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What new energy generation is coming online over the next 10 years?

I saw a really nice post somewhere that showed all the international interconnectors that are planned on the next few years.
We also know the major wind power additions that will be constructed soon.
What about other sources like home solar, or commercial solar?
Has anyone had a stab at guessing what the g/CO2/kWh el be in 10 years?
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  • CoastalwatchCoastalwatch Forumite
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    Afraid I can't help with that Chris, but from watching a recent webinar I understand the Grid will be capable of handling net zero by 2025. So encouraging progress there.
    As to what portion will still be CO2 related by then will depend upon a number of factors. Not the least of which is to how committed the government will be on encouraging more renewables and the publics acceptance on having solar and wind farms installed in their back yards!
    Not much help from me, but perhaps we've started the ball rolling!
    East coast, lat 51.97. 8.26kw SSE, 23° pitch + 0.59kw WSW vertical. Nissan Leaf plus Zappi charger and 2 x ASHP's. Still waiting for V2H and home storage to become available at sensible cost.
  • ASavvyBuyerASavvyBuyer Forumite
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    There appears to be a lot of Tidal Generation research taking place, which looks likely to come on-line within the next few years. Be good, as the generation pattern will be very predictable.
  • edited 30 June 2020 at 9:15AM
    ABrassABrass Forumite
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    edited 30 June 2020 at 9:15AM
    There appears to be a lot of Tidal Generation research taking place, which looks likely to come on-line within the next few years. Be good, as the generation pattern will be very predictable.
    The tech might mature enough to plan deployments in a few years, but it takes a few years to go from a technology demonstration to plans and then a few more from plans to building.

    It takes about 4 years to go from plans to pushing electrons for a large offshore wind farm. Land based is quicker, solar is faster still, but more expensive per kWh. Solaris already at the point where it may not need any subsidy to be viable in the UK. The challenge is space as the easiest way to drop costs is to go big. Very big.

    My bet is that in 10 years we'll be seeing natural Gas start to drop off the grid. By then offshore Wind should be cheaper than gas and large scale hydrogen cracking will allow long term (seasonal) storage and on-demand power.
  • DiggerUKDiggerUK Forumite
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    The reports that an expansion of nuclear power has moved up the agenda would be welcome in my opinion. The reliability of supply is the Achilles heel with wind and solar..._
  • NigeWickNigeWick Forumite
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    the publics acceptance on having solar and wind farms installed in their back yards!
    What's wrong with having solar on rooves instead of back yards?
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
  • CoastalwatchCoastalwatch Forumite
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    NigeWick said:
    the publics acceptance on having solar and wind farms installed in their back yards!
    What's wrong with having solar on rooves instead of back yards?
    Indeed Nige, every home should have an array...and battery storage to accompany it. Although I'm not sure at what point an array becomes a farm.
    Unfortunately retrofitting of arrays has it's issues and is yet to be made manditory on new.
    I'm no expert but one would imagine that Solar farms can be erected at far less cost per panel than those on rooves.
    I'd just imagined we'd require a far greater expanse of panels than could easily be adopted on exisiting properties with all the vagaries of aspect, pitch and shadowing issues that goes with them.
    But of course I could well be wrong.
    East coast, lat 51.97. 8.26kw SSE, 23° pitch + 0.59kw WSW vertical. Nissan Leaf plus Zappi charger and 2 x ASHP's. Still waiting for V2H and home storage to become available at sensible cost.
  • Martyn1981Martyn1981 Forumite
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    Hi CW, I think the cost of a solar farm is around 50-60% of the cost of roof mounted solar, which is a great start. But don't forget (like Mr C) that solar farms have an income more closely linked to wholesale prices, whereas roof mounted will be closer to retail leccy prices. Also, whilst the CAPEX of a PV farm is lower, they will have much higher annual OPEX (land costs, security, insurance etc) whereas roof mounted PV has minimal OPEX. Horses for courses.

    Then there's agrophotovoltaics, putting the PV, more thinly spaced, high above the crops. This is more expensive, but gets decent generation and crop production - about 80% of normal, but for both, so around 160%.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • joefizzjoefizz Forumite
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    ABrass said:
    It takes about 4 years to go from plans to pushing electrons for a large offshore wind farm. Land based is quicker, solar is faster still, but more expensive per kWh. Solaris already at the point where it may not need any subsidy to be viable in the UK. The challenge is space as the easiest way to drop costs is to go big. Very big.

    I was looking at buying woodland towards the end of last year and theres a dearth of it here in NI so what there is is ridiculously priced. So I started looking at partial woodland and land suitable for planting and noticed that anything over say 8 acres with a 3 phase supply already installed had the lines about possibly being suitable for wind turbine or solar installation... Dont know how long they have been saying that, only started looking at non-woodland larger sites late last year. Interesting.
    In looking on google maps at sites Im seeing a lot more field solar here in NI than I would have expected given our climate, but just how much is on the subsidy gravy train I dont know (but could guess ;-)).

    Going back to the OP, its also worth looking at what the studies were saying years ago to follow ABrass full post above. Its not just the design and implementation cycle but also what the studies were saying at the time all this gets decided/pushed.
    About 5 years ago the RSC published a paper on comparing hydrogen and batteries for grid storage and at the time came up with wind/hydrogen combination being the best EROI for overgeneration within the uk grid (as opposed to curtailment) but with solar its lithium ion batteries. Of course this then started the debate on the assumptions and calculations underneath EROI but it will have had an influence on decisions at the time (and subsequently). Certainly the conclusion that hydrogen/wind is a higher EROI than fossil fuels is hotly debated (ignoring shale).
  • JKenHJKenH Forumite
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    joefizz said:

    About 5 years ago the RSC published a paper on comparing hydrogen and batteries for grid storage and at the time came up with wind/hydrogen combination being the best EROI for overgeneration within the uk grid (as opposed to curtailment) but with solar its lithium ion batteries. Of course this then started the debate on the assumptions and calculations underneath EROI but it will have had an influence on decisions at the time (and subsequently). Certainly the conclusion that hydrogen/wind is a higher EROI than fossil fuels is hotly debated (ignoring shale).

    If you read my post on the green investment news thread you will see that John Laing after a decade in the renewables game are saying they are losing money on wind and solar and have put their assets up for sale. 



    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, Nissan Leaf (plus some ICEs:) )
  • NigeWickNigeWick Forumite
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    Coastalwatch said: But of course I could well be wrong.
    As could I, and, I am used to being wrong. HMGov did have a scheme about to run for solar panels on new builds but binned it about 4 years ago. I have to presume that the fossil fuel and nuclear lobbies coughed up enough to get their way. 

    I see there are trials of new builds with superb insulation & renewables that cost no more to build that traditional homes. I am hoping that Tony Seba is correct and that it won't be many years before solar & battery will be cheaper than the transmission of electricity on the grid. I am fortunate in that I can spend my inheritance and be an early adopter.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
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