Just for fun

pip895

Having recently read through the “Going with Bonkers..” thread, I decided I wanted to give Bonkers and Muttley another run but in a rather different format.:)

I have used Trustnet to sort funds on three month results and picked “Bonkers” from the top 25 funds and “Muttley” out of the bottom 25 funds. I have restricted the funds to those with 4 or 5 FE crowns – this still leaves a field of about 790 funds which seems plenty and I am hoping that this will get rid of some of the more esoteric/dodgy funds.

I am picking both the funds to be winners so will pick the one out of the 25 that I think has the best chance of out performing and not loosing me a load of money. Another change from the old format is that I can change the fund at any time – provided I pick the replacement from the respective top/bottom 25 funds at that time. When I make a swap I will post on here. I will compare progress by investing the same amount in Fido -Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap Index.

My first fund “Bonkers” is TB Saracen UK Alpha it was No 5 on the list. No 1 (the top performer over 3 months) was Polar capital Biotec – but this is much higher risk and only available as income units – beside which it looks to have turned down over the last few weeks.

Muttley had to be chosen from a selection of mainly index linked and global bonds – the only equity in the selection was Lazard Mena A Acc USD – I wasn’t feeling that brave and have some ethical concerns about investing in Saudi Arabia anyway. I picked Royal London index linked – It was down in 9th worst place but was both lower risk and lower charges than others and importantly was available as accumulation units.

I have just invested £5000 in each fund - which is enough to keep me interested but not so much that if it goes badly it will make a significaant hole in my otherwise predominantly boring ISA.

Part of my rational for this apparently foolish exercise is to prove to myself that either, short term ups and downs, are just noise and I need to ignore them when picking funds or, If there is an apparent effect, then to give myself the excuse to keep looking at them as usual.:rotfl:

06/01/20 Bonkers £5000, Muttley £5000, Fido £5000

If anyone fancies placing odds or testing out there own pet theory's please feel free to post here!

Addendum - 10/Jan I made the decision that having non equity in the selection is a mistake. Obviously it has the potential to do well if equities suffer a correction, but that really isn’t what this race is about. Nocking out non equity funds reduces the field more than I would like, so I have also included 3 crown funds. My new fund pick for Muttley is LF Odey Continental European Fund - I could have picked LT Global but it’s a fund I already invest in and is only available on HL as income units.

pip895

Update
So far the control Fido -(Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap) is romping out in front at £5126, Bonkers (TB Saracen UK Alpha) is on £4997 and Muttley (LF Odey Continental European fund) is on £4989.

This week I am sticking with my choices even though Bonkers has fallen well out of the top 25 funds. To look into the really short term effects I am entering another Dog to the race “Max” the rules of engagement for max is that he is picked from the top or bottom 25 funds when sorted on the 1 month figures. This week I have picked the very top fund “Matthews China Small companies” I expect to swap this fund out fairly frequently.

DireEmblem

Something I've thought for a while is investing in trackers, but each month invest in the worst performing market tracker. There must be a way to simulate that historically without risking money though, and it wouldn't necessarily guarantee good results either - its basically assuming all being the same that some markets are having a downturn or will catch up on the rest so in the long run potentially drive a better profit.

You would probably want to include a UK Allshare, US something, Emerging Markets, Latin America, China, Japan, Euro ex uk, and possibly something Russian. That probably covers most things right?

quirkydeptless

pip895 wrote: »

Update
So far the control Fido -(Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap) is romping out in front at £5126

pip895 wrote: »

Bonkers (TB Saracen UK Alpha) is on £4997

pip895 wrote: »

Muttley (LF Odey Continental European fund) is on £4989.

quirkydeptless

pip895 wrote: »

I am entering another Dog to the race “Max” the rules of engagement for max is that he is picked from the top or bottom 25 funds when sorted on the 1 month figures. This week I have picked the very top fund “Matthews China Small companies” I expect to swap this fund out fairly frequently.

veryintrigued

We need a special section for posts like these