Is a Housing Price Drop a Disaster for All?

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

I’m not disagreeing with you that is was and is a possibility.
I’m disagreeing with you removing the context completely.
You and I have different views on likelihood.
You seem to grab onto any worst case scenario as a chance to get on the ladder whereas I see worst case scenarios as unlikely as there’s a lot of momentum and effort going in by various parties to actively avoid the worst case scenarios.

Ladder? It is a bubble, pure and simple, you must acknowledge that at least? Not long ago you were saying that Brexit wouldn`t happen I seem to remember, now you seem to be saying that a crisis like this in one of the largest world economies isn`t going to have economic consequences? They are already talking about Chinese demand for oil dropping 40% this year, that definitely has effects in global credit markets, like it or not.

Crashy_Time

triathlon wrote: »

It is very possible that the planet Earth could be wiped out this very night, if not this night any night in the next year or even the next decade. But I am willing to bet that some of us will be discussing property issues tomorrow and even next year, and a very few of us will be talking about property in the next decade, guess who

You......?

lisyloo

No I don’t acknowledge a bubble.
House prices are higher in nominal terms because interest rates are very low. House prices are currently rising and sales are rising (except in one or two areas).
Yep I was wrong about brexit and there were times during the long farce that I didn’t think it would happen but I’ve accepted reality. No point moaning or denying reality is there?
I am not denying economic consequences from Coronavirus. I haven’t seen a sensible case for it leading to a uk property crash yet. You’ve hinted at some conspiracy theory that the banks haven’t actually implemented better capitalisation since 2008.
I don’t deny risks but there is something unhealthy with constantly going for the worse case scenario (which very rarely happens). Is that bias because some individuals want a crash?

My assets are constantly balanced for geo-political risks and a bunch of other things the professionals understand better than me. I don’t deny risks I balance my plans for expected and unexpected risks and biological hazard from Asia was expected.

It must be very difficult and sad constantly expecting the worst in life.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

No I don’t acknowledge a bubble.
House prices are higher in nominal terms because interest rates are very low. House prices are currently rising and sales are rising (except in one or two areas).
Yep I was wrong about brexit and there were times during the long farce that I didn’t think it would happen but I’ve accepted reality. No point moaning or denying reality is there?
I am not denying economic consequences from Coronavirus. I haven’t seen a sensible case for it leading to a uk property crash yet. You’ve hinted at some conspiracy theory that the banks haven’t actually implemented better capitalisation since 2008.
I don’t deny risks but there is something unhealthy with constantly going for the worse case scenario (which very rarely happens). Is that bias because some individuals want a crash?

My assets are constantly balanced for geo-political risks and a bunch of other things the professionals understand better than me. I don’t deny risks I balance my plans for expected and unexpected risks and biological hazard from Asia was expected.

It must be very difficult and sad constantly expecting the worst in life.

Can you take us through specifically what you did to your portfolio when you realised (before the event I assume?) that the "biological hazard from Asia" was on it`s way? All I could manage was a small top up to one of my emerging market funds when it dropped a bit after the event.

triathlon

Crashy_Time wrote: »

You......?

Doubt it Dude, I will be living a very comfortable retirement long before then in more space than I need in the sort of luxury you can only dream of

Good luck with you "wait for a disaster" plan, hopefully you will get your human misery story at some point, sadly it still won't get you what you what you want, I would bet money on it.

Sailtheworld

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Can you take us through specifically what you did to your portfolio when you realised (before the event I assume?) that the "biological hazard from Asia" was on it`s way? All I could manage was a small top up to one of my emerging market funds when it dropped a bit after the event.

Diversification is the answer. With diversification all you need to realise is that events will happen and not overly worry about what they may be because the chances are neither you nor I could predict them anyway.

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Can you take us through specifically what you did to your portfolio when you realised (before the event I assume?) that the "biological hazard from Asia" was on it`s way? All I could manage was a small top up to one of my emerging market funds when it dropped a bit after the event.

No I can’t as I don’t DIY.
I have processionals who regularly review the geo political risks, asset balance etc. Both regularly and ad-hoc.
Suffice to say I believe they can do a better job that I can.

Sailtheworld

lisyloo wrote: »

I have processionals who regularly review the geo political risks, asset balance etc. Both regularly and ad-hoc.
Suffice to say I believe they can do a better job that I can.

How much are you paying for this service?

Just because they might be able to do a better job than you can doesn't make it worthwhile. Wouldn't something like a World tracker do pretty much the same thing for just a 0.2% fee?

I don't even see how you can possibly check if they're any good at managing geo-political risk in the first place.

lisyloo

The cost is 0.5% and I get institutional rates.
No a worldwide tracker would not do the same as my IFA.
Firstly I get all advice included in that rate which could be estate planning or moving ex- employer pensions. Protection against bad decisions is extremely valuable in my view.
Secondly there is protection against ever more sophisticated scams, fraud and hacks e.g. pension liberation is quite sophisticated and credible these days and some people lose their life savings. I am quite happy with the trade off of the inconvenience of dealing via my IFA manually for the extra protection that gives.
Thirdly I believe a balanced and managed portfolio is lower risk than a straight equity tracker where loses are reflected in full and not hedged in any way.
I have no issue with other people doing what they want DIY but I would point out the stories we see all the time about people making bad decisions or being scamed out of their life savings. It doesn’t work for everyone.
As regards your last point, well first there is historical performance comparisons which is purely quantitive, but I don’t understand your argument that people aren’t sophisticated enough to read a document and take a view on whether the analysis is credible yet they are somehow sophisticated enough to avoid scams and bad decisions like pension liberation.
Its fine by me if people want to DIY but I don’t agree with the argument that people are sophisticated enough to manage complex issues and elaborate scams  (like pension liberation) but can’t make a judgement on a published analysis or a judgment on their IFAs advice and performance over time.

There will never be agreement on this subject but I think I understand the pros/cons and costs so thankyou for your advice.

MobileSaver

movilogo said:
House price correction is long overdue. Something needs to happen, even if that means only 5% reduction.

I find it very telling that you and your HPC chums have slowly but surely come to the realisation that your House Price Crash nirvana is not going to happen the way you originally envisaged.

Back in the day we had the infamous "50% off by Christmas" which over the years slowly dwindled to price drops of 40%, 30%, 20%, 10% and now apparently a 5% reduction will be considered a "Crash!"