The Alternative Green Energy Thread

joefizz

GreatApe wrote: »

The point about the last peak in oil prices is that it was.....a peak....one which was unsustainable

It's better to look at say a rolling average of oil prices

No lets not. Its the peaks and lows which have the biggest influence on long term thinking (which is my point). It doesnt matter that they are unsustainable, they have influence on companies trading on credit,demand, jobs, future development plans, cost of loans, ratings for insurance etc etc. The average price doesnt really affect changes.
If the oil price does drop next year to 40 usd then it is unsustainable for a lot of the industry (including large parts of shale) and if it drops even momentarily to 25 that could be catastrophic for companies/jobs etc. That will play out in higher prices further down the business cycle. The peak highs will also be unsustainable but the settle figures wont. Peak highs might kick off research into areas (deep water etc) where its not sustainable at current or even double current prices.
It will also have an effect on renewables and may hasten the switch. I dont think its much of a coincidence in selecting of certain dates for targets. After that its anyones guess as to whether prices will stay high or just be taxed sky high to make up the difference.



Ive bought oil for home during peak periods and it doesnt matter what the trends are or anything else, what matters is how it affects my pocket there and then. I bought oil at the start of the month and it was the cheapest its been in over 2 years. If it drops next year I'll get another 2nd hand tank and fill that as well because along with reduction in usage, I might be able to stretch 2 tanks out 5 years at which point the boiler should be coming up for replacement anyway.

Cardew

joefizz wrote: »

And the Russian Central Bank has said it could go as low as 25 dollars next year. I dont get your point as to how that doesnt mean it wont go to 200 at some point in the next 10 years when it was in todays terms close to that 10 years ago? Possibility/probability.

You based your argument on taking the highest ever price for oil and applying Bank of England inflation figures to reach $200.


Like most commodities, oil is influenced by other factors. In this case new production technologies(Shale/Fracking) will tend to keep prices stable and renewable energy reduce the demand for oil.


I was reading an article about salt recently:

centuries-worth of cultures who coveted salt as a precious, rare, and indispensible commodity. To have salt readily available is a very recent luxury—a luxury by which Egyptian pharaohs and European kings would have been astonished.

I just bought a 20Kg bag for salting my drive for £6;)

Kernel_Sanders

Cardew wrote: »

Brent crude was $1.17 in 1946

That's amazing, not least because the Brent oil field wasn't discovered until 1971

Cardew

Kernel_Sanders wrote: »

That's amazing, not least because the Brent oil field wasn't discovered until 1971

Perhaps that was why it was so cheap, you had to drill for it yourself;)


My bad! let's try 'Crude'.

joefizz

Cardew wrote: »

You based your argument on taking the highest ever price for oil and applying Bank of England inflation figures to reach $200.

No, I didnt. Read my words again.

Cardew

joefizz wrote: »

No, I didnt. Read my words again.

Originally Posted by joefizz
is it a viable option for when the price of oil hits 200 odd dollars in the not too distant future...

Originally Posted by joefizz
Oil all time high was 145 in 2008 so with 20 years low inflation 200 is on the conservative side (using the boe inflation calculator it would be nearly that now)

Originally Posted by joefizz
I dont get your point as to how that doesnt mean it wont go to 200 at some point in the next 10 years when it was in todays terms close to that 10 years ago?

I have read your words and it seems to me that you believe oil will reach $200. If that is not what you meant, then let us drop the subject.

joefizz

Cardew wrote: »

I have read your words and it seems to me that you believe oil will reach $200. If that is not what you meant, then let us drop the subject.

Correct. But I didnt get there by taking previous highs and multiplying by any factor which was your last point.


Thanks for clarifying what I actually said.

JKenH

JKenH wrote: »

I imagine land is a bit expensive in Warrington. Isn’t that Footballers Wives territory. NIMBYs perhaps.

Apologies Mart, I posted on the G&E thread accidentally. Only just realised. No mischief intended.

Ken

JKenH

Interesting video for those of us who like to listen to both sides of an argument. My apologies to those who will be offended by the content.

https://youtu.be/ewJ6TI8ccAw


Jose Duarte, warned his fellow scientists about the negative consequences of claiming consensus. He said:

“It is ill advised to report a consensus as though it is an aggregation of independent judgments. Humans are an ultrasocial species, and dissent is far costlier than assent to a perceived majority… A scientist who contests the prevailing narrative on human-caused warming, or merely produces smaller estimates, will likely end up on a McCarthyite blacklist of ‘deniers’. Self-described mainstream climate scientists refer the public to such lists, implicitly endorsing the smearing of their colleagues. This is disturbing, and unheard of in other sciences.”

The unfortunate truth is that there is strong political pressure for climate experts not to question claims of impending doom. Those who do so face steep personal and professional costs, including a barrage of abuse that can be highly unpleasant for people who mostly wanted to devote their lives to the quiet pursuit of knowledge not to noisy polemics. And that means we should listen carefully to them when they feel compelled to speak out anyway.

Whether they represent 50%, or 10%, or 3% of experts, what matters is the evidence they bring and the quality of their arguments.

And on that, I would hope we have 100 percent agreement.

joefizz

JKenH wrote: »

Interesting video for those of us who like to listen to both sides of an argument.

Part of my work is in the media and for my sins have held a uk press card in the past and there were always three sides of an argument, your side, their side and the truth.