Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

moneyfoolish

DairyQueen said:

123mat123 said:

The American's have only just accepted the severity of CV, and the market downturn has shifted focus to their economic weaknesses.
...
Despite Trump claiming this morning the USA is the biggest and best country able to deal with the crisis it will be interesting to see how it copes with the "usual" % of Corona Virus sufferers needing hospital care plus the extra 10% of the population who are obese and more prone.
...And they have guns.... Are they going to queue up orderly in "parking lots" waiting for ventilators ? - Hell no...!

No they haven't, but US markets have. 

The US has a major problem as its lack of (and botched) testing has been masking the infection rate in the US for some time. Worse still, they don't have socialised medicine so are reliant on individual health insurance to manage the risk and consequences. Many people have no health insurance. Testing kits have only just been made available but many insurers are refusing to pay for the test let alone the treatment. 

Unsurprisingly, Trump is desperate to offload responsibility for the soon-to-be-obvious crisis in the US to some 'other'. Looks like the EU is the target. The US is particularly vulnerable as it has a buffoon in charge whose priority isn't the health of the US population but in hiding the truth in a half-baked attempt to gain re-election.

So far, every step he has taken has been mismanaged and has increased the risk stateside. I anticipate that our situation will look like a walk in the park compared to what the US will suffer.

The US markets are now reflecting reality and not Trump rhetoric. I have a nasty feeling that our stateside friends will be suffering much worse than us.

Yes. I wonder how he is going convince some of his supporters with relatives dying that it is all "fake news"! As you say it will obviously be all the fault of those nasty Chinese and naughty Europeans who don't do exactly what he wants them to do!

bostonerimus

DairyQueen said:

The US has a major problem as its lack of (and botched) testing has been masking the infection rate in the US for some time. Worse still, they don't have socialised medicine so are reliant on individual health insurance to manage the risk and consequences. Many people have no health insurance. Testing kits have only just been made available but many insurers are refusing to pay for the test let alone the treatment. 

I much prefer a single payer health system and in particular the NHS model. The provision of healthcare in the US varies greatly between that states and the states are the ones actually dealing with the corona virus. I live in Massachusetts and here 98% of residents have health insurance and there is an extensive public health system. The state health commissioner has mandated that all insurance companies must pay for testing and treatment and the state will pay for the 2% without insurance. This could well all be paid for by the state as there are many illnesses that are treated free on public health grounds, things like TB get free treatment. There is a "state of emergency" with recommendations and most universities have closed early for spring break and will probably not open until April. Schools are out for two weeks. Professional sports are postponed, but everything else is going on much the same.

Few people are listening to Trump.

masonic

Reaper said:

Well my decision to buy earlier is looking embarrassingly premature. I still think the virus panic is overdone but that matters little when businesses and trade are affected by the measures being taken. I'll be holding off buying any more for a couple of weeks I think. It feels now like there is more to come in Western Europe and the US.

This is entirely normal. I started buying earlier this week in the knowledge there could be further falls. We won't recognise the bottom when we reach it, and on the way back people will be convinced of a 'dead cat bounce', so there is a chance you could miss out completely if you wait. I had the same experience during the global financial crisis, but kept making regular purchases all the way down and all the way back up.

quirkydeptless

Despite the clobbering I'm still feeling calm and sangine about my investments.

Cash available to cover my needs for a recession/bear market of 3 years (I'm still working but contemplating early retirement within 5 years).

My low risk asset government bonds holding up (well at least for now )

New investments going in to plan, being used to rebalance, so now they'd be buying more equity, but I'm adding mechanically, to adjust back to the risk balance I selected for my portfolio.

DairyQueen

bostonerimus said:

DairyQueen said:

The US has a major problem as its lack of (and botched) testing has been masking the infection rate in the US for some time. Worse still, they don't have socialised medicine so are reliant on individual health insurance to manage the risk and consequences. Many people have no health insurance. Testing kits have only just been made available but many insurers are refusing to pay for the test let alone the treatment. 

I much prefer a single payer health system and in particular the NHS model. The provision of healthcare in the US varies greatly between that states and the states are the ones actually dealing with the corona virus. I live in Massachusetts and here 98% of residents have health insurance and there is an extensive public health system. The state health commissioner has mandated that all insurance companies must pay for testing and treatment and the state will pay for the 2% without insurance. This could well all be paid for by the state as there are many illnesses that are treated free on public health grounds, things like TB get free treatment. There is a "state of emergency" with recommendations and most universities have closed early for spring break and will probably not open until April. Schools are out for two weeks. Professional sports are postponed, but everything else is going on much the same.

Few people are listening to Trump.

But MA is a Democrat heartland and a wealthy state. Isn't Elizabeth Warren your Senator? I doubt the majority in your fair state ever listened to Trump.

Not quite the same in the bible belt and other Trump-supporting regions. Have rust belt voters wisened-up yet? I doubt voters in (for example) MS are enjoying the same kind of health provision as those in wealthy MA.

adonis10

Ceme3000 said:

Reaper said:

Well my decision to buy earlier is looking embarrassingly premature. 

I'm glad I'm not the only one! The cheap shares I bought on Friday are now 32% cheaper today.  
I'm going to resist further 'bargains' for a bit! Lesson learned as they say. 

Another one here. Bought what I thought was a bargain, by yesterday they were down another 23%. Horrendous purchase, but I’m a newbie and learning.

Who did you buy?

Sailtheworld

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I bet you all wished you had liquidated your portfolio, even a week after the market started dropping. I wish too; I did liquidate some but by no means all. Have started rebuying but keeping some fire power. Still down hugely overall so I'm not being smug but if I had lived up to the thread title I would have been in a much better place now.

If wishes were horses beggars would ride.

masonic

masonic said:

2010 said:

masonic said:

2010 said:

Markets don`t rise in a straight line.
They also don`t fall in a straight line.
But it`s pretty obvious the way things are looking at the moment, it`s a downward trend.
Anyone brave enough should sell (if they can) a percentage of their portofolio on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait.
Say what you like, but the indices will be llower later than they are now.
Ftse100 6,462, Dow 25,864 March 6th 2020

Happy to try this experiment with a virtual holding in VWRL. I'll note the price I "sell" on the next rally and wait for your signal to buy it back.

Good show, keep us informed when you sell and for how much, then buy them back later at a cheaper price.
Sounds a bit like short selling.

I now have 3 virtual portfolios open to track how someone would perform if they do as you or others have suggested.

1) Sell on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait (status: waiting for rally, will then sell):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £10.2k

Cash: £0

2) Sell ASAP, and sit out of the market until markets are much lower (status: sold, waiting for buying opportunity):

VWRL: Sold 170 @ 60.01GBP, current Qty 0, value £0

Cash: £10.2k

3) Long term buy and hold (status: holding):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £10.2k

Update:

1) Sell on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait (status: waiting for rally, will then sell):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £9.7k (share price 57.19GBP)

Cash: £0

The next rally didn't come earlier this week, perhaps I should sell today or Monday if there are further gains, but it is now unlikely I'll get as good price as for (2) below.

2) Sell ASAP, and sit out of the market until markets are much lower (status: sold, waiting for buying opportunity):

VWRL: Sold 170 @ 60.01GBP, current Qty 0, value £0

Cash: £10.2k

Will buy back into the market when the FTSE100 goes below 5000, following 2010's suggestion earlier in the thread.

3) Long term buy and hold (status: holding):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £9.7k

quirkydeptless

masonic said:  

Update:

1) Sell on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait (status: waiting for rally, will then sell):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £9.7k (share price 57.19GBP)

Cash: £0

The next rally didn't come earlier this week, perhaps I should sell today or Monday if there are further gains, but it is now unlikely I'll get as good price as for (2) below.

2) Sell ASAP, and sit out of the market until markets are much lower (status: sold, waiting for buying opportunity):

VWRL: Sold 170 @ 60.01GBP, current Qty 0, value £0

Cash: £10.2k

Will buy back into the market when the FTSE100 goes below 5000, following 2010's suggestion earlier in the thread.

3) Long term buy and hold (status: holding):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £9.7k

Please give us another update in at least 5 year time

george4064

I added new cash and invested that cash on 28th Feb, and same again on 9th March, all in equities and the REIT I hold. However (not really sure why) I decided to not top up any of my US equity holdings, thats a region I will include in my next top-up.

Obviously those purchases are showing a loss now, but I didn't invest all my cash sitting on the sidelines in one go. So I have more to invest before end of this tax year and can continue to drip feed through 2020/2021 allowance.

My Father started my ISA for me post 2008/09 GFC, so this is my first serious market movement down. I'm only 28 years old and this downturn coincides very nicely with my DC pension contributions which I have recently upped.