The Alternative Green Energy Thread

GreatApe

JKenH wrote: »

The busiest travel weekend of the year was an interesting test for Tesla's fast-charging network.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/31274/more-teslas-on-the-road-meant-hours-long-supercharger-lines-over-thanksgiving

One Facebook clip shows a line measuring roughly a quarter mile in length, consisting of 50-odd Teslas waiting at a Supercharger in Kettleman City, California

Plug in hybrids would solve this problem
As little as 50 mile range EV followed by 500 miles petrol (it takes only 30kg of petrol to do 500 miles). Average UK daily mileage is just 20 miles

Tesla has become a flex brand that's why people buy them and they could probably sell as many EVs as all other brands combined (if they had the capacity and also lower price points)

They should release a model 2 which is a clone of a model 3 but instead of 250mile range just 50 mile range plug in hybrid. Would weigh less and would cost 1/5th as much to build the battery powertrain (80% fewer battery packs power electronics and even a smaller 100HP motor would be fine). The petrol motor at the front would weigh less and cost less than the 80% mass decrease in batteries

Such a model 2 if it could be sold at $33,000 rather than the $40,000 of the model 3 would do very well. The car would still be 95% annual mileage electric. One tank of petrol would probably last two years for most drivers. No range worries at all. Using just 1/5th as many batteries would allow 5x as many to be built in a battery constraint world

Would be very reliable a typical car is perhaps on for 10,000 hours in its life
A plug in hybrid ICE is probably on for just 500 hours in its life
Toyota have 100,000 mile warranty for their hybrids so reliability of drivetrain and batteries doesn't seem to be an issue

Plug in RAV4 is coming next year
RAV4 being a very popular SUV in the USA
More RAV4 sales per year than model 3 sales
Plug in Hybrid version meant to be the fastest and cleanest RAV4

I didn't believe much in the petrol car ban
But it will be doable and doable rapidly if we go to plug in hybrids
Even the whole world production could be plug in by 2030
A single giga factory with 100GWh cell production capacity is enough for 10 million plug ins
Therefore even the biggest car manufacturing companies like Toyota or VW would need just 1-2 battery factories. Much more likely than full BEVs

GreatApe

Also looks like solar on BEVs/Hybrids would work reasonably well in sunny countries and most the world live in sunny areas.

Musk says the Tesla truck can self charge 15 miles a day presumably in a sunny place like California
The model 3 should be able to do roughly the same with the roof
Solar cells can be manufactured very light just 2mm thick so won't add mass

Costs are also very low perhaps as low as 50 cents per watt installed (no need for an inverter or land or permitting or significant labor or grid connection or...) so to add a 700Wp system would only cost as little as $350

A plug in solar model 2 with 15 miles a day self charge = 5,000 miles covered by self charge
Helping the grid and keeping costs down even more for consumers
1,000 units generated saving $170 per car in California
Over a period of 20 years = $3,400 saved

Even in the UK it would be worth it if it only cost £350
Might only generate 400 units a year but that is still a impressive 1,600 miles per year self charge.
Covers nearly a quarter of annual mileage from the sun.

While it makes more sense to have a given solar panel on your roof if the cost is $3/watt on your roof Vs $0.50/watt on your car then having them on the car makes sense. Plus the world isn't at solar PV manufacturing capacity so it's not one or the other.

joefizz

GreatApe wrote: »

They should release a model 2 which is a clone of a model 3

It has been said that opening the factory in China will do just that....
...only not by Tesla...


I see your mini nukes idea got further go ahead during the summer. Brexit contingency planning? bailing out rolls royce? Genuine?

GreatApe

joefizz wrote: »

I see your mini nukes idea got further go ahead during the summer. Brexit contingency planning? bailing out rolls royce? Genuine?

I don't think the UK is at all likely to be able to develop a new generation of nukes
UK electricity demand is just too low. Nuclear

The small chance for nuclear is naval reactors built in large numbers at a shipyard
These floating offshore reactors could be viable since it's ready built any customer could have delivery and grid tied within perhaps 6 months. If a country decides it doesn't want nuclear it can just sell the reactors which can be towed to another customer/owner

The size and mass of naval reactors are tiny but powerful
A US nuclear sub weighs just 7,900 tons and only a fraction of that is the reactor and electricity generation most of it is a war machine and weapons radar propulsion sonar torpedoes etc

A nuke only sub might have a mass of only 1,000 tons
Put it in place let it operate at 100% for 33 years before refueling for another 33 years
Financing for a ready built nuke would be cheap because all the risk has gone
The big problem with new nukes is financing and uncertainty of times.
With naval reactors ordered and paid for on deliver all that goes away

China should commit itself to producing 1 such reactor every other day
600MWt 200MWe. Their electricity demand is growing so rapidly these nukes wouldn't even cover annual additional demand (enough to cover 70% of demand growth in electricity)

Producing 180 reactors a year these would be really cheap perhaps even cheaper than CCGTs capital cost. So $1/watt but operating at 90% CF. By comparison HOC is closer to $8/watt. Just the wage arbitrage cuts costs to 1/3rd and if this mass production is 1/3rd the cost of a one off build that gets a price towards the $1/watt mark.

They don't even need to go much beyond their back yard for potential demand
India Pakistan and China combined will in a not too distant future have a population of 3.5 billion that's 50X UK an area where electricity demand will be growing rapidly for at least the next 30-50 years

JKenH

EVandPV wrote: »

That is a bit concerning.
I don't know much about the Leaf but the 22kwh Renault Zoe has a BMS that needs occasional updates and there's been reports of the SOH actually increasing after the update.
Presumably, the SOH reported by the BMS was just out of whack and the update sorted it.

I have found this article which suggests the problem was indeed the BMS reporting an incorrect state of charge and Nissan have had a campaign to update the software of the affected vehicles.

https://flipthefleet.org/2018/30-kwh-nissan-leaf-firmware-update-to-correct-capacity-reporting/

EVandPV

JKenH wrote: »

I have found this article which suggests the problem was indeed the BMS reporting an incorrect state of charge and Nissan have had a campaign to update the software of the affected vehicles.

https://flipthefleet.org/2018/30-kwh-nissan-leaf-firmware-update-to-correct-capacity-reporting/

Good to hear !
So yours should be about 97% then, going by the formula.

JKenH

EVandPV wrote: »

Good to hear !
So yours should be about 97% then, going by the formula.

It is good news but my battery wasn’t on the list of defective ones so it is up to me to try and improve things. I have got its SoH up by 1% so far (now 93.79%) and Hx up by a bit more. On one of the Leaf forums there is someone else with a battery same age and miles as mine with a SoH of 85% and his battery wasn’t on the list either.

It is worrying that it is only Leafs that are suffering this sort of degradation but I am quite philosophical about losing 2-3 % a year. For most journeys it won’t be an issue if the range drops from 100 to 80 miles. Still it would be nice to have a battery that doesn’t degrade at all like in a Tesla. I do find it interesting that Tesla were able to release more battery capacity with an over the air update which confirms they have some hidden capacity.

GreatApe

Plug in hybrid Chevy volt 50 mile on electric then petrol kicks in
Owners and reviews seem to be very positive

https://youtu.be/wCXfK6fZBgs

But they didn't sell too well as the trend is for increased truck and SUV sales

People don't realise how cheap fuel actually is.
A Toyota Corolla that gets 52mpg in the US where petrol is $2.50 costs just 4.8 cents per mile in fuel

Average electricity cost is 12 cents / 4 / 85% charging efficiency = 3.5 cents per mile on electricity for a Tesla or a Chevy volt

There is only a 1.3 cent per mile saving
The first owner might keep it for 3 years and do 30,000 miles = $390 saving going electric
Hardly anything

Doubt it will happen but USA petrol prices if they went to EU levels of ~$6/gal would have a significant impact in the types of cars sold and average mileage. F150 best selling truck in the USA is about 1/3rd the mpg of an efficient petrol sedan like the Prius or corolla

JKenH

While looking for EV videos on YouTube I came across this. Having been a schoolboy through the 1962/3 winter the threat of another Ice age seemed very real. This was much more scary than Global Warming.
https://youtu.be/zSDLRm3jhc8

joefizz

GreatApe wrote: »

I don't think the UK is at all likely to be able to develop a new generation of nukes
UK electricity demand is just too low. Nuclear

The small chance for nuclear is naval reactors built in large numbers at a shipyard

Search the rolls royce site. They have already identified placement areas in the uk for a shore based version of the trident RR pwr mini reactors.


Every post apocalypic novel Ive ever read always has someone finding a nuclear sub/boat that miraculously survived whatever virus/zombie/meteor apocalypse and is now powering a small town from the harbour.


Its only stage 1 funding at the minute but who knows.