Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

Thrugelmir

BrockStoker said:

Exactly. The market is already aware of this, so it should be priced in.

We as retail investors are the market. Not some abstract being. 

Sebo027

BrockStoker said:

Other than the thousands of deaths daily and people not being allowed to leave their houses to engage in productive work or consumption, for some considerable time.

Exactly. The market is already aware of this, so it should be priced in.

What may not be priced in is the exact impact on certain stocks, so some stocks may still tank, if the crisis has hit them harder than has been predicted, but I think in many cases stocks have depreciated because of the indiscriminate sell off, inducing stocks which did not deserve to see a lower share price. There are plenty of resilient businesses out there which won't be affected much as long as the current predictions/assumptions hold.

Would it be wrong to think that the gap left behind by the "less resilient" businesses will be filled by cash rich opportunists?

NorthernJoe

BrockStoker said:

Exactly. The market is already aware of this, so it should be priced in. 

"The market" was incredibly slow on this. I'm not sure individual or institutional investors really understand virology/epidemiology very well.  

Many scientists were predicting this from late January.
Markets barely moved until a few weeks ago. The market seems more responsive to some moron tweeting than to actual hard scientific facts/figures. 

This will get a lot worse than most people (and US politicians) realise. 3 million unemployed in one week in the world's largest economy?

No way is the full magnitude of this priced in. 

JohnRo

NorthernJoe said:

BrockStoker said:

Exactly. The market is already aware of this, so it should be priced in. 

.... No way is the full magnitude of this priced in. 

Markets in aggregate will only react to available information, the full magnitude of 'this' is ongoing and the details of the outcome unknown. It will be unknown for several months, possibly years.

Markets aren't going to price in the catastrophic 'end of society' doomsday scenario that gold bugs and preppers crave since that outcome has an extremely low probability.

I realise this isn't on message for some in here but the full magnitude of this may well see markets rocket as the worst effects of the virus and measures employed to control it are removed, the pandemic is conquered and normal service resumed.

The storm will pass and humanity will overcome this, that's a certainty.

Alexland

JohnRo said:

I realise this isn't on message for some in here

I agree some posters on this thread seem unduly pessimistic focusing on the worst case possibilities. In 20 years we will look back at this and go 'yeah that happened, people died, then for most people life carried on'.

masonic

Alexland said:

JohnRo said:

I realise this isn't on message for some in here

I agree some posters on this thread seem unduly pessimistic focusing on the worst case possibilities. In 20 years we will look back at this and go 'yeah that happened, people died, then for most people life carried on'.

I suspect there is a silent majority who are not willing to speculate about what is going to happen in the short term and instead are sticking with their long-term plan.

MK62

Alexland said:

JohnRo said:

I realise this isn't on message for some in here

I agree some posters on this thread seem unduly pessimistic focusing on the worst case possibilities. In 20 years we will look back at this and go 'yeah that happened, people died, then for most people life carried on'.

While that will hopefully be the case for the majority, sadly many will probably never be able to see it that way......

JohnRo

MK62 said:

Alexland said:

JohnRo said:

I realise this isn't on message for some in here

I agree some posters on this thread seem unduly pessimistic focusing on the worst case possibilities. In 20 years we will look back at this and go 'yeah that happened, people died, then for most people life carried on'.

While that will hopefully be the case for the majority, sadly many will probably never be able to see it that way......

That will be the case for the vast majority...

The current total number of cases equates to 87 people in every 1,000,000

The current deaths attributed to Coronavirus equate to 4 people in every 1,000,000

A sense of perspective is important.

In 2017 approx 56 million people died.

Investors should stick to the long term plan and take this crisis in their stride.

takesyourchances

JohnRo said:

MK62 said:

Alexland said:

JohnRo said:

I realise this isn't on message for some in here

I agree some posters on this thread seem unduly pessimistic focusing on the worst case possibilities. In 20 years we will look back at this and go 'yeah that happened, people died, then for most people life carried on'.

While that will hopefully be the case for the majority, sadly many will probably never be able to see it that way......

That will be the case for the vast majority...

The current total number of cases equates to 87 people in every 1,000,000

The current deaths attributed to Coronavirus equate to 4 people in every 1,000,000

A sense of perspective is important.

In 2017 approx 56 million people died.

Investors should stick to the long term plan and take this crisis in their stride.

Along with keeping sensible cash levels this is what I am doing, I have my April payments ready for a decent buy into several of my IT's as as the next tax year comes in will be investing my normal amounts eacg month as this is for long term. Just keep pushing through it and keeping the news and emotions out of it.

Thrugelmir

masonic said:

Alexland said:

JohnRo said:

I realise this isn't on message for some in here

I agree some posters on this thread seem unduly pessimistic focusing on the worst case possibilities. In 20 years we will look back at this and go 'yeah that happened, people died, then for most people life carried on'.

I suspect there is a silent majority who are not willing to speculate about what is going to happen in the short term and instead are sticking with their long-term plan.

Silent majority aren't investors though. We are the fortunate ones that made different choices a long time back.