Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

DiamondLil

masonic said:

Regarding dripfeeding, I'll just leave this here: https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5827619/just-used-my-full-isa-allowance

You guys crack me up.... Very many thanks for the link; one of the funniest I've ever read.

ColdIron

It's certainly a post that just keeps on giving But how time flies

BananaRepublic

bartelbe said:

Bravepants said:

masonic said:

You could wait for the next dip, then when it comes along, hold off as markets will surely go lower and you shouldn't try to catch a falling knife, and then when markets start to turn around you could hold off as it is probably a dead cat bounce and there will be better buying opportunities in the future. Repeat until markets are at an all-time high, which of course is the worst possible time to buy, and so wait for the next downturn and work your way through the same steps.

Hehe! Spot on! This paragraph should be a sticky at the top of the Savings and Investments forum, perhaps it could form a warning for the unsuspecting souls who are tempted to step into the forum and be subjected to such banal and contrary discussion!

Or perhaps there should be a separate forum for traders.

I have to admit I ignore the advice about drip feeding and time the market. The moment there is a dip, I invest, instead of putting money in steadily. I am investing long term and tend to pick tracker funds and safe stocks. But if I can buy them for less when the market is in decline, why not?

If you try to do that at the start of a bull market, you’ll usually miss out on huge growth over many years. The last bull market has gone on for over 10 years. So I guess you’re just looking for a modest dip each year. I must admit I tended to bung in lump sums rather than drip feed. 

Alistair31

This was quite an interesting read from this weeks Monevator post.

https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/downturns-this-deep-can-take-a-long-time-to-recover-from-financially-and-mentally/

Username999

Alistair31 said:

This was quite an interesting read from this weeks Monevator post.

https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/downturns-this-deep-can-take-a-long-time-to-recover-from-financially-and-mentally/

How did the S&P500 get back to break even from 1929 in 15 years if it didn't exist until 1957?

Thrugelmir

Comments probably relate to the bigger and broader Dow Jones. 

bowlhead99

Username999 said:

Alistair31 said:

This was quite an interesting read from this weeks Monevator post.

https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/downturns-this-deep-can-take-a-long-time-to-recover-from-financially-and-mentally/

How did the S&P500 get back to break even from 1929 in 15 years if it didn't exist until 1957?

Thrugelmir said:

Comments probably relate to the bigger and broader Dow Jones. 

The Dow isn't bigger and broader, but less broad - it's only 30 companies and in the early days it was even fewer. However you can say in some sense it's a broader representation of the health of certain types of large companies in general, due it not being cap weighted - ie in the DJIA, the biggest in the 30 doesn't get 100-500 times the weight of the smaller ones.

Before the S&P 500 was launched (and before S&P itself was created by merger of S with P in the forties), the data will have come from one of the Standard Statistics Company's indices -for a few years prior to 1929 they had been doing a 90-company daily index, having run a weekly index of 200+ companies since the early twenties.

Alexland

bargainhunter888 said:

I dunno what to do, but in now or just wait for another dip... feel like I’ve lost the opportunity really, assume you’re buying funds in a weekly basis rather than etf due to transaction costs?

Looking at a global ETF such as SWDA the drop from peak is now nearer 14% this morning which I don't see as a particularly compelling opportunity given the circumstances. As such I have just rebalanced our family's investments back to a normal asset allocation (away from the tilt into extra risk, with recent gains roughly matching the reductions seen before). I will leave the kids JISAs invested but hold a bit more emergency cash in our larger adult ISAs rather than reinvest into bonds. Still contributing regularly.

Sailtheworld

bargainhunter888 said:

PlantMan said:

bargainhunter888 said:

PlantMan said:

I sold about 40% of my portfolio and am slowly buying back on a weekly basis

when did you sell off? are you buying back the same shares? 

Most of it is Index Trackers and I'll just buy buy the same ones, I'm also buying individual US stocks at the moment as well. 
I'm buying a little bit each week to spread my risk

I dunno what to do, but in now or just wait for another dip... feel like I’ve lost the opportunity really, assume you’re buying funds in a weekly basis rather than etf due to transaction costs?

I used to have these worries. Step one was to realise that I didn't know what to do because I didn't have an investment edge. Step two is to invest based on the assumption you don't have an investment edge and, given you don't have such an edge, it would be a little unlikely you could spot someone ahead of time with such an edge such as a fund manager or poster on an investment forum.

It's a revelation. Trading drops of to almost zero and you invest based on when cash becomes available rather than gazing at tea leaves at peaks and troughs and wondering if they're bull traps, dead cat bounces or any other such nonsense which can't be identified until after the fact.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

bostonerimus said:

bargainhunter888 said:

Alexland said:

bargainhunter888 said:

i only bought in a small amount of SWDA last week at 4240p, now it's at 4350p wondering whether i should just load up and not look at it again, it is a long term investment or should i hang on for a pullback next week? what are your thoughts?

The markets have recovered enough that there isn't clear benefit in exposing yourself to volatility above a sensible asset allocation for your circumstances. The risk vs long term potential reward profile for going heavy on equities was looking a lot more attractive a few weeks ago when the markets were in panic mode.

Yeh, i know they have recovered, i was just thinking it may still be a good opportunity with it being 15% down it's still a discount. just dont know what it will bring next week, just dont know why it's recovering given the situation especially in America

What if the historical highs were an unrealistic over valuing ie a premium and we don't get back to those highs for many years as the world economy faces contraction and reduced growth. I'm also dubious about this latest rally, but I have no idea where the markets will actually go. So keep cash on hand, rebalance when necessary and if you planned for this sort of thing by paying off your mortgage, being frugal and understanding how to control spending and keeping a diverse set of investments, ie you didn't have everything in airline stocks, you should be ok. The folks who will suffer are the gig economy people who get paid poorly and live pay cheque to pay cheque and of course the poorly paid people in the front line as they have the double whammy of low financial resources and increased potential virus exposure.

I’m also concerned about this rally as it doesn’t make sense given current economic concerns.

The lull before the storm? Many people haven't grasped the full severity of the situation. Not that anyone in authority is going to tell us what they are actually thinking. As with the GFC. The message is intentionally filtered for public consumption. 

I'm sure many people haven't grasped the full severity but, it's an important but, that doesn't mean by implication the market is wrong because there will be many other people who have taken an overly pessimistic position too.