Investing in biotech stocks - My experience so far

BrockStoker

Thrugelmir said:

BrockStoker said:

Thrugelmir said:

Institutional investors require confidence in the management. Lose trust you lose respect. What else is the management doing to feather their own nest? 

Yes, I do see that. In my eyes, what the CEO did was justified (why should she not make some money from her hard work?), but the market does not have a heart, and only sees $$. I understand that too, but I think they (the market) are missing the big picture in this case. I have since sold the stock (at a loss) never the less - not because I think it is a bad investment, but because I believe my money will work harder for me if invested elsewhere.

Sometimes one needs to be patient to be a contrarian investor.  Think years not months.  All that matters is the final outcome. If the share offers value buy more!  One day others will come round to your way of thinking. There's often short termism in the markets. As
people cannot afford to underperform. You are only accountable to yourself.  

I could not agree more. I think, at the end of the day, you have to stick to your guns, and put your money where your mouth is. In my case, I have come to the conclusion that I found a better investment, so I moved my cash there instead. If the opportunity is still there, I would like to get back into EVFM one day, but at the moment it's looking like I backed the right horse, and I am very confident in that horse to put it mildly. Hopefully we will have confirmation soon (or not - although I think that is very unlikely), and I will come back here to report.

BrockStoker

Wow!

California-based pharmaceutical company claims top spot in 26th annual ranking of fastest-growing businesses

https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2020/11/18/deloitte-unveils-2020-north-america-technology-fast-500-rankings

coachman12

BrockStoker said:

Wow!

California-based pharmaceutical company claims top spot in 26th annual ranking of fastest-growing businesses

https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2020/11/18/deloitte-unveils-2020-north-america-technology-fast-500-rankings

csgohan4

the price is dipping ? is it due to their Q4 results? Why was there such as jump from 15th and 16th of september?

BrockStoker

the price is dipping ? is it due to their Q4 results?

There's much speculation about why the price is dipping. No one really knows for sure, but my suspicion is that it's probably a combination of:

1. After a good run, traders and less informed investors are taking profits.

2. In these times of "Robin Hood" and similar, there are plenty of people who don't know what they are doing.

3. The "surprise" more than expected negative EPS.

4. Manipulation by institutions/MMs trying to make money which ever way the stock price goes.

At the end of the day, none of these things warrant such a dip, but with a relatively small company like ARWR, the price can be volatile and easily manipulated. It's a great company and the science is top notch - THAT is what is important, and the data supports the science and validates ARWR's TRiM platform. In fact, if you look at the data it has been STUNNINGLY GOOD - better than any small molecule biotech can hope to achieve. It suggests that ARWR has functional cures for serious conditions like HBV (Hepatitis B ) and is able to effectively cure people who are obese/have cardiovascular conditions because of obesity. These two indications alone are worth TENS of billions, and so far, no other company has been able to come up with good treatments for them. ARWR on the other hand has data that suggests it's treatment is not just effective, but could actually CURE these conditions, and that is why the share price jumped in September.

It is rather frustrating that the share price is dipping so much, but that it seems is simply the nature of the beast (biotech investing/Wall Street). The most important thing is focus on the science, ignore the noise, and if you can, take advantage of dips by buying.

Those who understand the reality (including myself) can't help but be excited about the breakthroughs. I can't help myself shouting about it, because, for example, I am grateful to this forum/it's members without which I would not have learned the basics of investing, and I would like to "give back a bit", but this world is full of people claiming they have found the "best", so I realize that I will mostly be ignored, and perhaps even "pigeon-holed" into the "he's off his rocker" category - but ARWR is the "real deal" - a small company that is well on it's way to becoming a MAJOR player in the industry. Forget TSLA - check the link I posted in my previous post on this thread.. Where is TSLA in that list? There's no reason that type of growth should not continue as it's supported by the science behind ARWR (and combined with great management/a much better CEO than Musk).

Wall Street is so frustrating at times like this - it's hopeless at seeing what is staring it in the face, but it is a double edged sword, since without that, the share price would already be sky-high and the opportunity as it is right now would not exist. At some point though, WS will realize, and everyone will start to pile in. Patience is the key!

When the latest lot of data was released I was so excited I could not even sleep - all I could do is think "WOW" and all the possibilities just kept running through my head. That was when the penny REALLY dropped for me!

Keep reading/doing your own DD, and when the penny drops (if it has not already! - I'm doing my best here!) you'll know it, because you'll have sleepless nights or get those possibilities running around your head if you are anything like me. I've provided all the links necessary.

Just one more link perhaps - this is a post I made on the ARWR Yahoo Finance MB (my nickname there is "IllusionOfReality") which I think sums up ARWR in a few short paragraphs:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARWR/community?messageId=5c9161fc-cdd7-4692-b287-10d5aa28ef2f&replyId=28a540ef-25e7-4e0c-90f0-0882ce55b871&bcmt=1

bowlhead99

csgohan4 said:

the price is dipping ? is it due to their Q4 results? 

Buy the hope, sell the news

Why was there such as jump from 15th and 16th of september?

On 16th, good results were reported in their phase 2 trial for some people with wonky livers, which the market liked.

coachman12

I am someone ( with a wholly Arts background) who, a few months ago, knew nothing about the developments that have progressed since the Nobel Prize for Medicine was awarded in 2006 for the discovery of RNA interference (RNAi or gene silencing)-----which to my simple non-scientific mind is a different form of DNA-directed gene silencing technique that has huge potential, even at this early stage of experimentation, to be at the cutting edge of silencing viral and carcinomic disease-causing genes ). Hours of research and the guidance of experts, including the acknowledged expert on this Forum lead me to believe that RNAi experimentation and development are an electrifying and life-changing way in which currently untreatable disease-causing genes can be "silenced". It is hard to imagine cancer being treated and cured without the hell of chemotherapy. But that scenario , and the defeat of fatal viruses, are all a reality if RNAi research evolves successfully ( which it shows every sign of ). The Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine is based on RNA techniques.
A few companies out there , including BioNTech which I just mentioned, are at the cutting edge of a whole new way of looking at eradicating previously unassailable diseases.
Which biotech company takes the lead on this startlingly novel approach to the previously unapproachable is the $64,000 question but I have no doubt that Arrowhead is the possible winner, at least in some of the viral and carcinomic breakthroughs. 
Progress is slow, this will not be an overnight breakthrough but IMO it WILL come----and we may then see another Nobel Prize heading into this area of Medicine/Physiology.
I think Arrowhead has all the ingredients which set it up as the frontrunner in the RNAi race and I am continuing to invest-----and not think of any other action until I review Arrowhead's position in mid-2021. 
There are far more knowledgeable MSE posts than this simplistic appraisal, but sometimes one just has to go with something which, once studied in depth, is very compelling------unlike the markets which are never compelling.  

csgohan4

bowlhead99 said:

csgohan4 said:

the price is dipping ? is it due to their Q4 results? 

Buy the hope, sell the news

Why was there such as jump from 15th and 16th of september?

On 16th, good results were reported in their phase 2 trial for some people with wonky livers, which the market liked.

nice terminology BH Made me chuckle

I see their stock also increased when VTX had to withdraw a trial drug, interesting it is affected by their competitors failings

Will continue to keep this on watch list, I still haven't finished with my value investing, which has some way to go until the end of the year

Cus

After a bit of brief reading, why would you choose Arrowhead over Alnylam, or some of the others?

BrockStoker

coachman12 said:

I am someone ( with a wholly Arts background) who, a few months ago, knew nothing about the developments that have progressed since the Nobel Prize for Medicine was awarded in 2006 for the discovery of RNA interference (RNAi or gene silencing)-----which to my simple non-scientific mind is a different form of DNA-directed gene silencing technique that has huge potential, even at this early stage of experimentation, to be at the cutting edge of silencing viral and carcinomic disease-causing genes ). Hours of research and the guidance of experts, including the acknowledged expert on this Forum lead me to believe that RNAi experimentation and development are an electrifying and life-changing way in which currently untreatable disease-causing genes can be "silenced". It is hard to imagine cancer being treated and cured without the hell of chemotherapy. But that scenario , and the defeat of fatal viruses, are all a reality if RNAi research evolves successfully ( which it shows every sign of ). The Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine is based on RNA techniques.
A few companies out there , including BioNTech which I just mentioned, are at the cutting edge of a whole new way of looking at eradicating previously unassailable diseases.
Which biotech company takes the lead on this startlingly novel approach to the previously unapproachable is the $64,000 question but I have no doubt that Arrowhead is the possible winner, at least in some of the viral and carcinomic breakthroughs. 
Progress is slow, this will not be an overnight breakthrough but IMO it WILL come----and we may then see another Nobel Prize heading into this area of Medicine/Physiology.
I think Arrowhead has all the ingredients which set it up as the frontrunner in the RNAi race and I am continuing to invest-----and not think of any other action until I review Arrowhead's position in mid-2021. 
There are far more knowledgeable MSE posts than this simplistic appraisal, but sometimes one just has to go with something which, once studied in depth, is very compelling------unlike the markets which are never compelling.  

Thanks Coach - very well put!

It has to be noted however, that RNAi is not the same tech that Pfizer/BioNTech are using for their Covid vaccine, although they both (obviously) use RNA, but in different ways.

RNAi is very clever in that it taps into an already preexisting pathway in animal cells which is actually a defense system to protect the body from viruses. If anyone has not watched it before, watch this short film about how it works:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh3-NHdjnyQ&feature=emb_logo

The beauty of using a preexisting pathway is that you are not flooding the body with harmful compounds (small molecule drugs), which often do more harm than good, and nearly always have harmful side effects that somewhat diminish the curative properties of a small molecule compound - you might help with one aspect of a condition but the patient has to put up with a counter-productive negative side effect. Small molecules are like a "brute-force" attack on a disease - trying to crack a nut with a sledge hammer, and doing more damage in the process! You only have to look at the label of a conventional bottle of pills/medicine to see the potential (almost always a long list) side-effects!

RNAi is not like this! You are targeting a single (or a few genes) in order to turn them off (or down), and stop a harmful protein being produced - a protein that is the cause of a disease. In this way, because of the accuracy/targeting, you avoid almost all of the bad side-effects of conventional therapies.

Taking the example you mentioned, Coach - cancer is currently treated with a cocktail of small molecules ("chemo"), and I'm sure everyone reading this is aware how devastating those side effects are - they are nearly as bad as the disease itself!

Arrowhead is having it's first stab at treating cancer with it's ARO-HIF2 program - see the pipeline here:

https://arrowheadpharma.com/pipeline/

I have no doubt they will be successful, and with no (significant) side effects. Can you imagine the market reaction?!

We should have our first data on that in the first half of 2021 - they have already started dosing in the phase 1 trial!

With every new data readout ARWR is further validating it's tech/platform. At some point, in the eyes of the market, it will become fully validated, and the share price will explode. In my eyes, from the data we have already seen in humans, it is already fully validated - it's really just a matter of dotting the i's and crossing the t's, for the market's benefit.