How sure are you there will be a crash?

leftism

i know you can never predict the property market, but I’ve read more certainty about a drop in house prices than I’ve ever read on here before. 

Does anyone think the market won’t drop? 

We’re FTBs, offer accepted, mortgage approved, survey done, small chain. But we’ve now got real employment uncertainty and wondering if we carried on renting for a few months more, we might get more for our money. Don’t know what to do :-/

Linton

The market will only drop when there are not enough people able to pay current prices for the houses available.  In that situation how confident are you that you will be one of the people whose ability to pay for a house has  reduced less than the majority?

Darkslider

I think house prices are going to kept reasonably high (perhaps artificially) by the unprecedented government intervention. Borrowing will be the cheapest it's ever been, so while potential purchasers in the hospitality sector might be removed from the market there'll be enough buyers to prop prices up. I think we'll see stagnation, perhaps a slight dip in prices over the next 12-18 months, but I doubt things will be as bad as the global financial crisis of 2008 despite all the comparisons.

That's only my prediction however, anyone that tells you they know for certain what way it's going to go can be disregarded as unless you've access to a crystal ball, nobody knows how hard this will hit the housing market, how effective the governments reaction will be or how long the economy will take to recover.

diggingdude

In my area I'm not sure they would drop alot. They haven't really recovered from 2008 (they were deffo overpriced back then), if prices were to crash I reckon people like myself just wouldn't sell unless urgent. 

Thrugelmir

Markets simply reflect supply and demand. There's always be people selling due to death, divorce and financial distress. If demand slackens , then prices may drift lower. That's the nature of recessions. 
Having said that. Many houses change hands infrequently. People will pay a premium if a particular property comes to market. Location matters. Work, school, family may influence decisions. 
Is your employment uncertainty a general concern or specific? Is this your ideal dream first home?
Rent is ultimately dead money. Remember part of each mortgage payment you make reduces the debt owed. In 25 years time this crisis will seem a distant memory. Consider matters in the longer rather than the short term. 

jimmyjammy001

Might be a 20% drop...... 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-8138747/House-prices-collapse-20-amid-coronavirus-crisis.html

Davesnave

leftism said:

But we’ve now got real employment uncertainty....

That's the important part of your post. The second important thing you've not mentioned, but implied, is how good the property you hoped to buy would be if you had to stay in it for the longer term; say 7+ years.

What people think here is largely irrelevant, since everyone, including the usual pundits, is guesstimating in a novel situation.

prowla

Housing relies on buyers; if people are out of work or are worries that they will be in a few months time, then there will be less buyers.

leftism

These are all very helpful answers thank you! The house we’re buying is a real stretch and has the potential to be our dream home. It’s big and top location. It just needs loads of work. And we’re  probably not going to be able to afford to do it for a while. 

If prices drop 5% or something it’s fine, it’s money we’d have spent on rent anyway. I’m just going to kick myself if, a year from now, everything is 20% lower and we could’ve got our dream forever home that doesn’t need any work. 

But thats the gamble I need to decide if I should take isn’t it!

peppapig14

leftism said:

These are all very helpful answers thank you! The house we’re buying is a real stretch and has the potential to be our dream home. It’s big and top location. It just needs loads of work. And we’re  probably not going to be able to afford to do it for a while. 

If prices drop 5% or something it’s fine, it’s money we’d have spent on rent anyway. I’m just going to kick myself if, a year from now, everything is 20% lower and we could’ve got our dream forever home that doesn’t need any work. 

But thats the gamble I need to decide if I should take isn’t it!

we are in same position, due to exchange contracts, had money put by for works needed ( windows and heating ) however that money will now need to be a safety net if we do lose our jobs. the money we are saving in rent will be approx £200 per month so in a year we could start doing the works- raatger be in our own place then potntial of landlord selling and having to rent somewhere else

[Deleted User]

London could do with a crash!    Poky little leasehold flats carved out of Victorian houses in places like Brockley, that hardly even work as living spaces, were £500-600k last month, up from £250k ten years ago.