gets too , acknowledging the risk that I might not be able to then up this as it will probably sell out again. Hmm, now I’ve written that I guess it’s an all or nothing isn’t it …. 

Verdigris

The £25 is a non-returnable reservation, it won't buy a share, but if you don't reserve a share you can't invest. Hardly a life-changing sum if you decide not to proceed, though.

barker77

Did anyone do the £25 investment and then upgrade after or is it likely that if I don’t do the full investment that it will sell out leaving me unable to buy more? 

QrizB

This pdf relates to the first turbine:

https://static.rippleenergy.com/assets/GraigFatha/Ripple-Co-PilotWindProject-20210320.pdf

Page 9 has the economic model. It's based on selling into the grid at £58/MWh with operating costs of £20/MWh.

Last I heard they were due to start generating early in 2022. Is that still the plan? Selling into a £300/MWh market will help their early profitability no end

barker77 said:

Did anyone do the £25 investment and then upgrade after or is it likely that if I don’t do the full investment that it will sell out leaving me unable to buy more? 

From what I've read, if you put in £25 you'll get a three-day window ahead of the public offer in which you can increase your share. If you don't increase your share you can still buy £25 worth. If for some reason you decide you don't even wamt that much, they'll donate your £25 to their community fund.

Edit 1: And there might be a market in shares from people wanting to sell, or you can invest in a later phase of the scheme.

Edit 2: Page 28 of the pdf has projected returns over 20 and 25 years, presented as a matrix of electricity generated (P90, P75 and P50) vs market price (low, med, high).

Verdigris

As I understand it, if they are fully subscribed, at the time of offer, everybody will be able to buy one "average" share. If it is undersubscribed you can buy more than one share. The share is based on national average consumption, not your individual consumption.

barker77

Another noddy question sorry. I pay 40% tax. I assume I would do the same on this which might then make it not worth doing?