Bad time to buy a house?

RelievedSheff

Crashy_Time said:

captaindough said:

need_an_answer said:

Property prices rise and fall...if you've purchased a property you should ideally expect to be thinking of it as not a short term investment....so what if its worth £5k less in a few months time,you should be looking at it as somewhere to live in the early stages.
If your mindset is to track the value of it monthly then don't buy its the wrong type of purchase if you continually want to keep tabs on its value.

What sort of timeframe do you hope to keep the property for?

Thanks for your reply. I would be looking to sell within 2 to 3 years. My fear would be, as I said, purchasing for 200K, market crash, value of said property plummets due to current crisis, fast forward to 2022 when I want to sell and the property is worth considerably less...not 5k less.

Certainly wait until the virus stabilises/disappears, the economic damage is already done though so no need to worry about house prices going anywhere from here, choice between a nice discount soon and a big loss in a couple of years if you buy now is what you are looking at I think.

Given your exceptionally poor form at predicting the property market in the past the OP is probably best doing the exact opposite of what you advise!!

Crashy_Time

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

captaindough said:

need_an_answer said:

Property prices rise and fall...if you've purchased a property you should ideally expect to be thinking of it as not a short term investment....so what if its worth £5k less in a few months time,you should be looking at it as somewhere to live in the early stages.
If your mindset is to track the value of it monthly then don't buy its the wrong type of purchase if you continually want to keep tabs on its value.

What sort of timeframe do you hope to keep the property for?

Thanks for your reply. I would be looking to sell within 2 to 3 years. My fear would be, as I said, purchasing for 200K, market crash, value of said property plummets due to current crisis, fast forward to 2022 when I want to sell and the property is worth considerably less...not 5k less.

Certainly wait until the virus stabilises/disappears, the economic damage is already done though so no need to worry about house prices going anywhere from here, choice between a nice discount soon and a big loss in a couple of years if you buy now is what you are looking at I think.

Given your exceptionally poor form at predicting the property market in the past the OP is probably best doing the exact opposite of what you advise!!

My prediction has always been that the property market is a debt fuelled bubble that is not built to withstand economic/credit market type shocks. What are your predictions and how should the OP navigate the economic/medical emergency that we have now? I would imagine that many potential house purchasers are shelving their plans right about now but you obviously disagree.

PasturesNew

In my unqualified opinion, prices will drop... but fewer houses will be for sale.  You need to live somewhere, it's better to have a place you like at today's price, than throw it away and gamble that something equally as nice will turn up once this is all over ... because by then you might find there's nothing you like as much.  Houses might be cheaper, but there's no benefit to you if you don't like what's for sale... 

Getting_greyer

I get cheap rent with my job.  I've moved 5-6 times in 10 years. I actually enjoy it but now my kids are getting older I want to stay put for their schooling.  My options are private rent or buy.  The worst thing that can happen is I will be repossessed if after my initial rate I'm in negative equity or interest rates sky rocket.  Meh. It's all one anyway we could potentially be living the post apocalyptic lifestyle soon or whatever.

Trillionski

Im in the same position as you. I have no choice but to wait it out a few months anyway but I reckon towards summer we will have a better idea.

If it's a virus that we can contain for a month or so and we get back to normal service then it won't affect much.
If it cripples the country in many ways which I am not qualified to talk about then I don't see why prices could not start to drop.

I doubt we will see anything like the recession of the past decade but if we got a drop of 5-10% I'd be happy.

RelievedSheff

Crashy_Time said:

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

captaindough said:

need_an_answer said:

Property prices rise and fall...if you've purchased a property you should ideally expect to be thinking of it as not a short term investment....so what if its worth £5k less in a few months time,you should be looking at it as somewhere to live in the early stages.
If your mindset is to track the value of it monthly then don't buy its the wrong type of purchase if you continually want to keep tabs on its value.

What sort of timeframe do you hope to keep the property for?

Thanks for your reply. I would be looking to sell within 2 to 3 years. My fear would be, as I said, purchasing for 200K, market crash, value of said property plummets due to current crisis, fast forward to 2022 when I want to sell and the property is worth considerably less...not 5k less.

Certainly wait until the virus stabilises/disappears, the economic damage is already done though so no need to worry about house prices going anywhere from here, choice between a nice discount soon and a big loss in a couple of years if you buy now is what you are looking at I think.

Given your exceptionally poor form at predicting the property market in the past the OP is probably best doing the exact opposite of what you advise!!

My prediction has always been that the property market is a debt fuelled bubble that is not built to withstand economic/credit market type shocks. What are your predictions and how should the OP navigate the economic/medical emergency that we have now? I would imagine that many potential house purchasers are shelving their plans right about now but you obviously disagree.

My prediction is that house prices will stagnate as buyers hold out for some clarification of what will happen with this glorified common cold and potential sellers stay put. There may be some price drops in some areas and some small gains in others but overall a flat year for house prices. 

I certainly cant see a drop such as that in 2007/2008 as borrowing is currently so cheap. 

The stock markets and currency rates will recover as more information is found out about this virus. If anything now is a great time to invest some spare cash if you have it.

Davesnave

RelievedSheff said:

Crashy_Time said:

captaindough said:

need_an_answer said:

Property prices rise and fall...if you've purchased a property you should ideally expect to be thinking of it as not a short term investment....so what if its worth £5k less in a few months time,you should be looking at it as somewhere to live in the early stages.
If your mindset is to track the value of it monthly then don't buy its the wrong type of purchase if you continually want to keep tabs on its value.

What sort of timeframe do you hope to keep the property for?

Thanks for your reply. I would be looking to sell within 2 to 3 years. My fear would be, as I said, purchasing for 200K, market crash, value of said property plummets due to current crisis, fast forward to 2022 when I want to sell and the property is worth considerably less...not 5k less.

Certainly wait until the virus stabilises/disappears, the economic damage is already done though so no need to worry about house prices going anywhere from here, choice between a nice discount soon and a big loss in a couple of years if you buy now is what you are looking at I think.

Given your exceptionally poor form at predicting the property market in the past the OP is probably best doing the exact opposite of what you advise!!

Even a stopped clock is right sometimes. Now looks like one of those occasions to me. We have an event, which is not a black swan, like 2008, but more of a grey one, and it's going to have a pretty significant impact. All bets regarding the short term future are off.

This is not "a glorified common cold," but I agree there will be good opportunities to invest; just not yet

jimbog

In view of your worries and the length of time you intend to have the property it would be very unwise to proceed any further 

itchyfeet1000

The last serious house price drop we had was from around 1990 to 1995 and depending where you were they lost around 25-40% of their value, I remember this as I had just bought in 1989, sold at a 30% loss in 1994 and picked up a bargain in 1995 which I still live in.
The price did not fall overnight but houses simply stopped selling and when people got to a stage where they were either forced to or could afford to sell at a lower price did so. If you think that you will be selling again in a couple of years I would hold back for the time being. 

Davesnave

itchyfeet1000 said:

The last serious house price drop we had was from around 1990 to 1995 and depending where you were they lost around 25-40% of their value...

What happened to 2008/9?

Maybe the early 90s thing was more regional. I remember prices where I was stagnating in the early 90s, but not falling a great deal. Because of that, when the Crash of 2008 began, I wasn't too worried, but we were then hit with falls overall of around 15-20%. Being a buoyant place, things had returned to normal by 2013, whereas in less favoured locations the recovery has still barely happened.