Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

kinger101

blue_max_3 said:

I'm not timing anything really. But sitting on the sidelines and seeing what happens. It's high, so I'm not invested yet. If it plunges, I will probably take a punt. If it gradually rises, I won't have lost too much. It seems I have rather more to gain, than lose.

A very haphazard approach.  Your money is sat in the bank losing 1-2% of it's value each year due to inflation.  Might not seem like much, but it's even more than that once you factor in the opportunity cost of not being in the market and compounding.

blue_max_3

coyrls said:

blue_max_3 said:

I'm not timing anything really. But sitting on the sidelines and seeing what happens. It's high, so I'm not invested yet. If it plunges, I will probably take a punt. If it gradually rises, I won't have lost too much. It seems I have rather more to gain, than lose.

That pretty much sounds like timing to me.

The timing aspect is buying at the bottom. I can see a drop. That doesn't need any skill - or timing.

blue_max_3

kinger101 said:

blue_max_3 said:

I'm not timing anything really. But sitting on the sidelines and seeing what happens. It's high, so I'm not invested yet. If it plunges, I will probably take a punt. If it gradually rises, I won't have lost too much. It seems I have rather more to gain, than lose.

A very haphazard approach.  Your money is sat in the bank losing 1-2% of it's value each year due to inflation.  Might not seem like much, but it's even more than that once you factor in the opportunity cost of not being in the market and compounding.

I'm getting 1.45% interest fixed / 1.31% fixed / 1%. Might not seem like much, but reduces the inflation.
How much does it have to drop for me to be better off? The recent drops have put that in the shadows. I'm also fully invested in premium bonds, so you never know!
I know you feel certain things are going to work out for you and I hope you're right. It will be good for the country. My dog in this fight is likely a small increase v potentially pouncing if there is volatility. 
Warren Buffet has followed my lead, so I think he's banking on me to be right! 

Thrugelmir

blue_max_3 said:

coyrls said:

blue_max_3 said:

I'm not timing anything really. But sitting on the sidelines and seeing what happens. It's high, so I'm not invested yet. If it plunges, I will probably take a punt. If it gradually rises, I won't have lost too much. It seems I have rather more to gain, than lose.

That pretty much sounds like timing to me.

The timing aspect is buying at the bottom. I can see a drop. That doesn't need any skill - or timing.

What are you proposing to trade in when buying in at the "bottom" ? 

blue_max_3

Thrugelmir said:

What are you proposing to trade in when buying in at the "bottom" ? 

I'd probably start with the cash at 1% (NS&I). But I have two full years worth of cash ISA's, which I could switch to S&S. I wholly agree I couldn't buy at the bottom. I said if there was a significant drop. I watch the markets daily and have yet to decide how much of a drop I'd decide on. It might depend if it was a descent or a plunge.

Prism

blue_max_3 said:

Warren Buffet has followed my lead, so I think he's banking on me to be right! 

So Warren Buffet hasn't sold anything but airlines and still has the vast majority of his (and Berkshires) wealth invested in companies and equities. 

coyrls

blue_max_3 said:

Thrugelmir said:

What are you proposing to trade in when buying in at the "bottom" ? 

I'd probably start with the cash at 1% (NS&I). But I have two full years worth of cash ISA's, which I could switch to S&S. I wholly agree I couldn't buy at the bottom. I said if there was a significant drop. I watch the markets daily and have yet to decide how much of a drop I'd decide on. It might depend if it was a descent or a plunge.

I guess you'll know it when you see it then.  Let us know when it is please.  Still sounds like timing to me.

Thrugelmir

blue_max_3 said:

Thrugelmir said:

What are you proposing to trade in when buying in at the "bottom" ? 

I'd probably start with the cash at 1% (NS&I). But I have two full years worth of cash ISA's, which I could switch to S&S. I wholly agree I couldn't buy at the bottom. I said if there was a significant drop. I watch the markets daily and have yet to decide how much of a drop I'd decide on. It might depend if it was a descent or a plunge.

Markets move extremely rapidly during the trading day. Opportune moments are fleeting. As robo trading kicks in. 

blue_max_3

Prism said:

So Warren Buffet hasn't sold anything but airlines and still has the vast majority of his (and Berkshires) wealth invested in companies and equities. 

But has a fortune in cash, which makes no sense unless you think there is likely to be an opportunity ahead.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-real-reason-warren-buffett-is-sitting-on-a-record-128-billion-in-cash-according-to-one-strategist-2020-03-02

blue_max_3

Thrugelmir said:

Markets move extremely rapidly during the trading day. Opportune moments are fleeting. As robo trading kicks in. 

True enough. That certainly might thwart my strategy.
Do you think if I saved 5%, I may be better off? Do you see that as an ambitious target?
Seems I'm getting a bit of a kicking here - is no-one else supporting my stance?