Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

Norway's high BEV sales have become almost boring, but Dec showed some 'fun' numbers as additional costs for vehicles with an ICE kick in now, so sales of straight ICE's, mild HEV's and PHEV's, roughly doubled in December.

Might also make the January results interesting to see, as I recall projections suggesting that straight ICE sales would be close to zero in early to mid 2022. Note, these are just sale trend projections, not predictions.

Norway’s Plugin EVs Take 90% Share In December — Even Facing One-Off Headwinds

Regarding December’s result, the monthly sales volume of BEVs roughly matched their record peak in September 2021, but PHEVs had by far their biggest sales month ever, at over 4,700 units, around double their recent monthly volumes.

This PHEV push happened because new CO2 related emissions taxes come in to effect as of January 1st 2022 in Norway, making many PHEVs (and other CO2 emitting cars) at least 5% to 10% more expensive for new owners to register and tax. So dealers rushed to get these CO2 emitting vehicles sold off in December ahead of the January 1st deadline.

Brands with model line-ups strongly weighted towards PHEVs (and combustion-only vehicles) namely, Toyota, Volvo and BMW, each saw higher than usual sales of non-BEVs in December, in large part due to this fire-sale ahead of the tighter emissions regulations.

Obviously January and February will see the flip side; a drop off in sales of these non-BEV vehicles, giving BEVs an even stronger share of the market.

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

ABrass said:

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

All the reports about the mix of vehicles sold have to be considered with caution given that supply of new cars is currently constrained and total sales are supply-limited not demand-limited.

It could be chips, or if it were not that, whatever the next tight supply item is in the automotive chain.

I have said before in this thread, and been challenged on it, that the manufacturer would favour more expensive cars over cheaper ones if they cannot build them all (a less-extreme version of the car - laptop analogy used above).  EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their retail price point, not because the manufacturers are driving EV for any conscientious reason.

As much as the low supply of cars overall is meaning that percentage EV rises (which we in this thread are in favour of), I wonder what it does to the mix of ICE cars.  My reference point is the local dealer, of a premium brand, with very low stock levels - as of this morning they have 17 "used" cars in stock, all 21 - 71 plate and notional mileage.  Of the 17-cars, three are under £30k while ten are over £45k.  These over £45k cars are big off-road style inefficient 35 mpg polluting petrol-guzzlers.

There is nothing to say that the local dealer I observe is representative, but I can see that it very well could be.  That could well mean that we have a glut of cars at the extreme ends - EVs or gas-guzzlers - and far fewer "standard" cars.  If that is true, the high proportion of gas-guzzlers is likely compensation for the increased sales of EV's in terms of environmental impact.

I agree with para 1-3 but not quite sure where you are going with 4 and 5.

So, good as far as "EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their price point".

So, where I was going after that was that a manufacturer may simply prefer any car at the higher price point and not really care whether that is an EV or an ICE.  This reflects the cars that are going through the local Dealer - mostly £50k vehicles and not the cheaper ones.  Those £50k vehicles are then the big and inefficient ones.

So, some chips happen to end up in higher value £50k EV and some chips happen to end up in higher value £50k ICE - those that make it to an EV are a good news story whereas those making it to the gas-guzzler ICE are a bad news story. 

There seem to be the biggest shortage in supply is small, family ICE's which are, generally, the more efficient types of ICE so the ones that would be preferred from a green perspective.  The preferential drive to higher value £50k cars could well be distorting the ICE market as well as the high-EV market penetration.

Hope that helps explain.


On a different point, I am unsure what these figures mean and how they have been derived:

JKenH said:

Surely, data such as average price for all second-hand Ford Focus is largely meaningless as the mix of cars (age) could be widely different from one period to another.  Much the same applies to many of the models in the list.

The most meaningful change is probably the TM3, perhaps indicating that used models are increasing in availability.

This is just a comment / observation as I realise the data is only shared for information and you are not the originator.

The value of the data is clearly limited when there are no volume figures. The Peugeot 207, The CLK and XK are niche vehicles.

And for the Model 3, the oldest models, and previous years, were heavily skewed to the long range models. Maybe performance ones, I can't remember.

The data is limited, interesting but limited.

Yeah, that small price increase in the TM3 means it's sitting at roughly the purchase price of the TM3 LR from a year or so back. I'm not sure how much higher that SH price can go given that Tesla is still able to produce and deliver cars in reasonably large numbers. A new TM3 LR model would be about £2k more than that average and arrive in ~Feb, so that probably sets an upper limit.

Weird times.

Talking of the TM3, I suspect it is just outside of the top 10 best sellers for the current year and a December surge could see it make the top 10 by volume but possibly it will be the number one selling car by sales value.  Next year will be more interesting, will the Y cannibalise all or most M3 sales?

You were right, it made the top 10, but I'm genuinely shocked that it didn't 'just sneak in' at the bottom as I suspected, but made a last minute dash for the finishing line.

Martyn1981

Ok, here's a story that got me thinking. In fact I've held off posting anything till I could find an article (updated) with additional info.

So, a company called ONE has replaced the battery pack in a Tesla Model S and doubled the range. Sounds good so far, until we find that the battery has roughly twice the capacity, and adds 331kgs. I think this was just to test the technology, as I'm not convinced that the long range S, in particular, needs any more range, especially if there's a decent charging infrastructure - do we really need the extra range, weight and cost? 

But, for me, the huge takeaway is that ONE were able to squeeze in twice the capacity, that's excellent, though of course we need to know the cost, longevity etc.. If the pros outweigh the cons, then longer ranges will be possible for smaller cars, or just smaller packs, opening up weight savings, smaller BEV's, more storage etc.. But overall I think this is one of those stories to just keep an eye on for now, rather than get too excited, perhaps? 


Tesla Model S gets 752 miles of range with ONE’s new energy-dense battery pack

Our Next Energy, also known as ONE, installed one of its battery packs in a Tesla Model S and managed to have it travel 752 miles on a single charge.

The Model S is Tesla’s longest-range vehicle with up to 405 miles of range on a single charge depending on the configuration.

EVandPV

In a ‘world first,’ battery-grade lithium, vital for EVs, is produced from mica in granite

In what it claims is a “world first,” British Lithium has produced lithium at pilot scale from the mica in granite in its new government-backed pilot plant near Roche in Cornwall, England.

https://electrek.co/2022/01/05/in-a-world-first-battery-grade-lithium-vital-for-evs-is-produced-from-mica-in-granite/amp/

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

ABrass said:

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

All the reports about the mix of vehicles sold have to be considered with caution given that supply of new cars is currently constrained and total sales are supply-limited not demand-limited.

It could be chips, or if it were not that, whatever the next tight supply item is in the automotive chain.

I have said before in this thread, and been challenged on it, that the manufacturer would favour more expensive cars over cheaper ones if they cannot build them all (a less-extreme version of the car - laptop analogy used above).  EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their retail price point, not because the manufacturers are driving EV for any conscientious reason.

As much as the low supply of cars overall is meaning that percentage EV rises (which we in this thread are in favour of), I wonder what it does to the mix of ICE cars.  My reference point is the local dealer, of a premium brand, with very low stock levels - as of this morning they have 17 "used" cars in stock, all 21 - 71 plate and notional mileage.  Of the 17-cars, three are under £30k while ten are over £45k.  These over £45k cars are big off-road style inefficient 35 mpg polluting petrol-guzzlers.

There is nothing to say that the local dealer I observe is representative, but I can see that it very well could be.  That could well mean that we have a glut of cars at the extreme ends - EVs or gas-guzzlers - and far fewer "standard" cars.  If that is true, the high proportion of gas-guzzlers is likely compensation for the increased sales of EV's in terms of environmental impact.

I agree with para 1-3 but not quite sure where you are going with 4 and 5.

So, good as far as "EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their price point".

So, where I was going after that was that a manufacturer may simply prefer any car at the higher price point and not really care whether that is an EV or an ICE.  This reflects the cars that are going through the local Dealer - mostly £50k vehicles and not the cheaper ones.  Those £50k vehicles are then the big and inefficient ones.

So, some chips happen to end up in higher value £50k EV and some chips happen to end up in higher value £50k ICE - those that make it to an EV are a good news story whereas those making it to the gas-guzzler ICE are a bad news story. 

There seem to be the biggest shortage in supply is small, family ICE's which are, generally, the more efficient types of ICE so the ones that would be preferred from a green perspective.  The preferential drive to higher value £50k cars could well be distorting the ICE market as well as the high-EV market penetration.

Hope that helps explain.


On a different point, I am unsure what these figures mean and how they have been derived:

JKenH said:

Surely, data such as average price for all second-hand Ford Focus is largely meaningless as the mix of cars (age) could be widely different from one period to another.  Much the same applies to many of the models in the list.

The most meaningful change is probably the TM3, perhaps indicating that used models are increasing in availability.

This is just a comment / observation as I realise the data is only shared for information and you are not the originator.

The value of the data is clearly limited when there are no volume figures. The Peugeot 207, The CLK and XK are niche vehicles.

And for the Model 3, the oldest models, and previous years, were heavily skewed to the long range models. Maybe performance ones, I can't remember.

The data is limited, interesting but limited.

Yeah, that small price increase in the TM3 means it's sitting at roughly the purchase price of the TM3 LR from a year or so back. I'm not sure how much higher that SH price can go given that Tesla is still able to produce and deliver cars in reasonably large numbers. A new TM3 LR model would be about £2k more than that average and arrive in ~Feb, so that probably sets an upper limit.

Weird times.

Talking of the TM3, I suspect it is just outside of the top 10 best sellers for the current year and a December surge could see it make the top 10 by volume but possibly it will be the number one selling car by sales value.  Next year will be more interesting, will the Y cannibalise all or most M3 sales?

You were right, it made the top 10, but I'm genuinely shocked that it didn't 'just sneak in' at the bottom as I suspected, but made a last minute dash for the finishing line.

Quite interesting to compare 2021 (above) with 2020 (below).
The Ford Fiesta and Ford Focus which were nos 1 and 4 in the 2020 full year have completely disappeared from the 2021 standings. Is this because of a massive fall off in demand or is parts shortage the issue? I would be surprised if demand for the Fiesta and Focus has fallen off a cliff. The Corsa which has traditionally been neck and neck with the Fiesta and might have been most likely to steal its sales has has sold less cars than the year before. Ditto the Focus and Golf. So where have those Fiesta and Focus sales gone if lack of demand was the issue? Or is there a genuine parts shortage hitting some manufacturers harder than others?.

Here are the sales figures for the top ten BEV models.

http://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

So, a company called ONE has replaced the battery pack in a Tesla Model S and doubled the range. Sounds good so far, until we find that the battery has roughly twice the capacity, and adds 331kgs.

How much extra space was lost to that higher capacity battery?

If not proportionally twice the physical size, how much extra heat is generated and, more importantly, dissipated?

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

So, a company called ONE has replaced the battery pack in a Tesla Model S and doubled the range. Sounds good so far, until we find that the battery has roughly twice the capacity, and adds 331kgs.

How much extra space was lost to that higher capacity battery?

If not proportionally twice the physical size, how much extra heat is generated and, more importantly, dissipated?

The impression I got from reading several articles is that they replaced the Tesla battery pack with their battery pack, using higher density battery technology, hence why I think we need to see what the cost implications will be, as it may be better, but less cost effective.

Not sure what the situation with heat would be. If the car is still using the same amount of power, then would it generate more heat, or just generate roughly the same heat for twice as long, if driven twice as far on a single charge? Probably depends on the cell technology I suppose, and the rate at which it can discharge. Does it have twice the energy but the same power, or potentially twice the power too which would need more dissipation?

I know nothing!

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

ABrass said:

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

All the reports about the mix of vehicles sold have to be considered with caution given that supply of new cars is currently constrained and total sales are supply-limited not demand-limited.

It could be chips, or if it were not that, whatever the next tight supply item is in the automotive chain.

I have said before in this thread, and been challenged on it, that the manufacturer would favour more expensive cars over cheaper ones if they cannot build them all (a less-extreme version of the car - laptop analogy used above).  EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their retail price point, not because the manufacturers are driving EV for any conscientious reason.

As much as the low supply of cars overall is meaning that percentage EV rises (which we in this thread are in favour of), I wonder what it does to the mix of ICE cars.  My reference point is the local dealer, of a premium brand, with very low stock levels - as of this morning they have 17 "used" cars in stock, all 21 - 71 plate and notional mileage.  Of the 17-cars, three are under £30k while ten are over £45k.  These over £45k cars are big off-road style inefficient 35 mpg polluting petrol-guzzlers.

There is nothing to say that the local dealer I observe is representative, but I can see that it very well could be.  That could well mean that we have a glut of cars at the extreme ends - EVs or gas-guzzlers - and far fewer "standard" cars.  If that is true, the high proportion of gas-guzzlers is likely compensation for the increased sales of EV's in terms of environmental impact.

I agree with para 1-3 but not quite sure where you are going with 4 and 5.

So, good as far as "EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their price point".

So, where I was going after that was that a manufacturer may simply prefer any car at the higher price point and not really care whether that is an EV or an ICE.  This reflects the cars that are going through the local Dealer - mostly £50k vehicles and not the cheaper ones.  Those £50k vehicles are then the big and inefficient ones.

So, some chips happen to end up in higher value £50k EV and some chips happen to end up in higher value £50k ICE - those that make it to an EV are a good news story whereas those making it to the gas-guzzler ICE are a bad news story. 

There seem to be the biggest shortage in supply is small, family ICE's which are, generally, the more efficient types of ICE so the ones that would be preferred from a green perspective.  The preferential drive to higher value £50k cars could well be distorting the ICE market as well as the high-EV market penetration.

Hope that helps explain.


On a different point, I am unsure what these figures mean and how they have been derived:

JKenH said:

Surely, data such as average price for all second-hand Ford Focus is largely meaningless as the mix of cars (age) could be widely different from one period to another.  Much the same applies to many of the models in the list.

The most meaningful change is probably the TM3, perhaps indicating that used models are increasing in availability.

This is just a comment / observation as I realise the data is only shared for information and you are not the originator.

The value of the data is clearly limited when there are no volume figures. The Peugeot 207, The CLK and XK are niche vehicles.

And for the Model 3, the oldest models, and previous years, were heavily skewed to the long range models. Maybe performance ones, I can't remember.

The data is limited, interesting but limited.

Yeah, that small price increase in the TM3 means it's sitting at roughly the purchase price of the TM3 LR from a year or so back. I'm not sure how much higher that SH price can go given that Tesla is still able to produce and deliver cars in reasonably large numbers. A new TM3 LR model would be about £2k more than that average and arrive in ~Feb, so that probably sets an upper limit.

Weird times.

Talking of the TM3, I suspect it is just outside of the top 10 best sellers for the current year and a December surge could see it make the top 10 by volume but possibly it will be the number one selling car by sales value.  Next year will be more interesting, will the Y cannibalise all or most M3 sales?

You were right, it made the top 10, but I'm genuinely shocked that it didn't 'just sneak in' at the bottom as I suspected, but made a last minute dash for the finishing line.

May explain why it feels locally as if every other car is an M3.

Will be interesting to see what the arrival of the even more expensive but potentially desirable M Y does to Tesla sales
Also interesting is just how much of total car sales value Tesla has captured at the expanse of the traditional manufacturers.  Would be fascinating to see a complete breakdown by make and model - somehow those missing Ford sales are probably not going to Tesla but perhaps BMW, Audi and Mercedes sales of 'saloon' type models have been hit badly?

JKenH

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

ABrass said:

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

All the reports about the mix of vehicles sold have to be considered with caution given that supply of new cars is currently constrained and total sales are supply-limited not demand-limited.

It could be chips, or if it were not that, whatever the next tight supply item is in the automotive chain.

I have said before in this thread, and been challenged on it, that the manufacturer would favour more expensive cars over cheaper ones if they cannot build them all (a less-extreme version of the car - laptop analogy used above).  EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their retail price point, not because the manufacturers are driving EV for any conscientious reason.

As much as the low supply of cars overall is meaning that percentage EV rises (which we in this thread are in favour of), I wonder what it does to the mix of ICE cars.  My reference point is the local dealer, of a premium brand, with very low stock levels - as of this morning they have 17 "used" cars in stock, all 21 - 71 plate and notional mileage.  Of the 17-cars, three are under £30k while ten are over £45k.  These over £45k cars are big off-road style inefficient 35 mpg polluting petrol-guzzlers.

There is nothing to say that the local dealer I observe is representative, but I can see that it very well could be.  That could well mean that we have a glut of cars at the extreme ends - EVs or gas-guzzlers - and far fewer "standard" cars.  If that is true, the high proportion of gas-guzzlers is likely compensation for the increased sales of EV's in terms of environmental impact.

I agree with para 1-3 but not quite sure where you are going with 4 and 5.

So, good as far as "EV's tend to be more expensive, so get preferential chip supply because of their price point".

So, where I was going after that was that a manufacturer may simply prefer any car at the higher price point and not really care whether that is an EV or an ICE.  This reflects the cars that are going through the local Dealer - mostly £50k vehicles and not the cheaper ones.  Those £50k vehicles are then the big and inefficient ones.

So, some chips happen to end up in higher value £50k EV and some chips happen to end up in higher value £50k ICE - those that make it to an EV are a good news story whereas those making it to the gas-guzzler ICE are a bad news story. 

There seem to be the biggest shortage in supply is small, family ICE's which are, generally, the more efficient types of ICE so the ones that would be preferred from a green perspective.  The preferential drive to higher value £50k cars could well be distorting the ICE market as well as the high-EV market penetration.

Hope that helps explain.


On a different point, I am unsure what these figures mean and how they have been derived:

JKenH said:

Surely, data such as average price for all second-hand Ford Focus is largely meaningless as the mix of cars (age) could be widely different from one period to another.  Much the same applies to many of the models in the list.

The most meaningful change is probably the TM3, perhaps indicating that used models are increasing in availability.

This is just a comment / observation as I realise the data is only shared for information and you are not the originator.

The value of the data is clearly limited when there are no volume figures. The Peugeot 207, The CLK and XK are niche vehicles.

And for the Model 3, the oldest models, and previous years, were heavily skewed to the long range models. Maybe performance ones, I can't remember.

The data is limited, interesting but limited.

Yeah, that small price increase in the TM3 means it's sitting at roughly the purchase price of the TM3 LR from a year or so back. I'm not sure how much higher that SH price can go given that Tesla is still able to produce and deliver cars in reasonably large numbers. A new TM3 LR model would be about £2k more than that average and arrive in ~Feb, so that probably sets an upper limit.

Weird times.

Talking of the TM3, I suspect it is just outside of the top 10 best sellers for the current year and a December surge could see it make the top 10 by volume but possibly it will be the number one selling car by sales value.  Next year will be more interesting, will the Y cannibalise all or most M3 sales?

You were right, it made the top 10, but I'm genuinely shocked that it didn't 'just sneak in' at the bottom as I suspected, but made a last minute dash for the finishing line.

May explain why it feels locally as if every other car is an M3.

Will be interesting to see what the arrival of the even more expensive but potentially desirable M Y does to Tesla sales
Also interesting is just how much of total car sales value Tesla has captured at the expanse of the traditional manufacturers.  Would be fascinating to see a complete breakdown by make and model - somehow those missing Ford sales are probably not going to Tesla but perhaps BMW, Audi and Mercedes sales of 'saloon' type models have been hit badly?

The only BEVs I tend to notice are M3s. They are quite distinctive driving towards you and are always topping up for free at Tesco. 

The MY makes the M3 look good value which it is compared to most other EVs with decent range (Kona, ENiro excepted). The MY doesn’t look that good value compared to the i4, Ionic5, Enyaq, Arya or even the eTron. It will sell to the Tesla fanboys though.The Zoe looks great value on a miles/£ basis, just a shame about the NCap score. The Dacia Spring will probably kill it though. 

EVandPV

Hopefully the first of many ....

Shell Turning London Petrol Station Into EV Hub

In Fulham, central London, we’re currently converting one of our conventional fuel service stations into an electric vehicle charging hub that will feature 10 high powered, 175kW charge points. These ultra-rapid charge points can deliver power up to three times faster than rapid 50kW chargers, which typically charge from 0-80% in 30 minutes.

“To ensure that customers can use the time they spend charging more effectively, the hub will also offer a comfortable seating area for waiting EV drivers. We’ll have a Costa Coffee store and an extensive Little Waitrose & Partners shop offer so that our customers can enjoy a cup of their favourite crafted coffee, grab a snack, pick up dinner or stock up on essentials while they wait.

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/01/06/shell-turning-london-petrol-station-into-ev-hub/amp/