Iran and Oil

Username999

Odd movements in the Oil price?
Has the Strait of Hormuz become safer since the General was killed?

veryintrigued

Bath filled up with petrol again.

Have to store it somewhere

MaxiRobriguez

Roughly back to where we were before the general was killed, which would go in hand with the de-escalation commentary today. Gold prices having a similar trajectory. Rotation back into risk assets.

TBC15

Bit early to say game over. Filled up the oil tank today. With Trump in the game, anything is possible.

MaxiRobriguez

TBC15 wrote: »

Bit early to say game over. Filled up the oil tank today. With Trump in the game, anything is possible.

On the contrary, markets have worried about a potential US Iranian war (albeit not to the sort of worry as the China trade war or Brexit) for a while now and how Iran would react to any Trump lash out.

The reactions to the killing from both sides have removed an unknown without adding real price risk. Markets are forward looking and are pricing in the likelihood that de-escalation will continue and Iran will just fall back to their favoured proxy war tactics but with the knowledge if something happens in the future the expectation of a real war is less than the expectation prior to all this starting.

TBC15

MaxiRobriguez wrote: »

On the contrary, markets have worried about a potential US Iranian war (albeit not to the sort of worry as the China trade war or Brexit) for a while now and how Iran would react to any Trump lash out.

The reactions to the killing from both sides have removed an unknown without adding real price risk. Markets are forward looking and are pricing in the likelihood that de-escalation will continue and Iran will just fall back to their favoured proxy war tactics but with the knowledge if something happens in the future the expectation of a real war is less than the expectation prior to all this starting.

Sounds good, I hope you are right.

BrockStoker

It was a good buying opportunity, but not for oil IMHO. I sold out of my energy fund (lots of oil companies) a week ago. Should have done so months back, when I took profits. Live and learn.