Re value ??

FrugalCat

OldMusicGuy said:

Crashy_Time said:

Can you give us a post code was that so that we can monitor your prediction?

That would be pointless because if you read what I posted, you will see that I said it will be patchy. Some areas could have a lack of supply, others may have a glut. The housing market is complex and varied. I've moved from the south east to the south west, and those markets are quite different. I think there will definitely be some bargains to be had in the short term but I don't see an overall big drop coming. Already the number of houses on the market has diminished and there's hardly any new properties coming on the market in the areas of the south west I have been monitoring. We would struggle to find something suitable if we were looking now. 

Everyone should struggle now, you're meant to stay at home - the market has been effectively frozen by the government.
Once it re-opens, if the economic data is anything to go by - and drawing comparisons between 2008 and 2020 levels of personal unsecured debt - a similar outcome might be expected. The interesting bit is whether housing recovers over the following years like it did before on the back of another debt pyramid, or if the lesson has been learnt this time?

If so, for the sake of all that have bough in the past years, you would hope for this to be an inflationary recession - which would naturally bring prices back up eventually. If it's deflationary, mortgage backed house buyers of the past years may not be so happy.

Crashy_Time

OldMusicGuy said:

Crashy_Time said:

Can you give us a post code was that so that we can monitor your prediction?

That would be pointless because if you read what I posted, you will see that I said it will be patchy. Some areas could have a lack of supply, others may have a glut. The housing market is complex and varied. I've moved from the south east to the south west, and those markets are quite different. I think there will definitely be some bargains to be had in the short term but I don't see an overall big drop coming. Already the number of houses on the market has diminished and there's hardly any new properties coming on the market in the areas of the south west I have been monitoring. We would struggle to find something suitable if we were looking now. 

You gave a "real world" example though and a postcode/area allows people to investigate those numbers for themselves? 

OldMusicGuy

Crashy_Time said:

You gave a "real world" example though and a postcode/area allows people to investigate those numbers for themselves? 

I think you are misunderstanding. The real world examples are to show what I experienced to help answer the OPs question. You can't check the numbers yourself unless I give you the full house details. Unless you think I am lying, I can't see why you are asking.

In one situation, we made an offer in early March 6% below asking on a property that we really liked. It had been on the market for over a year and was a new build (built by a local consortium rather than a big developer). As cash buyers, we thought that was a pretty good offer. It was rejected despite me playing the "well if you think this property will be easy to sell with coronavirus looming" card. The EA said there was a potential buyer willing to pay close to asking. We didn't up our offer, and within a couple of days the property changed to SSTC and is still showing as SSTC. They may not have paid full asking but clearly offered more than us. Obviously that could fall through but it looks like it's going ahead.

So that was an example of playing hardball and using the "well we're heading for tough times" card that didn't work. We lost that house so had to rush around to find another, and in the next few days we looked at a lot of properties online and quite a few in the flesh. We found a new build development that suited our needs and made an offer on March 12th (prior to lockdown). We were able to negotiate a deal that we were happy with, but the developer wasn't ready to panic sell. We looked at another new build development in the same town and I know on that development we could probably have got a better deal, because the houses and development wasn't quite as "premium" as the one we chose and they had more completed houses to sell. The sales agent was definitely more keen to negotiate on this development than the one we chose.

Both properties are in small towns in Somerset. But the point of my real world examples was to show the OP that there can be room for negotiation but not everyone is ready to drop their trousers. In the real world, we don't know how prices are going to go, and how desperate developers/sellers may be to drop prices. So the OP needs to weigh up the risk of losing the house they have secured now against the possibility that prices may fall. A lot will depend on the desirability and location of the property itself. 

MobileSaver

FrugalCat said:

mortgage backed house buyers of the past years may not be so happy.

On the contrary, I suspect the vast majority of people who bought a house as a home in past years will be much happier than those still choosing to rent, regardless of what happens to house prices.

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

FrugalCat said:

mortgage backed house buyers of the past years may not be so happy.

On the contrary, I suspect the vast majority of people who bought a house as a home in past years will be much happier than those still choosing to rent, regardless of what happens to house prices.

Wildly generalised statement that is based on very little except your own VI perhaps? I seriously doubt that anyone who bought recently or is hoping to sell is going to be happy about what is unfolding.

Crashy_Time

OldMusicGuy said:

Crashy_Time said:

You gave a "real world" example though and a postcode/area allows people to investigate those numbers for themselves? 

I think you are misunderstanding. The real world examples are to show what I experienced to help answer the OPs question. You can't check the numbers yourself unless I give you the full house details. Unless you think I am lying, I can't see why you are asking.

In one situation, we made an offer in early March 6% below asking on a property that we really liked. It had been on the market for over a year and was a new build (built by a local consortium rather than a big developer). As cash buyers, we thought that was a pretty good offer. It was rejected despite me playing the "well if you think this property will be easy to sell with coronavirus looming" card. The EA said there was a potential buyer willing to pay close to asking. We didn't up our offer, and within a couple of days the property changed to SSTC and is still showing as SSTC. They may not have paid full asking but clearly offered more than us. Obviously that could fall through but it looks like it's going ahead.

So that was an example of playing hardball and using the "well we're heading for tough times" card that didn't work. We lost that house so had to rush around to find another, and in the next few days we looked at a lot of properties online and quite a few in the flesh. We found a new build development that suited our needs and made an offer on March 12th (prior to lockdown). We were able to negotiate a deal that we were happy with, but the developer wasn't ready to panic sell. We looked at another new build development in the same town and I know on that development we could probably have got a better deal, because the houses and development wasn't quite as "premium" as the one we chose and they had more completed houses to sell. The sales agent was definitely more keen to negotiate on this development than the one we chose.

Both properties are in small towns in Somerset. But the point of my real world examples was to show the OP that there can be room for negotiation but not everyone is ready to drop their trousers. In the real world, we don't know how prices are going to go, and how desperate developers/sellers may be to drop prices. So the OP needs to weigh up the risk of losing the house they have secured now against the possibility that prices may fall. A lot will depend on the desirability and location of the property itself. 

If, and it looks increasingly likely that we can`t avoid it, we are actually in tough times, and not maybe/potentially heading for them I doubt that the developer/agent will be so resilient to holding out for their price level.

[Deleted User]

Crashy_Time said:i

OldMusicGuy said:

Crashy_Time said:

You gave a "real world" example though and a postcode/area allows people to investigate those numbers for themselves? 

I think you are misunderstanding. The real world examples are to show what I experienced to help answer the OPs question. You can't check the numbers yourself unless I give you the full house details. Unless you think I am lying, I can't see why you are asking.

In one situation, we made an offer in early March 6% below asking on a property that we really liked. It had been on the market for over a year and was a new build (built by a local consortium rather than a big developer). As cash buyers, we thought that was a pretty good offer. It was rejected despite me playing the "well if you think this property will be easy to sell with coronavirus looming" card. The EA said there was a potential buyer willing to pay close to asking. We didn't up our offer, and within a couple of days the property changed to SSTC and is still showing as SSTC. They may not have paid full asking but clearly offered more than us. Obviously that could fall through but it looks like it's going ahead.

So that was an example of playing hardball and using the "well we're heading for tough times" card that didn't work. We lost that house so had to rush around to find another, and in the next few days we looked at a lot of properties online and quite a few in the flesh. We found a new build development that suited our needs and made an offer on March 12th (prior to lockdown). We were able to negotiate a deal that we were happy with, but the developer wasn't ready to panic sell. We looked at another new build development in the same town and I know on that development we could probably have got a better deal, because the houses and development wasn't quite as "premium" as the one we chose and they had more completed houses to sell. The sales agent was definitely more keen to negotiate on this development than the one we chose.

Both properties are in small towns in Somerset. But the point of my real world examples was to show the OP that there can be room for negotiation but not everyone is ready to drop their trousers. In the real world, we don't know how prices are going to go, and how desperate developers/sellers may be to drop prices. So the OP needs to weigh up the risk of losing the house they have secured now against the possibility that prices may fall. A lot will depend on the desirability and location of the property itself. 

If, and it looks increasingly likely that we can`t avoid it, we are actually in tough times, and not maybe/potentially heading for them I doubt that the developer/agent will be so resilient to holding out for their price level.

Rarely Crashy I agree with you on this point ! Maybe wishful thinking as I am in the market for a BTL bargain 

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

FrugalCat said:

mortgage backed house buyers of the past years may not be so happy.

On the contrary, I suspect the vast majority of people who bought a house as a home in past years will be much happier than those still choosing to rent, regardless of what happens to house prices.

Wildly generalised statement that is based on very little except your own VI perhaps?

Er, yes, it is wildly generalised, that's what "the vast majority" means in my book. There will of course be some people for who buying turns out to be a mistake but that's the case whichever way the economy and house prices go. However most people will probably find it is the best thing they ever did for a whole multitude of reasons, not all of which are necessarily financial.

What exactly do you think my "VI" is considering I have retired to my mortgage-free dream home, fully expect to leave here in a coffin two or three decades down the road and have no children to leave an inheritance to?

FrugalCat

MobileSaver said:

FrugalCat said:

mortgage backed house buyers of the past years may not be so happy.

On the contrary, I suspect the vast majority of people who bought a house as a home in past years will be much happier than those still choosing to rent, regardless of what happens to house prices.

If you mean people owning their house, perhaps. People who have large mortgages would feel hard done by in deflation (which would be the vast majority, talking about house buyers).

MobileSaver

FrugalCat said:

MobileSaver said:

FrugalCat said:

mortgage backed house buyers of the past years may not be so happy.

On the contrary, I suspect the vast majority of people who bought a house as a home in past years will be much happier than those still choosing to rent, regardless of what happens to house prices.

  People who have large mortgages would feel hard done by in deflation (which would be the vast majority, talking about house buyers).

Why would someone who has been living in their own home for say the last three years (paying their own mortgage rather than their landlord's) feel hard done by, whichever way house prices move in the future?