Have we seen the bottom of the stock market?

stuart746

Thrugelmir said:

stuart746 said:

Dead cat bounces (brief market rallies) are a feature of bear markets, in the 2008 crisis markets did not bottom out until the following March.. but as others have said, no one knows when the bottom will come

Many companies were oversold in the 2008 crash. A very different scenario to today. Where the pain isn't primarily confined to financial and construction companies. Spread far wider and broader. 

Yes, that is very true, point well made, though arguably few sectors exist in a vacuum

carpy

I know no-one knows but just wondered what people 'think' might happen....that's all
I just find it interesting to read peoples different opinions

BananaRepublic

carpy said:

I know no-one knows but just wondered what people 'think' might happen....that's all
I just find it interesting to read peoples different opinions

 A relatively benign scenario has the economy coming out of stasis and recovering nicely, with the weakest companies falling by the wayside. But I don’t see how most leisure activity companies can survive. Cinemas, ice rinks, bowling alleys, gyms, tour operators, paint ball parks and similar will surely fail. I’m sure I read recently that Amazon are hiring 75,000 new staff, so doubtless some of this will be a shift in the economy rather than a simple collapse.

stuart746

carpy said:

I know no-one knows but just wondered what people 'think' might happen....that's all
I just find it interesting to read peoples different opinions

In time I’m sure there will be a more decisive rebound in the markets but this is likely to be pre-empted by good news on the medical/pharma front (vaccines, treatments, etc), maybe 12-18 months (possibly faster). But with a 17 million jobless jump in the US surely growth will be slow as companies increase debt and slow investment and expansion.

Thrugelmir

carpy said:

I know no-one knows but just wondered what people 'think' might happen....that's all
I just find it interesting to read peoples different opinions

The deeper you dig. The more you realise you don't know.   

Albermarle

Another issue is that governments will have to try and improve their finances, after the hole this has blown into them.
Higher taxes /austerity normally suppresses long term growth . So after markets settle , the conditions would not be great for a sustained bull market ( in theory )

Sailtheworld

I made one of the largest single share purchases of my life today (a full year's pension contributions into VRWL) so I'm 100% sure we haven't reached the bottom yet.

Alistair31

Sailtheworld said:

I made one of the largest single share purchases of my life today (a full year's pension contributions into VRWL) so I'm 100% sure we haven't reached the bottom yet.

Brave. I wish you well.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

I made one of the largest single share purchases of my life today (a full year's pension contributions into VRWL) so I'm 100% sure we haven't reached the bottom yet.

Bold move to go all in. 

Albermarle

Sailtheworld said:

I made one of the largest single share purchases of my life today (a full year's pension contributions into VRWL) so I'm 100% sure we haven't reached the bottom yet.

I suppose this is living proof of someone who believes in 'time in the market ' and no wimpy drip feeding