Gold Silver ratio - time to buy silver

bowlhead99

EdGasketTheSecond said:

RCP - RIT Capital Partners

From their half-year report: "Useful contribution from gold-related investments"

Good luck with it; their price held up initially but has dropped off a cliff lately. I wonder how good they are at wealth preservation. Always interested in what other people are investing in.

Yes, for calendar 2019 the main driver of returns in their 'real assets' category was gold with both their direct gold positions (and some derivatives)  and gold mining funds performing well, buoyed by a 19% price rise in the year. They see gold as a decent diversifier against increased macro volatility that might come from lower growth or higher inflation.

But gold is a pretty small part of their portfolio - I wouldn't expect to see them at any point say that 70% gold and silver is the core of a great portfolio

I expect will they have been hammered on the credit and absolute return part of their portfolio (20-25% at year end) and they had about 70% overall in public and private equities at year end, so it is not going to hold up well in this sort of downturn, despite an approach that's more cautious than some others. 

While they can be cautious in their portfolio approach they use a variety of interesting strategies and it doesn't have the same explicit 'wealth preservation' remit as something like PNL (my largest holding, and down about 10% from peak). RCP has greater long term growth prospects, while at end of Feb PNL was only around 40% equity, 31% IL bonds, 9% gold and 21% cash.

When people mention RCP as being in a wealth preservation portfolio I sometimes comment that it should only be on the outskirts of one, as they have a big bag of diversification but it is quite a different mix from something like PNL, Capital Gearing, Troy Trojan etc

EdGasketTheSecond

Can I ask what tempted you to buy now? I realise they are about 40% below peak but we are only at the start of this crisis and they could lose another 40% yet. I am avoiding any sort of fund for the forseable future; just making the odd investment in individual stock that is not so affected by the virus or even helped by market volatility such as IGG.

bowlhead99

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Can I ask what tempted you to buy now? I realise they are about 40% below peak but we are only at the start of this crisis and they could lose another 40% yet. I am avoiding any sort of fund for the forseable future; just making the odd investment in individual stock that is not so affected by the virus or even helped by market volatility such as IGG.

I'd exited a number of holdings before markets had fallen as far as current levels. The -35% to -55% level will likely be seen with hindsight as a reasonable entry point for things that aren't going to go bust. Some things will get cheaper of course before they get better, but nobody expects to catch the bottom. 

I had a limit order for £12.50 but seeing it reasonably close to that I bought a couple of hundred and reset the limit order lower. As it turns out I would have saved some money by waiting a half hour, but you never know if that will work out.

Some of the fall will be erosion of premium rather than pure NAV decline (NAV is not published daily as a large proportion is private assets). Speaking of private equity I also added some Harbourvest (HVPE) at around £9 today having been a seller at £15/16/17 in recent weeks. Though some of their holdings will be quite 'precarious', £5-10 range is better than the £15-20 range it was getting up to when the US markets were frothier, so I am half back in there. I will likely buy more if it does lose another 30%, depending what the industry is saying over the coming weeks.

EdGasketTheSecond

Thanks, best of luck.

EdGasketTheSecond

Silver up almost 70% since my original post on 18th March. Looks like a melt-up for gold and silver. No other safe haven from inflation with further QE being announced in Europe (EU 750Bn) and above inflation pay rises in the UK for public sector workers (3.1%).

MaxiRobriguez

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Silver up almost 70% since my original post on 18th March. Looks like a melt-up for gold and silver. No other safe haven from inflation with further QE being announced in Europe (EU 750Bn) and above inflation pay rises in the UK for public sector workers (3.1%).

Quite a few investment opportunities are on similar trajectories in the same timeframe.... 

EdGasketTheSecond

MaxiRobriguez said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Silver up almost 70% since my original post on 18th March. Looks like a melt-up for gold and silver. No other safe haven from inflation with further QE being announced in Europe (EU 750Bn) and above inflation pay rises in the UK for public sector workers (3.1%).

Quite a few investment opportunities are on similar trajectories in the same timeframe.... 

But were they flagged up on this forum in advance?

83705628

I got some tulips for sale too y'all.

grumiofoundation

tcallaghan93 said:

I got some tulips for sale too y'all.

Please start your own thread to discuss investing in tulips, since you appear to be obsessed, rather than spamming other discussions. 

83705628

grumiofoundation said:

tcallaghan93 said:

I got some tulips for sale too y'all.

Please start your own thread to discuss investing in tulips, since you appear to be obsessed, rather than spamming other discussions. 

/
🤣 This is a thread in which people are seriously analysing the price of 2 metals, and somehow I'm the obsessed one 😂