Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

Well, to the surprise of nobody, the rapid shift to EV's in China is having a massive negative impact on legacy auto. But the speed of the transition is incredible. If only we'd been saying this for a decade! 

China Is Done With Global Automakers: "Thanks For Coming"

Panic in Detroit - And Everywhere Else

Ford has lost more than $5 billion in China since 2020. Sales are down 70% from their peak. “We’ve never seen competition like this before,” says CEO Jim Farley.

GM is hurting, too. The former poster child for sunny US-China relations, GM has lost more than $200 million so far this year alone. That marks the first time in two decades that GM’s China operations have printed red ink.

Mary Barra says the situation in China is “unsustainable.”

Stellantis already knows the bitter taste of capitulation. Jeep was forced to beat an ignominious retreat from the China market in 2023 after its joint venture went bankrupt.

Detroit is not alone. Almost every non-Chinese brand – German, Korean, Japanese and French – is feeling shell-shocked as they watch their market shares disappear.

The reality is that China as a growth and profit paradise for global automakers has disappeared. It will never return.

Most of them will be shown the door within the next five years. Some will find the exits even sooner.

I assume the 7% US includes several hundred k Tesla per year so for legacy auto it is even worse.

That's my thinking too. I did read for clues like 'legacy auto', but my interpretation is US brands selling in China, so would include Tesla.

If China can get to ~100% PEV sales by 2030, then I don't see how the non-Chinese companies (apart from Tesla) can change fast enough. Even with their best attempts now, they may simply be too far behind the curve to adapt in time.

I've heard rumours that one of VWG's ideas now is to remove badges off the front of Audi's to help sales, as non-Chinese PEV technology is not well respected in China anymore.

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

Well, to the surprise of nobody, the rapid shift to EV's in China is having a massive negative impact on legacy auto. But the speed of the transition is incredible. If only we'd been saying this for a decade! 

China Is Done With Global Automakers: "Thanks For Coming"

Panic in Detroit - And Everywhere Else

Ford has lost more than $5 billion in China since 2020. Sales are down 70% from their peak. “We’ve never seen competition like this before,” says CEO Jim Farley.

GM is hurting, too. The former poster child for sunny US-China relations, GM has lost more than $200 million so far this year alone. That marks the first time in two decades that GM’s China operations have printed red ink.

Mary Barra says the situation in China is “unsustainable.”

Stellantis already knows the bitter taste of capitulation. Jeep was forced to beat an ignominious retreat from the China market in 2023 after its joint venture went bankrupt.

Detroit is not alone. Almost every non-Chinese brand – German, Korean, Japanese and French – is feeling shell-shocked as they watch their market shares disappear.

The reality is that China as a growth and profit paradise for global automakers has disappeared. It will never return.

Most of them will be shown the door within the next five years. Some will find the exits even sooner.

I assume the 7% US includes several hundred k Tesla per year so for legacy auto it is even worse.

That's my thinking too. I did read for clues like 'legacy auto', but my interpretation is US brands selling in China, so would include Tesla.

If China can get to ~100% PEV sales by 2030, then I don't see how the non-Chinese companies (apart from Tesla) can change fast enough. Even with their best attempts now, they may simply be too far behind the curve to adapt in time.

I've heard rumours that one of VWG's ideas now is to remove badges off the front of Audi's to help sales, as non-Chinese PEV technology is not well respected in China anymore.

Trying to think of an analogy, perhaps it is like kodak branded digital cameras.  Old paradigm company trying to sell replacement technology products but considered to be almost a laughing stock....

Martyn1981

Couple of fun stats for BEV battery costs. We have a decline of around 90% in costs since 2008, and the battery cost element of a BEV falling from ~49% to ~28% (est. 19% by 2030).

EV battery prices have dropped about 90% in 15 years: data

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reported earlier this month that the average price for a lithium-ion EV battery dropped 90 percent between 2008 and 2023 for light-duty vehicles, based on the cost of usable energy. In 2023, EV battery prices were estimted to be about $139 per kWh on a usable-energy basis for production at scale of at least 100,000 units annually, compared to that of $1,415 per kWh in 2008.

Coastalwatch

China certainly don't appear to be backward in coming forward with V2G. I couldn't find any up to date figures for UK but back in 2021 numbers amounted to around 400. Along with others we've come onboard since so nudging figures higher.It would be interesting to find a more recent figure if anyone else has can source!.

Over 1,200 electric cars involved in V2G project in China

As reported by the state news agency Xinhua, these electric cars charge during off-peak times and make electricity available to the grid again in the event of impending bottlenecks. According to the grid operator State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power, participants were recruited for the project through discount vouchers, meaning that 1,277 electric vehicles at 482 charging stations are now involved in the project.

An employee of the grid operator is quoted by Xinhua as saying that the number of electric vehicles in Jiangsu is expected to exceed 10 million units by 2030. “If just 10 per cent of these vehicles participate in reverse discharging, they could provide over 1 million kilowatts of peak-shaving capacity, equivalent to plugging in a 1 million-kilowatt ‘portable power bank’ to the grid.”

https://www.electrive.com/2024/08/16/over-1200-electric-cars-involved-in-v2g-project-in-china/

Netexporter

It's the old VHS/Betamax debacle all over again. Chademo was designed to be bi-directional from the get-go but Type 2 won the battle for general acceptance. I'm expecting the V2G protocols for type 2 to be agreed about the same time that we get fusion energy.

ed110220

Not really news, but I've been enjoying the transport revolution lately with a Vauxhall Combo-E work van. Whenever I drive my personal diesel Kia it feels as though there's something wrong with it because the Combo-E drives so nicely!

Magnitio

Coastalwatch said:

China certainly don't appear to be backward in coming forward with V2G. I couldn't find any up to date figures for UK but back in 2021 numbers amounted to around 400. Along with others we've come onboard since so nudging figures higher.It would be interesting to find a more recent figure if anyone else has can source!.

Over 1,200 electric cars involved in V2G project in China

As reported by the state news agency Xinhua, these electric cars charge during off-peak times and make electricity available to the grid again in the event of impending bottlenecks. According to the grid operator State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power, participants were recruited for the project through discount vouchers, meaning that 1,277 electric vehicles at 482 charging stations are now involved in the project.

An employee of the grid operator is quoted by Xinhua as saying that the number of electric vehicles in Jiangsu is expected to exceed 10 million units by 2030. “If just 10 per cent of these vehicles participate in reverse discharging, they could provide over 1 million kilowatts of peak-shaving capacity, equivalent to plugging in a 1 million-kilowatt ‘portable power bank’ to the grid.”

https://www.electrive.com/2024/08/16/over-1200-electric-cars-involved-in-v2g-project-in-china/

Octopus offers a tariff for V2G that is only compatible with 3 Chademo vehicles and the Wallbox Quasar 1 V2G charger which you can't buy. For those that were on the early trials, some will have move on to newer cars and others have experienced reliability issues with the Wallbox charger. There is a version 2 Wallbox which was previewed 2 years ago but still doesn't appear to be available. I seem to remember reading that the delays are due to formalising standards. Meanwhile, China will simply develop an industry providing the necessary equipment and be ready for when we get our act together.

michaels

Netexporter said:

It's the old VHS/Betamax debacle all over again. Chademo was designed to be bi-directional from the get-go but Type 2 won the battle for general acceptance. I'm expecting the V2G protocols for type 2 to be agreed about the same time that we get fusion energy.

Of course China has not gone with CCS but instead uses GPT which is an evolution of Chademo

Martyn1981

I thought this article was interesting, but also quite positive. Not only have there been a lot of installs in the last year (Guardian wrongly says to July 23 instead of July 24) but the article suggests things are easier to address than they may appear. Hope I'm not reading into this too much, but the difference between installs in some LA areas, v's others, would appear to show that this is a matter of policy, not fundamental problems.

Hope the progress continues, and the 'deserts' are addressed sooner, rather than later.

Electric vehicle public charging ‘deserts’ revealed across Great Britain

North-east Derbyshire and Redditch, in the West Midlands, are among the worst public “charging deserts” for electric vehicles in Great Britain, according to an analysis that found 9.3m households do not have off-street parking where they could install a charger.

More than three-quarters of households that park their cars on the street do not have a public charger for electric vehicles within a five-minute walk, according to the analysis by the Field Dynamics consultancy.

The number of places to plug in is increasing rapidly, with a 46% growth in the number of public chargers across the UK in the year to July 2023, according to the data company ZapMap. However, regulators are concerned about big areas known as “charging deserts”, particularly outside cities, that are not served adequately by the public network.

Field Dynamics’ data reveals often stark differences in coverage within short distances. For instance, Sefton, in Merseyside, only has 3.7% of on-street households covered, making it the fifth worst in Great Britain. Next door, Liverpool reaches 52.5%, putting it among the country’s best areas.

Sefton council said it was working on a charger strategy for later this year, focusing on provision in car parks and community spaces, as well as applying for Levi funding.

Martyn1981

Further to the rumours (in early Aug) it's now confirmed that Chinese PEV sales broke the 50% barrier in July [Note - July not Aug results.]

BEV's grew only a small amount from 2023, growing from 25% to 27%, but PHEV's jumped from 11% to 24%. Looks like PHEV's are eating ICE sales, but would be nice to see BEV's growing a tad faster. Also, China has a lot of decent / longer leccy range PHEV's, which are a great transition vehicle (I feel) for those leaning towards BEV, but not yet ready to pull the trigger.

I thought I saw estimates for Aug at ~54% PEV, but starting to think I imagined it! Update(s) to follow.

Most Car Sales (51%) in China Are Now Plugins! Full Report

Plugin vehicles are all the rage in the Chinese auto market, with plugins scoring 887,000 sales (in a 1.73-million-unit overall market). That’s up 33% year over year (YoY), and the second best month ever, while the overall market is down 3% YoY. And expect August to be a record month….

Looking deeper at the numbers, growth basically came from the PHEV side — BEVs were up by just 6% in June, while PHEVs jumped 87% in the same period, to 419,000 units, which is a record month for the second straight time. Breaking down plugin sales by powertrain, BEVs had 53% of sales, or some 468,000 units, below this year’s average of 58%. Clearly, there’s rising popularity of plugin hybrids in this market.

Share-wise, July saw plugin vehicles hit a record 51.4% market share! Full electrics (BEVs) alone accounted for 27% of the country’s auto sales. This pulled the 2024 share to 45% (26% BEV), and with the market still with plenty of room for growth, the year should end at around 50%.

Comparing this result with July 2023, at the time, the plugin share was 36% (25% BEV), which means that, while BEVs are experiencing moderate growth (25% vs. 27%), the PHEV share is growing faster (11% vs. 24%). At this pace, we should have the Chinese market fully electrified around 2030, if not sooner.