Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

1961Nick

While Juniper is technically a 'facelift' you only have to look at the pictures to see that in reality it is as close to a new model as you can get without actually being one. The bigger the change visually & technically, the greater the short term impact will be on the bottom line due to outgoing model discounts & customers waiting for the new model to be launched. With only 2 mass market products & the Y being the market leader, Tesla were clearly going to suffer some financial pain during this period.

The surge in sales numbers when Juniper is in full production & available in all markets will no doubt be put down to Musk backing away from DOGE. Margins may also improve as Juniper initially won't require any incentives - compare 3/Y contract hire prices on the Tesla website.

michaels

1961Nick said:

While Juniper is technically a 'facelift' you only have to look at the pictures to see that in reality it is as close to a new model as you can get without actually being one. The bigger the change visually & technically, the greater the short term impact will be on the bottom line due to outgoing model discounts & customers waiting for the new model to be launched. With only 2 mass market products & the Y being the market leader, Tesla were clearly going to suffer some financial pain during this period.

The surge in sales numbers when Juniper is in full production & available in all markets will no doubt be put down to Musk backing away from DOGE. Margins may also improve as Juniper initially won't require any incentives - compare 3/Y contract hire prices on the Tesla website.

Tesla is already offering incentives on Juniper in the US

zeupater

michaels said:

1961Nick said:

While Juniper is technically a 'facelift' you only have to look at the pictures to see that in reality it is as close to a new model as you can get without actually being one. The bigger the change visually & technically, the greater the short term impact will be on the bottom line due to outgoing model discounts & customers waiting for the new model to be launched. With only 2 mass market products & the Y being the market leader, Tesla were clearly going to suffer some financial pain during this period.

The surge in sales numbers when Juniper is in full production & available in all markets will no doubt be put down to Musk backing away from DOGE. Margins may also improve as Juniper initially won't require any incentives - compare 3/Y contract hire prices on the Tesla website.

Tesla is already offering incentives on Juniper in the US

Hi

Looks like they've got one eye on costs and the other on addressable market then ....

There's no point in planning to expand facilities to double build volumes in Germany (as they seem to have in mind!) if their addressable market remains static.

In doubling build through expansion there could be a logical argument made for a potential ~10% move in prices without negative impact on margin as administrational & fixed overhead costs are diluted and production processes for the new model have likely been further streamlined to chase efficiency ... costs reduced (probably) & capacity increase planned - all that remains is to address & grow market demand ...

HTH - Z

 

Martyn1981

There are also the planned 'more affordable models', due out soon, that might canabilise some 3 & Y sales.

I was watching and waiting for the earnings reports to be published both in Jan (Q4) and then Apr (Q1 last week), to see if they'd revise their timeline, but no, both reports stuck with 2025 H1.

Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup.

Pretty safe to assume (IMO), that these will mostly be lower specced versions of the 3 & Y for now, rather than heavily modified smaller versions .... but you never know.


But never safe to bet on what Elon may be thinking, especially as FSD improves. If the robo-taxi testing goes well in Texas, and they've already been doing some semi-secretive trials for staff, then he will continue to lose interest in cars to sell. And if the robo-cab hits the roads soon, as the robo-taxi testing expands, then he may lean further and further into it.

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

There are also the planned 'more affordable models', due out soon, that might canabilise some 3 & Y sales.

I was watching and waiting for the earnings reports to be published both in Jan (Q4) and then Apr (Q1 last week), to see if they'd revise their timeline, but no, both reports stuck with 2025 H1.

Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup.

Pretty safe to assume (IMO), that these will mostly be lower specced versions of the 3 & Y for now, rather than heavily modified smaller versions .... but you never know.


But never safe to bet on what Elon may be thinking, especially as FSD improves. If the robo-taxi testing goes well in Texas, and they've already been doing some semi-secretive trials for staff, then he will continue to lose interest in cars to sell. And if the robo-cab hits the roads soon, as the robo-taxi testing expands, then he may lean further and further into it.

What has a ring fenced tele operation got to do with FSD?

zeupater

Martyn1981 said:

...
But never safe to bet on what Elon may be thinking, especially as FSD improves. If the robo-taxi testing goes well in Texas, and they've already been doing some semi-secretive trials for staff, then he will continue to lose interest in cars to sell. And if the robo-cab hits the roads soon, as the robo-taxi testing expands, then he may lean further and further into it.

Hi

... and from recent reports FSD itself is reducing production costs, logically resulting in a potential list price impact of somewhere around -$40/vehicle without impacting margins .... (basis - driving from factory to delivery storage area @~$35/direct hour +50% direct employment overhead costs etc = ~$52/hour with ~3 round trips/hour/driver, that's a basic cost of  approx $18/vehicle ... add other overheads, labour efficiencies, downtime and anticipated business margins over costs and your likely looking at around $40-$50/vehicle available to play with without reducing the previously maintainable overall margin%) ... and now all automated! ...

Next up - a scheme to fly to Texas and have automated FSD delivery to the airport or chosen hotel before having the vehicle drive you home ?! ... possibly followed to direct FSD delivery from factory to you door ?? .... they're both potential routes to driving costs/prices down, impacting affordability & therefore expanding the addressable market size that very few manufacturers currently seem to have recognised and have no plan to compete ...

HTH - Z 

Exiled_Tyke

On the subject of 'more affordable models' although not the subject of this particular thread, I know, tomorrow I'm taking a friend to go to look at the new Hyundai Inster.  I'm quite excited by it. 

Magnitio

Exiled_Tyke said:

On the subject of 'more affordable models' although not the subject of this particular thread, I know, tomorrow I'm taking a friend to go to look at the new Hyundai Inster.  I'm quite excited by it. 

Just read a review of the new Renault 5 which also looks pretty good.

Martyn1981

Exiled_Tyke said:

On the subject of 'more affordable models' although not the subject of this particular thread, I know, tomorrow I'm taking a friend to go to look at the new Hyundai Inster.  I'm quite excited by it. 

Had a good look around one at Everything Electric show last year. I'm really impressed. Yes it's small, but fantastically packaged, certainly something we've got our eyes on for future second car. Sadly, back in Dec, they weren't yet in showrooms, when I tried to find one for Wifey to see in person.

I'm also (personally) massively taken by the R5, but I'm genuinely concerned that that's just because of my fond memories of the R5 GT turbo, that I never managed to get when young. 

Exiled_Tyke

Martyn1981 said:

Exiled_Tyke said:

On the subject of 'more affordable models' although not the subject of this particular thread, I know, tomorrow I'm taking a friend to go to look at the new Hyundai Inster.  I'm quite excited by it. 

Had a good look around one at Everything Electric show last year. I'm really impressed. Yes it's small, but fantastically packaged, certainly something we've got our eyes on for future second car. Sadly, back in Dec, they weren't yet in showrooms, when I tried to find one for Wifey to see in person.

Friend put a deposit on one in early December for Jan/Feb delivery.  Still not arrived.  Going to test drive a show room model (which has only just arrived!) to see if she still wants one.