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Is the price of home batteries going to fall soon?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but some of the best prices/kWh at the moment for home batteries are Tesla Powerwalls at about £8500 for 14kWh. Obviously that's quite high and will take a very long time to pay for itself.
On the other hand, there's lots of batteries kicking around for not much money. For example, this Nissan Leaf
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/202006099941263?price-from=500&radius=1500&advertising-location=at_cars&price-to=6000&postcode=ng15ga&model=LEAF&onesearchad=New&onesearchad=Nearly%20New&onesearchad=Used&make=NISSAN&sort=price-asc&page=1
is only £5,300 and has a 24kWh battery (probably a bit degraded).
If someone could break it up, as well as selling off some of the non-battery bits, that would leave plenty of battery available for a low cost.
Between sources like this, and LFP batteries from China for around $100/kWh, surely we're on the age of seeing much cheaper batteries for home storage?

Replies

  • SolarchaserSolarchaser Forumite
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    Same arguments have been around for a while tbh.
    If anything, they are getting a bit more expensive 
    West central Scotland
    4kw sse since 2014 and 6.6kw wsw / ene split since 2019
    24kwh leaf and Lux 3600 with 17kwh useable storage
  • edited 20 June 2020 at 7:24AM
    ABrassABrass Forumite
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    edited 20 June 2020 at 7:24AM
    The price won't drop much in the near future. Even at current prices the home storage people are selling everything they can make. That means theres no drive to reduce price much to increase sales.

    Also battery prices are much higher than the cell cost. The cells in a power wall probably cost less than $2100 of that £8500. Even if it dropped in cost by half for the cells and that cost was passed on it wouldn't make a huge difference to the price of the unit.

    Perhaps if some utterly huge Lithium Iron plants are built to pump out terra watts of cells, but not on the next few years.
  • michaelsmichaels Forumite
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    Get the second hand leaf and get on a V2g/v2h trial - I think the OVO one is now closed for new signups but Western Power Networks DNO are running one if you are in their service area.
    I think....
  • JKenHJKenH Forumite
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    At the moment it costs in the region of £8400 for a 13 kWh Tesla Powerwall, that’s £646/kWh. You can buy a  brand new 40 kWh Nissan Leaf for around £23000, that’s £575/kWh and you get a free car thrown in. 

    I had read somewhere that Tesla are getting close to the magic £100/kwh battery cost so why is the Powerwall so expensive?
    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, Nissan Leaf (plus some ICEs:) )
  • JKenHJKenH Forumite
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    Mickey666 said:
    Perhaps Tesla are the Apple of the battery marketplace ;)
    Perhaps. They do have that reputation that their stuff just works. If I was going to spend say £8k on a battery I would probably go for the Powerwall in preference to any other manufacturer. I can see why some of the other battery systems discussed on here appeal to those who like to mess around with stuff to save a few bob but I am not very tech savvy so that’s not an option for me. It is a premium product that attracts a premium price. Batteries are too expensive for me at the moment though.

    I had hoped that V2G would prove a viable alternative to the Powerwall for Nissan Leaf owners like myself but the OVO trial doesn’t inspire confidence. I think Nissan have missed a trick not rolling V2G out here as they have done in Japan. Tesla are looking to do V2G shortly and I bet when that is rolled out it will just work straight out the box. 


    Northern Lincolnshire. 7.8 kWp system, (4.2 kw west facing panels , 3.6 kw east facing), Solis inverters, Solar IBoost water heater, Mitsubishi SRK35ZS-S and SRK20ZS-S Wall Mounted Inverter Heat Pumps, Nissan Leaf (plus some ICEs:) )
  • joefizzjoefizz Forumite
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    I said on the battery thread last year that prices were probably as low as they were ever going to be and invited people to explain to me why they thought they would fall, mostly all the same reasons mentioned above. And yet here we are...
    The falling cost of applied tech (applied, not direct, i.e. tesla, apple etc) is a myth. If tech 'improves' by 4x and yet they only charge 2x official figures have that as a cost reduction....
    As JKenH says above, if you arent tech savvy then you will pay a premium and that is what you are paying for, someone else to do all the tech stuff for you, the applied tech, not the physical cost of the tech itself. The applied tech still has inflation, wages, tax (well maybe not apple or tesla), subsidies etc etc applied so the physical makes up a lot less of the final percentage.
    Tracking the cost of the likes of the pylontech is a good reflection of the actual costs and any developing trade war/brexit etc will be priced in as time progresses.
  • NigeWickNigeWick Forumite
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    JKenH said:
     If I was going to spend say £8k on a battery I would probably go for the Powerwall in preference to any other manufacturer. I
    I've got one and am well pleased with it at £7,000 fitted along with adding two 300W panels to my solar system. VAT was 20% for just the battery and 5% as part of a system. One thing I didn't know until a storm was due is that it has a "Storm Watch" facility that fills the battery if one is due so that we can be cut off from the grid with about a day's supply of electricity.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
  • michaelsmichaels Forumite
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    JKenH said:
    Mickey666 said:
    Perhaps Tesla are the Apple of the battery marketplace ;)
    Perhaps. They do have that reputation that their stuff just works. If I was going to spend say £8k on a battery I would probably go for the Powerwall in preference to any other manufacturer. I can see why some of the other battery systems discussed on here appeal to those who like to mess around with stuff to save a few bob but I am not very tech savvy so that’s not an option for me. It is a premium product that attracts a premium price. Batteries are too expensive for me at the moment though.

    I had hoped that V2G would prove a viable alternative to the Powerwall for Nissan Leaf owners like myself but the OVO trial doesn’t inspire confidence. I think Nissan have missed a trick not rolling V2G out here as they have done in Japan. Tesla are looking to do V2G shortly and I bet when that is rolled out it will just work straight out the box. 


    I think OVO works fine for the majority, not surprisingly it is those with problems who post on the facebook group (he says having had his install just over a week ago and no problems so far :) )
    At the end of the trial you get to keep the charger, if it can be integrated with the Octopus export tariff I suspect electric may be something I make money on rather than pay for.
    I think....
  • Martyn1981Martyn1981 Forumite
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    michaels said:
    JKenH said:
    Mickey666 said:
    Perhaps Tesla are the Apple of the battery marketplace ;)
    Perhaps. They do have that reputation that their stuff just works. If I was going to spend say £8k on a battery I would probably go for the Powerwall in preference to any other manufacturer. I can see why some of the other battery systems discussed on here appeal to those who like to mess around with stuff to save a few bob but I am not very tech savvy so that’s not an option for me. It is a premium product that attracts a premium price. Batteries are too expensive for me at the moment though.

    I had hoped that V2G would prove a viable alternative to the Powerwall for Nissan Leaf owners like myself but the OVO trial doesn’t inspire confidence. I think Nissan have missed a trick not rolling V2G out here as they have done in Japan. Tesla are looking to do V2G shortly and I bet when that is rolled out it will just work straight out the box. 


    I think OVO works fine for the majority, not surprisingly it is those with problems who post on the facebook group (he says having had his install just over a week ago and no problems so far :) )
    At the end of the trial you get to keep the charger, if it can be integrated with the Octopus export tariff I suspect electric may be something I make money on rather than pay for.
    Have you budgeted for the purchase cost at the end of the trial? Is it 1p or £1?
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
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