Markets - Minor Correction? (Edit: Question Answered)

John464

VXman said:

I'm just keeping with my ETF's. However, as I have quite a stash in low-interest savings that I was going to put into some ETF's can someone tell me when its good to go for it!

No

Alexland

aroominyork said:

  I wonder if you would have moved as quickly when you used mostly active funds?

123mat123 said:

You don't think it's a bit soon ?

I would have been wasting brain cycles worrying about how specific companies and strategies within those active funds would perform. I know that I will never make a perfect decision or perfectly judge the bottom of any dip so am happy gradually buying into the market as unit prices lower. If it's the end of humanity the stocks and cash would probably be worthless anyway. If everything turns out fine then I'll retire with more units than otherwise.

ChopperST

123mat123 said:

Alexland said:

It's now down enough that I have done a slight over-rebalance into equities.

You don't think it's a bit soon ?
It seems Coronavirus is a fairly mild disease compared to say "normal" flue that will kill thousands "everywhere" this year, but the difference is how countries are reacting to it.
There will no doubt be a real (temporary) economic hit due to reduced Chinese output, but quite possibly a bigger hit when the
the US and Europe join the "panic".
They talk about hotspots in China,Taiwan and Italy. Looking at the WHO map there is none in the continent of Africa, which would seem unlikely.
Let's face it, its entrenched, it's coming and it's not much more than a common cold for most people - but our countries will go into shutdown mode because that is what needs to be seen to be done...

We mitigate against the seasonal influenza by predicting the prevalent strain 6-8 months in advanced based on data from around the world and vaccinating the most vulnerable in our society.  This helps to build a herd immunity and breaks the cycle of infection so epidemics / pandemics are much less likely.  There also those who will naturally be immune.

Covid-19 is a completely new virus of which there is no such immunity and a vaccine is 12 months away.  Do you have elderly relatives?  Friends with diabetes?  A young child in the family?  If you do then how would you feel if they died from this virus if we went about business as usual?  If you are a healthy adult then you likely have nothing to worry about but its a touch disingenuous to say its not much more than a common cold for most people as by definition others will suffer more greatly than you.  Having a "i'll be alright Jack" attitude is the wrong one to take.

The response to the virus is a completely rational and sensible approach to take.  What happens if 40% of the police / fire service / doctors in this country were all simultaneously struck down with the illness or needed to be quarantined?  Prevention is always better than the cure.

george4064

I'm sitting tight at the moment with my all equity (with some property) portfolio, I have cash on the side-lines ready to buy more but I'm going to hold off a bit longer to see what happens.

John464

Lets be honest.
Anything that culls the unproductive OAPs like me is probably beneficial to the economy.
There will be short term disruption, and thats a negative.
But the long term overall result could be positive for the economy.
Who knows?

Ciprico

ChopperST said:

123mat123 said:

Alexland said:

It's now down enough that I have done a slight over-rebalance into equities.

You don't think it's a bit soon ?
It seems Coronavirus is a fairly mild disease compared to say "normal" flue that will kill thousands "everywhere" this year, but the difference is how countries are reacting to it.
There will no doubt be a real (temporary) economic hit due to reduced Chinese output, but quite possibly a bigger hit when the
the US and Europe join the "panic".
They talk about hotspots in China,Taiwan and Italy. Looking at the WHO map there is none in the continent of Africa, which would seem unlikely.
Let's face it, its entrenched, it's coming and it's not much more than a common cold for most people - but our countries will go into shutdown mode because that is what needs to be seen to be done...

We mitigate against the seasonal influenza by predicting the prevalent strain 6-8 months in advanced based on data from around the world and vaccinating the most vulnerable in our society.  This helps to build a herd immunity and breaks the cycle of infection so epidemics / pandemics are much less likely.  There also those who will naturally be immune.

Covid-19 is a completely new virus of which there is no such immunity and a vaccine is 12 months away.  Do you have elderly relatives?  Friends with diabetes?  A young child in the family?  If you do then how would you feel if they died from this virus if we went about business as usual?  If you are a healthy adult then you likely have nothing to worry about but its a touch disingenuous to say its not much more than a common cold for most people as by definition others will suffer more greatly than you.  Having a "i'll be alright Jack" attitude is the wrong one to take.

The response to the virus is a completely rational and sensible approach to take.  What happens if 40% of the police / fire service / doctors in this country were all simultaneously struck down with the illness or needed to be quarantined?  Prevention is always better than the cure.

...I don't claim to be expert on disease control, and am personally over midway up table below, and I appreciate the tragedy of anyone's family members dying, but I suspect if you looked at corresponding chart below for most other potentially fatal diseases it would look a lot worse...

ChopperST

123mat123 said:

ChopperST said:

123mat123 said:

Alexland said:

It's now down enough that I have done a slight over-rebalance into equities.

You don't think it's a bit soon ?
It seems Coronavirus is a fairly mild disease compared to say "normal" flue that will kill thousands "everywhere" this year, but the difference is how countries are reacting to it.
There will no doubt be a real (temporary) economic hit due to reduced Chinese output, but quite possibly a bigger hit when the
the US and Europe join the "panic".
They talk about hotspots in China,Taiwan and Italy. Looking at the WHO map there is none in the continent of Africa, which would seem unlikely.
Let's face it, its entrenched, it's coming and it's not much more than a common cold for most people - but our countries will go into shutdown mode because that is what needs to be seen to be done...

We mitigate against the seasonal influenza by predicting the prevalent strain 6-8 months in advanced based on data from around the world and vaccinating the most vulnerable in our society.  This helps to build a herd immunity and breaks the cycle of infection so epidemics / pandemics are much less likely.  There also those who will naturally be immune.

Covid-19 is a completely new virus of which there is no such immunity and a vaccine is 12 months away.  Do you have elderly relatives?  Friends with diabetes?  A young child in the family?  If you do then how would you feel if they died from this virus if we went about business as usual?  If you are a healthy adult then you likely have nothing to worry about but its a touch disingenuous to say its not much more than a common cold for most people as by definition others will suffer more greatly than you.  Having a "i'll be alright Jack" attitude is the wrong one to take.

The response to the virus is a completely rational and sensible approach to take.  What happens if 40% of the police / fire service / doctors in this country were all simultaneously struck down with the illness or needed to be quarantined?  Prevention is always better than the cure.

...I don't claim to be expert on disease control, and am personally over midway up table below, and I appreciate the tragedy of anyone's family members dying, but I suspect if you looked at corresponding chart below for most other potentially fatal diseases it would look a lot worse...

From an economic perspective mortality is not the issue.  Its the morbidity, a virus we have no herd immunity from will cause untold disruption if appropriate measures aren't taken to stem person to person transmission.

ffacoffipawb

Just cutting my drawdown from 3.5% to 3% to conserve capital. 2 years drawdown gone in 2 days. Easy come easy go i suppose.

i did a -40% stress test and the numbers still work at 3.5% drawdown, but temporarily reducing to 3% as a precaution.

Sailtheworld

I'm maxing out pension contributions from 2020/21 so I meet the recycling rules when I recycle the lump sum in a couple of years. This will be happening on 8th April so expect markets to be fully recovered by then and plunge on the 9th. If anyone can throw a few coppers my way for the advice I'd be grateful.

Audaxer

Alexland said:

It's now down enough that I have done a slight over-rebalance into equities.

Alex, if its funds you are rebalancing and you put in the orders this morning, do you get the deal prices as at the end of today? The markets are still falling as of now so it looks like a good decision.