Could state pension be pushed back even further?

83705628

RobM99 said:

tcallaghan93 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Population size will ultimately decline. Covid may well accelerate the process. 

Where's that information come from?

Not difficult eh? The population can't increase for ever. 

Over the very very long-term no, but even low projections put the UK population growing to at least 2050 and the world's to 2050-2100 and then capping at maybe 11 billion. But that doesn't imply population decline and what does that have to do with the state pension?

TBC15

eastcorkram said:

I'll be 61 this year. SPA of 66. Do you think that will get pushed back?

Not a chance in hell ( I’m 61 too) think positive.

comeandgo

Off course it won't change that quick.  A political party's aim is to get to be in government, who would vote in the government who changes the state retirement age in three years time.  

83705628

comeandgo said:

Off course it won't change that quick.  A political party's aim is to get to be in government, who would vote in the government who changes the state retirement age in three years time.  

The British electorate, the last 4 elections.

hugheskevi

The next increase to State Pension age after it reaches 66 later this year is legislated to start in 2026.

The next General Election is due by 2024.

A Government would not want to schedule an increase to start shortly after a General Election, as the Opposition could buy a lot of votes by promising to cancel the increase. So any bringing forward would need to be to 2023 or earlier. Given the WASPI publicity, previous mentions of 10 years of notice and so forth, I think it would be very low on a policy options list.

The increase to age 68 was already expected to be brought forward following the previous review of State Pension age, but was not legislated for due to uncertainty over life expectancy increases (latest data had shown that increases were lower than expected). Although the data has continued to suggest increases are lower than expected, that will probably be ignored, or the Government will decide that in light of the fiscal circumstances it is necessary to have adults spend a lower proportion of their adult life above State Pension age. From an initial third of adult life spent in retirement, the Government decided it was now appropriate for 32% of an adult's life to be spent in retirement following the last review. That looks a spuriously precise figure, and may be the degree of freedom that is used to justify whatever answer is desired under the pretense of analysis.

The next State Pension age review is legislated for 2023, give 10 years notice from then takes you to 2033 which is 5 years after the State Pension age increases to 67. That looks an obvious target to increase to age 68 (or more).

Utter speculation of course

Thrugelmir

tcallaghan93 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Population size will ultimately decline. Covid may well accelerate the process. 

Where's that information come from?

In the developed world populations are forecast to decline. With wealth comes fewer offspring. 

crv1963

steampowered said:

I suspect an increase in the state pension age is very likely. How soon that will be is anyone's guess.

Average life expectancy is continuing to increase (https://news.stanford.edu/2018/11/06/lifespan-increasing-people-live-65/#:~:text=The%20researchers%20looked%20at%20birth,than%20their%20grandparents%2C%20on%20average.), so it is logical that retirement ages should also increase.

I agree with you steampowered! Me- 1963 so due SP 2030 but I fully expect that it will be pushed back a couple of years and one of my son speculated (without any particular source) that his generation now in their 20s will be expected to retire or get SP at age 75.

Ganga

Does anyone think that due to auto enrolment and everybody pushing private pensions that eventually the state pension could disappear for many?

eandjsmum

As I am a Lady of a certain age I have been watching the Back to 60 campaign and WASPI women. Since I started work I have had 3 retirement ages 60, 65 and 2 months and 66. the only one I received official notification of was the last one. One of the arguments from some of the WASPI and back to 60 campaign was that they were not give sufficient notice of change of retirement age.  That is when I found out that DWP had to give 10 years notification of change of retirement age. Like Silvertabby I am not sure if it is law or not,but at 61 you only have 5 years to go so I think it is unlikely that they will change your retirement age . I have work colleagues in their mid 50s who expect to retire at 68 . They may need to worry as I think that could slip back to 70. I also think that my children may not retire til mid 70s 

JoeCrystal

eandjsmum said:

That is when I found out that DWP had to give 10 years notification of change of retirement age

Not exactly. As far as I can see from skimming through reports, there is no legislative requirement for the Government to provide notice of changes to State Pension age within a specified period. However, the current Government will seek to provide a minimum of ten years' notice which is not set in stone as the governments come and goes.

Anyway, the next State Pension Age review will happen every six years so we should expect a report by May 2023 if they need to increase it beyond 68 to maintain up to 32% as the right proportion of adult life spent in receipt of State Pension.