Coronavirus effect on property markets?

Sailtheworld

Crashy_Time said:

Sailtheworld said:

What's the definition of a slow down?Crashy_Time said:

TheCheerleader said:

Back on topic... Even Martin says a slow down of the housing market is likely on the home page. 

I was getting concerned as we have a buyer from last summer,( looong delay, long story) prices had gone up since in the area we are looking, and houses were selling quickly. I am now seeing hardly anything new and also some reductions. We are thinking of stepping off the ladder and back on at a later point.

 The Price Police have been much less active of late on here, even the most hopeful "property is my fortune" people must realise that this bubble is unsustainable now?

I've not looked to see what Martin said but I think you're extrapolating 'slow down' to mean 'the bursting of an unsustainable bubble'. 

Property either powers ahead or it crashes ( a bit, or a lot) the third way recently has been Government/CB props to keep it afloat at too high prices. When people know their neighbour has been trying to sell for over a year it forces them, even if only subconsciously, to re-evaluate property and it`s value.

I've looked at the increase in my own house's value for the last 6 years according to Nationwide and, on average, it's increased, fairly steadily by 2.4% ahead of inflation.That's not to be sniffed at but it's a long way from either powering ahead or crashing.

It's quite possible that a slow down could mean the average over the next 6 years could be a bit less than that. Martin's not one to shy away from the limelight so I think if he meant Coronavirus was going to !!!!!! the debt fueled bubble he might have said that.

Sailtheworld

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

Sailtheworld said:

What's the definition of a slow down?Crashy_Time said:

TheCheerleader said:

Back on topic... Even Martin says a slow down of the housing market is likely on the home page. 

I was getting concerned as we have a buyer from last summer,( looong delay, long story) prices had gone up since in the area we are looking, and houses were selling quickly. I am now seeing hardly anything new and also some reductions. We are thinking of stepping off the ladder and back on at a later point.

 The Price Police have been much less active of late on here, even the most hopeful "property is my fortune" people must realise that this bubble is unsustainable now?

I've not looked to see what Martin said but I think you're extrapolating 'slow down' to mean 'the bursting of an unsustainable bubble'. 

Property either powers ahead or it crashes ( a bit, or a lot) the third way recently has been Government/CB props to keep it afloat at too high prices. When people know their neighbour has been trying to sell for over a year it forces them, even if only subconsciously, to re-evaluate property and it`s value.

And when this much manipulation has pushed up property far higher than it should the crash is far more intense 

Exactly, and a debt laden economy is much more vulnerable to shocks such as the virus outbreak as well.

The over leveraged banking system is fine while things are going up, but when things are going down like the markets now the banks are in real trouble.

the people will not stand for another banker bailout 

People with bank deposits were bailed out. The banks failed but the taxpayer stepped in to protect the savings of the already wealthy.

Sailtheworld

Crashy_Time said:

TheCheerleader said:

Back on topic... Even Martin says a slow down of the housing market is likely on the home page. 

I was getting concerned as we have a buyer from last summer,( looong delay, long story) prices had gone up since in the area we are looking, and houses were selling quickly. I am now seeing hardly anything new and also some reductions. We are thinking of stepping off the ladder and back on at a later point.

 The Price Police have been much less active of late on here, even the most hopeful "property is my fortune" people must realise that this bubble is unsustainable now?

You've been going on about an unsustainable bubble for how long now? 5 years? 10 years? Since you sold to rent in 1998?

Maybe you should have a word with yourself.

Crashy_Time

Sailtheworld said:

Crashy_Time said:

Sailtheworld said:

What's the definition of a slow down?Crashy_Time said:

TheCheerleader said:

Back on topic... Even Martin says a slow down of the housing market is likely on the home page. 

I was getting concerned as we have a buyer from last summer,( looong delay, long story) prices had gone up since in the area we are looking, and houses were selling quickly. I am now seeing hardly anything new and also some reductions. We are thinking of stepping off the ladder and back on at a later point.

 The Price Police have been much less active of late on here, even the most hopeful "property is my fortune" people must realise that this bubble is unsustainable now?

I've not looked to see what Martin said but I think you're extrapolating 'slow down' to mean 'the bursting of an unsustainable bubble'. 

Property either powers ahead or it crashes ( a bit, or a lot) the third way recently has been Government/CB props to keep it afloat at too high prices. When people know their neighbour has been trying to sell for over a year it forces them, even if only subconsciously, to re-evaluate property and it`s value.

I've looked at the increase in my own house's value for the last 6 years according to Nationwide and, on average, it's increased, fairly steadily by 2.4% ahead of inflation.That's not to be sniffed at but it's a long way from either powering ahead or crashing.

It's quite possible that a slow down could mean the average over the next 6 years could be a bit less than that. Martin's not one to shy away from the limelight so I think if he meant Coronavirus was going to !!!!!! the debt fueled bubble he might have said that.

Baker says buy bread rolls (by borrowing money from me) because bread rolls are definitely holding their value. The true test is can you sell it, many are finding that harder to do at anything like the price the headlines from mortgage lenders tell them is realistic.

Crashy_Time

Sailtheworld said:

Crashy_Time said:

TheCheerleader said:

Back on topic... Even Martin says a slow down of the housing market is likely on the home page. 

I was getting concerned as we have a buyer from last summer,( looong delay, long story) prices had gone up since in the area we are looking, and houses were selling quickly. I am now seeing hardly anything new and also some reductions. We are thinking of stepping off the ladder and back on at a later point.

 The Price Police have been much less active of late on here, even the most hopeful "property is my fortune" people must realise that this bubble is unsustainable now?

You've been going on about an unsustainable bubble for how long now? 5 years? 10 years? Since you sold to rent in 1998?

Maybe you should have a word with yourself.

Do you think it is sustainable? Why not go on record now and make a prediction one way or the other....

Sailtheworld

Crashy_Time said:

Sailtheworld said:

Crashy_Time said:

TheCheerleader said:

Back on topic... Even Martin says a slow down of the housing market is likely on the home page. 

I was getting concerned as we have a buyer from last summer,( looong delay, long story) prices had gone up since in the area we are looking, and houses were selling quickly. I am now seeing hardly anything new and also some reductions. We are thinking of stepping off the ladder and back on at a later point.

 The Price Police have been much less active of late on here, even the most hopeful "property is my fortune" people must realise that this bubble is unsustainable now?

You've been going on about an unsustainable bubble for how long now? 5 years? 10 years? Since you sold to rent in 1998?

Maybe you should have a word with yourself.

Do you think it is sustainable? Why not go on record now and make a prediction one way or the other....

I reckon that house prices at the end of a year will be within +/- 10% of where they started the year. As a prediction that would've been correct every year since 1995 apart from the beginning and end of the noughties.

Of course your prediction that, one day, there will be a crash is absolutely nailed on. Maybe you could fine tune it and try and pin it down to a certain decade or two. You don't really get it - the what is important but so is the when. How long have you been crying wolf for now? 

Sailtheworld

Crashy_Time said:

Sailtheworld said:

Crashy_Time said:

Sailtheworld said:

What's the definition of a slow down?Crashy_Time said:

TheCheerleader said:

Back on topic... Even Martin says a slow down of the housing market is likely on the home page. 

I was getting concerned as we have a buyer from last summer,( looong delay, long story) prices had gone up since in the area we are looking, and houses were selling quickly. I am now seeing hardly anything new and also some reductions. We are thinking of stepping off the ladder and back on at a later point.

 The Price Police have been much less active of late on here, even the most hopeful "property is my fortune" people must realise that this bubble is unsustainable now?

I've not looked to see what Martin said but I think you're extrapolating 'slow down' to mean 'the bursting of an unsustainable bubble'. 

Property either powers ahead or it crashes ( a bit, or a lot) the third way recently has been Government/CB props to keep it afloat at too high prices. When people know their neighbour has been trying to sell for over a year it forces them, even if only subconsciously, to re-evaluate property and it`s value.

I've looked at the increase in my own house's value for the last 6 years according to Nationwide and, on average, it's increased, fairly steadily by 2.4% ahead of inflation.That's not to be sniffed at but it's a long way from either powering ahead or crashing.

It's quite possible that a slow down could mean the average over the next 6 years could be a bit less than that. Martin's not one to shy away from the limelight so I think if he meant Coronavirus was going to !!!!!! the debt fueled bubble he might have said that.

Baker says buy bread rolls (by borrowing money from me) because bread rolls are definitely holding their value. The true test is can you sell it, many are finding that harder to do at anything like the price the headlines from mortgage lenders tell them is realistic.

I've been trying to sell a house for a family member going into care for the last year. I've 'sold' it twice; first time to some clowns who disappeared off the face of the Earth and, second time, to a guy who was credit impaired. After getting fed up of the palava I auctioned it and got within 3% of the original asking price with the buyer paying all fees so in cash terms even closer.

The people I used for the auction were telling me that the market has been warming up for the last year and I should expect an auction price today to be around that of a sale through an estate agent last year. I thought they were just bigging themselves up but I was really surprised just how high the prices were for effectively distressed sales.

Having thought about your true test of whether a house can be sold I had a look at sales volumes on land registry (I don't know if you trust them). We're obviously nowhere near the sales volumes of 2006 - 2008 but there's a clear trend of increasing sales volumes since the bottom of 2009.

It's not getting harder to sell - it's getting easier.

silvertooth

triathlon said:

TheCheerleader said:

Back on topic... Even Martin says a slow down of the housing market is likely on the home page. 

I was getting concerned as we have a buyer from last summer,( looong delay, long story) prices had gone up since in the area we are looking, and houses were selling quickly. I am now seeing hardly anything new and also some reductions. We are thinking of stepping off the ladder and back on at a later point.

We have been here before, potential sellers will just put it off for a while, they know the demand will be sat waiting again.

This is a crisis within a crisis

all financial markets are crashing this is it

the banks are collapsing the derivatives markets can NOT survive this

people will stop paying rents and mortgages and they will not be evicted because everyone will be too scared about the pandemic and getting food and medicine 

This is it folks

silvertooth

Nebulous2 said:

TheCheerleader said:

triathlon said:

TheCheerleader said:

We have been here before, potential sellers will just put it off for a while, they know the demand will be sat waiting again.

Erm .. actually no we have not, it’s a perfect storm. 

The economy will not recover this year, a worldwide recession is looming. 

China will for the first time in 10 years show negative growth.
 Covid-19 is keeping people from travelling, socialising, eating out, going to theatres,cinemas, concerts etc.
A no deal brexit also on the horizon.

Forecast for Chinese growth this year of 4.6%. Very low by historic standards, but not negative. 

Ha there is no way China will have any growth this year 

THEY ARE SHUT DOWN

nobody is going to work, nobody is getting paid, nobody is paying their rents or mortgages 

the banks are collapsing 

mall the media can do is try to hide it for as long as they can

silvertooth

Crashy_Time said:

Sailtheworld said:

Crashy_Time said:

TheCheerleader said:

Back on topic... Even Martin says a slow down of the housing market is likely on the home page. 

I was getting concerned as we have a buyer from last summer,( looong delay, long story) prices had gone up since in the area we are looking, and houses were selling quickly. I am now seeing hardly anything new and also some reductions. We are thinking of stepping off the ladder and back on at a later point.

 The Price Police have been much less active of late on here, even the most hopeful "property is my fortune" people must realise that this bubble is unsustainable now?

You've been going on about an unsustainable bubble for how long now? 5 years? 10 years? Since you sold to rent in 1998?

Maybe you should have a word with yourself.

Do you think it is sustainable? Why not go on record now and make a prediction one way or the other....

I will make some predictions and I recommend others make some specific predictions also for the next five years then we can compare in 2025.

1. Governments will type in Quadrillions of virtual currency into their bank accounts and do helicopter drops of confetti money to try to stop the financial crisis.

2. The massive currency creation props up the stock markets a little and stops the big banks and big companies officially collapsing but eventually creating big inflation.

3. Just like John Laws currency abuse exactly 300 years ago in 1720, the stock markets start to sky rocket in currency terms but prices of cost of living also skyrocket. A loaf of bread passes $1000 and governments print larger notes with more zeros on the end every month. It’s no good because huge bundles of cash are needed even for small transactions.

4. instead of printing notes with numbers in the billions they use the latest COVID21 which a mutated Covid19 as an excuse to ban paper currency because it’s spreading the virus.

5. markets freeze up, no faith left in digital currency and social unrest ensued.

6. hospitals are overrun and can not cope with demand. Government says stay at home and self isolation is better.

7. bodies are left in the street and the authorities can’t cope due to lack of staff as so many get infected.

8. lack of vital medical supplies due to China being shut down for multiple years means all those on antidepressants go crazy and unbelievable things happen as society completely breaks down

9. This is it folks the end game. It doesn’t matter how much money they print it won’t fix this

10. gold and silver revert back to free market true unmanipulated value which is a tenth of an ounce of gold or silver worth an acre of land.

Gold and silver go to 1:1 both worth the same even though silver is more rare and more useful than gold.